Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

I've stepped out the cap analysis game for a bit, but never was there a time when it's needed now. The NFL's $36 M adjustment to the Redskins' salary cap figure hurts, but this should not thrust the team into terrible difficulty. Redskins fans would be wise to take a collective breath.

Here's some math, sometimes seeing the numbers and how they can still work allows for some relaxation. For these purposes, I'm going to assume the Redskins will choose to spread their $36 M adjustment evenly over two years, taking $18 M each year.

[B]Cap Space - March 6: $34.7 M[/B]
NFL Adjustment: ($18.0 M)
Atogwe Release: $3.6 M
Sellers Release: $1.0 M
[U]Rule of 51 Adj: ($0.8 M)[/U]
[B]Estimated Cap Space - March 12: $18.5 M[/B]

We currently have in the neighborhood of $18.5 M in cap space. One must allow for the expected resigning of a few key players, I'm using gut feel for their expected cap hits:

Rex Grossman: ($1.0 M)
London Fletcher: ($6.0 M)
Adam Carriker: ($2.5 M)
Rookie Pool: ($7.0 M)
[U]Rule of 51 Adj: $3.9 M[/U]
[B]Estimated Cap Space after Retentions: $5.9 M[/B]

So after we retain just a handful of additional players and pay our rookies, we're down to only $5.9 M of space. But here's where the news gets better. More releases and restructures can take place to save more space. I'd expect some, not all, of these moves to take place:

Cooley Restructure: $3.0 M
Fred Davis Extension: $2.0 M
DeAngelo Hall Release: $6.0 M
Stephen Bowen Restructure: $2.0 M
Will Montgomery Bonus Restructure: $2.0 M
[U]Josh Wilson Restructure: $2.0 M[/U]
[B]Potential Room Created: $17.0 M[/B]

[B]Potential Cap Space: $22.9 M[/B]

So making all of these moves, and others I'm likely not thinking of, can get us back to $22.9 M in space. So now you simply make economic choices. Would you use $7M in space to sign VJax and kick some cap dollars into the future through restructures? Or would you forego VJax and take the cap medicine now? Do you pass on London and sign several other lower $ players instead?

This big NFL adjustment hurts - the Redskins won't feel as free wheeling as they otherwise might have. But this much is certain: the flexibility still exists to continue making the team over in Shanahan's image. It's not a cap hell situation.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

i like it. what would bowen's new new look like?

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

Thank you for the collective breath of fresh air.

Still pissed, how this went down, and think the league needs to do something, but that makes it a lot more palatable.

Great post Schneed. A lot of folks need to relax. We're not in cap hell, and we're definitely not backing out of the Rams deal (very confused why anyone thinks this is even a possibility).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

yea theres still alot of flexibility, if they really like a few guys this year, whos to say they dont split the 36 down the middle maybe 25 next year and only 11 this year? it depends on who and how hard they are targeting.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

Got this email to me from a guy on twitter

MANAGER BRUCE ALLEN REGARDING MEDIA REPORTS OF SALARY CAP ADJUSTMENTS: “The Washington Redskins have received no written documentation from the NFL concerning adjustments to the team salary cap in 2012 as reported in various media outlets. Every contract entered into by the club during the applicable periods complied with the 2010 and 2011 collective bargaining agreements and, in fact, were approved by the NFL commissioner’s office. We look forward to free agency the the draft and the coming football season.”

Now either Danny has threatened legal action and they are backing down or BA is feeding us a line of bullshit.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

[quote=Mattyk;896554]Great post Schneed. A lot of folks need to relax. We're not in cap hell, and [B]we're definitely not backing out of the Rams deal[/B] (very confused why anyone thinks this is even a possibility).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/quote]

One of the beat reporters flubbed their words on this one.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

Besides, I didn't want a mass spending spree anyway. I want a big name WR and some safety help, that's about it. Otherwise, I want Allen and Shanahan to continue building talent through the draft.

Trying to transform the team with an overnight spending spree is how we've gotten into trouble in years past. I think the media overstates Shanahan's need to produce a winner in the third year of his contract, I think Snyder still has his back even if he goes 6-10 this year.

But honestly, I think winning record is more than attainable just through the addition of Robert Griffin, the rest of the draft class, a big name WR, and most importantly - HEALTH.

A spending spree just isn't wise, anyway. Philadelphia Eagles circa 2011, anyone?

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

[quote=CapitalDefense;896557]Got this email to me from a guy on twitter

MANAGER BRUCE ALLEN REGARDING MEDIA REPORTS OF SALARY CAP ADJUSTMENTS: “The Washington Redskins have received no written documentation from the NFL concerning adjustments to the team salary cap in 2012 as reported in various media outlets. Every contract entered into by the club during the applicable periods complied with the 2010 and 2011 collective bargaining agreements and, in fact, were approved by the NFL commissioner’s office. We look forward to free agency the the draft and the coming football season.”

Now either Danny has threatened legal action and they are backing down or BA is feeding us a line of bullshit.[/quote]

This, is going to get interesting. I agree 100% with BA. I wonder how Vinny would handle this.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

I appreciate the update Schneed. This makes things brighter in terms of practical reality.

However, what the NFL did to us was wrong, no matter how much cap we have left.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

We will never be in "Cap hell " danny can buy his way out of anything, taking 18 million away would only derail there plans for a couple of years. Actually shanny has done a nice job not going overboard with high priced guys since he got here.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

[quote=Lotus;896567]I appreciate the update Schneed. This makes things brighter in terms of practical reality.

However, what the NFL did to us was wrong, no matter how much cap we have left.[/quote]

Bingo, its not the cap number, its the knife in the back right before our yearly Redskins Christmas in March. :)

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

Well Allen is now saying there's been no written communication regarding such a penalty. Makes me wonder if there's been any verbal communication.

But it sounds like Allen is ready for business as usual in free agency. We'll see where this goes...

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

[quote=Schneed10;896563]Besides, I didn't want a mass spending spree anyway. I want a big name WR and some safety help, that's about it. Otherwise, I want Allen and Shanahan to continue building talent through the draft.

Trying to transform the team with an overnight spending spree is how we've gotten into trouble in years past. I think the media overstates Shanahan's need to produce a winner in the third year of his contract, I think Snyder still has his back even if he goes 6-10 this year.

But honestly, I think winning record is more than attainable just through the addition of Robert Griffin, the rest of the draft class, a big name WR, and most importantly - HEALTH.

A spending spree just isn't wise, anyway. Philadelphia Eagles circa 2011, anyone?[/quote]
No, no, no but you can't get your franchise QB and not protect him or give him somebody to throw it to. You currently have no star ILB nor a single starting safety.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

[quote=Schneed10;896577]Well Allen is now saying there's been no written communication regarding such a penalty. Makes me wonder if there's been any verbal communication.

But it sounds like Allen is ready for business as usual in free agency. We'll see where this goes...[/quote]

They probably overnight FedEx'd it. That's how the send suspension and fine notices to players, I believe. Such crap by the league, if true; 24 hours before free agency.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

[quote=CapitalDefense;896580]No, no, no but you can't get your franchise QB and not protect him or give him somebody to throw it to. You currently have no star ILB nor a single starting safety.[/quote]

My outline in this thread includes a solid contract to retain Fletcher. And the point of this is to show that the team can create the space to upgrade at safety and on the offensive line, if they really want to.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

Welcome back Schneed you are a true cap brother. :grouphug:

I'm not yet ready to factor in the BS cap charge, especially given the Skins' reaction.

I did an update with Sellers and Atogwe. I had Atogwe's deadcap hit at $400K on my latest sheets, but upon further review I think it is actually zero. This coincides with Rotoworld and I expect PCinOZ to have the same when he updates.

I currently have us at $39.2M cap room.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

Good stuff thanks for talking me down of the ledge.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

[quote=CrazyCanuck;896637]Welcome back Schneed you are a true cap brother. :grouphug:

I'm not yet ready to factor in the BS cap charge, especially given the Skins' reaction.

I did an update with Sellers and Atogwe. I had Atogwe's deadcap hit at $400K on my latest sheets, but upon further review I think it is actually zero. This coincides with Rotoworld and I expect PCinOZ to have the same when he updates.

I currently have us at $39.2M cap room.[/quote]

Thanks. I think you're smart to leave the adjustment out of the equation, because reading the tea leaves, it's clear that the Cowboys and Redskins talked and are forming a united front against the NFL on this one. They both issued nearly identical statements at the same time. I think they'll fight this adjustment tooth and nail. I wouldn't put it past the 'Skins to approach free agency as if this isn't even happening, and count on the lawyers to make it go away later.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

[quote=Schneed10;896563][B]Besides, I didn't want a mass spending spree anyway. I want a big name WR and some safety help, that's about it. Otherwise, I want Allen and Shanahan to continue building talent through the draft[/B].

Trying to transform the team with an overnight spending spree is how we've gotten into trouble in years past. I think the media overstates Shanahan's need to produce a winner in the third year of his contract, I think Snyder still has his back even if he goes 6-10 this year.

But honestly, I think winning record is more than attainable just through the addition of Robert Griffin, the rest of the draft class, a big name WR, and most importantly - HEALTH.

A spending spree just isn't wise, anyway. Philadelphia Eagles circa 2011, anyone?[/quote]

could not agree more with this statment.

thanks for the op, very helpful, and i agree on 99% of your moves as well

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

Nice to see cooler heads prevailing on here. Great update Schneed, and thanks for clarifying everything in an easy to read manner.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

I still feel sick

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

[quote=Schneed10;896673]Thanks. I think you're smart to leave the adjustment out of the equation, because reading the tea leaves, it's clear that the Cowboys and Redskins talked and are forming a united front against the NFL on this one. They both issued nearly identical statements at the same time. I think they'll fight this adjustment tooth and nail. I wouldn't put it past the 'Skins to approach free agency as if this isn't even happening, and count on the lawyers to make it go away later.[/quote]
You and CC need to "get a room".
.....with a calculator
....and access to Excel

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

[quote=cpayne5;896582]They probably overnight FedEx'd it. That's how the send suspension and fine notices to players, I believe. Such crap by the league, if true; 24 hours before free agency.[/quote]

If you're right about the overnight Fedex, then that would mean that the Skins and Cowboys will be notified that they have been penalized sometime on the [U]same day[/U] that FA starts. What a mean-spirited kick in the teeth that is!

Well, Roger Goodell and the owners who pushed for these penalties have picked a fight with two men and two franchises who are formidable enough when they stand alone. Now, it looks like the Skins and the Cowboys are going to fight this together.

For one thing, I don't believe for a second that there weren't a number of deals made during the uncapped year by teams other than the four teams that were penalized that violated the so-called "gentlemen's agreement" but were conveniently overlooked. Not only is the timing of these penalties unfair but I think that the penalties may have been selectively assessed against the "worst" offenders.

Another thing that this action does is to highlight possible collusion among NFL owners. That's because the NFL is apparently trying to punish franchises that did not collude with the others. Congress might be interested in that.

If the NFL doesn't back off, I think that blood will flow before this is over.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

[quote=Schneed10;896673]Thanks. I think you're smart to leave the adjustment out of the equation, because reading the tea leaves, it's clear that the Cowboys and Redskins talked and are forming a united front against the NFL on this one. They both issued nearly identical statements at the same time. I think they'll fight this adjustment tooth and nail. I wouldn't put it past the 'Skins to approach free agency as if this isn't even happening, and count on the lawyers to make it go away later.[/quote]That and a bottom line calculation won't be necessary until 2013, since we're free to pay off as much as we want this year.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

I just thought of something. Since you can now roll over cap space from year to year, we can literally put the entire $36 million onto next year, while we go through with a law suit or whatever we are going to do. Then, say we end up with about $15-20 million in cap space after free agency and the draft (as long as we don't go too crazy), we can roll all of that over into next year. So it will still basically be splitting the money 50-50 each year in a worst case scenario. Best case is we win the law suit and keep all the money for ourselves.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

[quote=Hog1;896715]You and CC need to "get a room".
.....with a calculator
....and access to Excel[/quote]

Lol, don't forget Quickbooks :D

Seriously though you guys do great work. If I had to put together those numbers, man I think I might end up with a stroke.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

Why no Trent Williams restructure. From what I can see he's on the books for $12 million with a $1 million release fee. Thats an awful lot of base salary that could be converted into a bonus.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

[quote=Dirtbag59;897381]Why no Trent Williams restructure. From what I can see he's on the books for $12 million with a $1 million release fee. Thats an awful lot of base salary that could be converted into a bonus.[/quote]

Excellent question. They should definitely explore that option, especially with his questionable future and all.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

Schneed, on Monty's deal -- there was no signing bonus involved with his new contract, 4 years/ $12mil. So it'll be interesting to see if they restructure and now offer him some guaranteed money?

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

[quote=Dirtbag59;897381]Why no Trent Williams restructure. From what I can see he's on the books for $12 million with a $1 million release fee. Thats an awful lot of base salary that could be converted into a bonus.[/quote]

Terrific point, I just missed that one as I went through. Restructuring that would provide a fair amount of relief.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

[quote=12thMan;897393]Schneed, on Monty's deal -- there was no signing bonus involved with his new contract, 4 years/ $12mil. So it'll be interesting to see if they restructure and now offer him some guaranteed money?[/quote]

Exactly, it would just involve converting the non-guaranteed money due to him this year (salary or roster bonus) into a guaranteed signing bonus.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

[quote=Schneed10;897403]Exactly, it would just involve converting the non-guaranteed money due to him this year (salary or roster bonus) into a guaranteed signing bonus.[/quote]

Ya they could change the 2012 roster bonus ($2.75M) to signing bonus and push 3/4 of it to the future.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

It seems the point of a non-guaranteed bonus was to give the organization flexibility to release Monty without impacting the cap much. Now, if your theory holds true, he's probably more inclined to stick around, that, or we're not going to spend big bucks trying to upgrade at center.

FWIW, I'm fine with Monty starting at center.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

So what I can gather, at least Trent and Monty will be looking at restructuring deals. At a minimum that is.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

Adam Carriker signs at 4 yr/$20 million. $7 million guaranteed.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

Garcon over 8 mil a year, Morgan over 6 mil a year, Carriker 5 mil a year, Royal probably to a similar contract to morgan. We are also trying to bring in winston and orton, and we need to sign our draft picks/RGIII. Where are we getting the cap space? I've been hearing everywhere that it's "official" that we have 18 million less this season.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

[quote=skinster;898019]Garcon over 8 mil a year, Morgan over 6 mil a year, Carriker 5 mil a year, Royal probably to a similar contract to morgan. We are also trying to bring in winston and orton, and we need to sign our draft picks/RGIII. Where are we getting the cap space? I've been hearing everywhere that it's "official" that we have 18 million less this season.[/quote]

Garcon is around $7 million a year. Morgan and Carriker were projected at around $2 million a year last I saw from our cap guys. We've basically spent $11 million this year.

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

Conventional math has little use here......much like credit cards..

Re: Cap Analysis - Chill It, Skillet
 

[quote=Dirtbag59;898022]Garcon is around $7 million a year. Morgan and Carriker were projected at around $2 million a year last I saw from our cap guys. We've basically spent $11 million this year.[/quote]

Garcon has a 5 year 42.5 mil contract. Carriker got 4 years 20 mil and nfl.com is reporting that morgan got a 2 year deal averaging over 6 mil a year. Thats over 8, 5, over 6. not 7, 2, 2.