Coronavirus (non political)

[mike340]

I hope that I haven't overwhelmed you with this information. It's just that nobody reports it, just number of cases and no context in terms of population size.

Several other notes from my analyses of the situation.

Latinos are carrying this infection in Maryland. Their increase in total cases (by percent) is about double that for whites and blacks (which is usually very close to identical.) Unfortunately, I can verify that this makes sense because we live in a heavily latino area (the terrible zip codes are, I believe, latino majority) and we see/hear them with their parties, walking in groups of multiple families together, and hear them racing in the streets. My wife (who is from Mexico) feels embarrassed by their behavior. Today the number of cases for latinos passed the number of cases for whites in the state for the first time, in spite of the fact that their population is only about one fifth of that of the whites.

Second, it appears that the states in our "corridor" (all the top states with only one interloper, i.e., Mass., Conn., Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and D.C.) along with quite a number of other states, are almost not reporting the recovereds. A very rough calculation extrapolating from infections and recoveries in Germany (which hasn't had much reinfection) seems to imply that the actual number of "active cases" should be at most half the total number of cases. This is based on case numbers by date both for Germany and for the states in question. I hope to run a better regression analysis in the next few days.

Note: I ranked the states by reported active cases over population, a stat that I haven't seen anybody give. I am trying to answer the question, if I see someone in the street, what is the chance that they are currently infected?