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Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33
4 missed games in the last three years is hardly an "injury record for disproof of your statement". If anything McNabb is consciously scrambling less and avoiding unnecessary contact based on his run production and watching the guy play.
What are these decline signs?
- His completion %? It's been the best 3 year span of his career 2007-09.
- Passing Yds? same as above.
- QB Rate? his career average is 86.5, 2007 = 89.9, 2008 = 86.4, 2009 = 92.9.
- TD % and INT % are consistent with his career averages over the last three years.
- Sack % is consistent with his career average, slightly higher in 2007 & 2009, but way down in 2008.
- Playoff appearances in 2008 (NFC Championship appearance) & 2009
- Team record 2007 - 8-8, 2008 - 9-6-1, 2009 - 11-5, trends upward.
I don't see any evidence of decline from the stats. The guy is 33, if he sticks around and gives us the level of production he has for 3-4 years, this deal is an absolute steal for us. With the advances in sports medicine over the last 10 years, who's to say he can't be prodcutive until he's 37-38?
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Well, first, the age figure is what makes you look at it.
Is 2 out of 3 seasons where McNabb missed consecutive weeks with an injury FOLLOWING a torn ACL season not an injury history? He plays quarterback. Does he need to take the crutches onto the field with him?
McNabb's most recent 6 years, as a whole (2 pro bowls) have been better than his first five developmental years (3 pro bowls). That's the part that would classify as his prime.
You're mistaking the inflation of statistics in the last three years as an appreciation of the player. Take a look at the Indexes under
advanced passing on his PFR page, as they adjust for the era. Then split his prime into 2004-06 and 2007-09. The decline is much more evident looking at the context-adjusted figures. Sack rate = down, yards per attempt = down, net yards per attempt = down, Td rate = down. INT rate is pretty constant.
The sabermetrics just see a passing offense in the 12-17 range each of the last 3 years and McNabb between 10-20. He was pretty good in both 2004 and 2006, and injured most of 2005 with that sports hernia, but since 2007, he's been less good. Now his age is a serious deterrent, which is the biggest difference. Other WCO quarterbacks haven't made it past this point, notably Hasselbeck.