[GTripp0012]

It's not possible for some guys to "consistently outplay" their stats. That makes no sense.

Either one of two things will happen over time:

1) Vince's overall numbers will see significant improvement, and when we look back, we will see that his 4th quarter passing rating was simply foretelling of the greatness to come.

2) Vince will all of a sudden start to struggle in the fourth quarter and fail to win in the way he did his rookie year.

One of those two things (or a combination of them) is a certainty. It's not reasonable to expect him to continue to have weird splits in the 4th quarter that look a lot different from the rest of his body of work. There isn't a prior example you can cite to suggest this trend exists.

Based on extensive analysis, if I had to bet, I'd say Vince will head towards situation two, but it wouldn't shock me at all if in the future he was wildly successful.