Quote:
Originally Posted by skinsfan69
I understand what your saying but what gives you the qualifications to judge if Russell is or is not ready. Just because he started 29 games means he not ready?? That's complete BS. I know your brought out stats that showed guys that started less than 30 games. But what about the other side to that? I'm sure many NFL QB's in the past, and that are playing now did not start a gazillion games like Bardy Quinn did. You can argue both sides to your theory.
Now I agree that playing 4 years is a big advantage. No question about that. Nothing is better than game experience. But your acting like it can't be done. Your acting like just becase the guy only started 29 games means he can't handle the NFL. I think all that means is he may need to sit his first year, like JC, Carson Palmer and many others.
Tom Brady. Wasn't he sharing time w/ Drew Henson?
Mark Bulger. I know he didn't have a overly productive college career. Wasn't he drafted in the 6th round?
Jake Delhomme. I don't know where he even went to college.
Matt Hasleback. I know he went to BC but I don't think he started a whole bunch of games.
Brad Johnson. Played behind Casey Weldon???? I know he got some experience in the world league but he didn't play a lick in college.
Byron Leftwich. Didn't he play behind Pennington for two years??
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This is a pretty solid argument. Let me explain the other part of my theory.
The guys you mentioned (exception to Leftwich who started 36 games, a pretty solid number) were ALL late round picks. These guys have proven that it is possible to have the mental capacity to buck the experience trend. And I expect Russell to have the exact same oppertunity to buck the trened as these guys did. There are always exceptions to every rule.
But for every Brady, Hasselbeck, and Brad Johnson, late round picks who were good prospects, do you have any idea how many late round picks had no talent whatsoever? I'd say the ratio for late round picks is like, 20:1.
So the experience equation is not perfect. Every prospect has his chance to buck the trend. But JaMarcus Russell is no more likely to become an elite passer than Cullen Finnerty (4 year starter at DII GVSU--led all D2 QBs in passing efficiency) is. Russell is FAR, far, far, far more likely to be at least as good as Rex Grossman is though. That's the statistical expectation for Russell. 95% chance that he will play somewhere in Grossman's vincinity. And that's not terrible (the Bears did get to a SB with that quality of player at QB), but its a terrible use of a top five pick.
So yes, I should probably, for sake of not sounding like a know-it-all prick, stop talking about Russell as an absolute certainty to be below average. Nothing is ever certain. I can just say, with a lot of confidence, that he will not be an elite player among the best QBs in the league. And if all stats can give me is a lot of confidence in a prediction, I'll take the 5% chance of error any day.