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With the 19th Pick, the WFT selects....

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Old 04-21-2021, 04:02 AM   #46
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Re: With the 19th Pick, the WFT selects....

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Originally Posted by Chief X_Phackter View Post
It's really not just as simple as BPA. I do think teams go into the draft with the players ranked and the BPA strategy in mind, and they try to stick to that, but no team sticks to that exclusively when it’s time for them to execute in reality. Ultimately, if they decide another position is more valuable, or another player is more of a fit for the system and they believe he will turn into a productive player, they will stray from the BPA strategy.

For example, if the highest rated player on their board when they pick at #19 is a defensive end, I guarantee you they won't draft him. They'll take the next highest ranked player at a position of need, who fits their system (or they'll try to trade out).

Last year it was easy in the first round. Chase Young was the best player in the draft. For Jacksonville this year, it's easy. Trevor Lawrence has been the #1 pick in the 2021 draft for about four years now.

It's not always that cut and dry though. That's why they get 10 minutes to make a selection, and most of them take it all.
If highest rated DE, you trade down, as you noted. But the truth is taking a player at any position except DL would be okay with 1st round pick this year, so odds are a player you can use is there.
If player ranked #10 or #12 on board sitting there at 19, you take them. If players ranked 18,19,20 are, and minor difference in talent grade, need factors in. Good teams don't pigeonhole need with high picks, long term you end up MUCH more talented by going BPA early rounds. If you go BPA for a decade with 10 1st round picks, versus drafting guys slotted much lower for need, your roster is MUCH, MUCH more talented.

Later in draft there will generally be more players with similar grades, easier to target need, though some players will always drop. You go BPA consistently, round out with FA. That is how dynasties are built.
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Old 04-21-2021, 04:04 AM   #47
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Re: With the 19th Pick, the WFT selects....

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Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule View Post
I am hoping 5 qbs go in the first 10. The talent that falls down to around 11-15 would be worth jumping up for, especially if a few WRs get taken off also.
Nope. You stand pat or trade back unless trading up for QB. We have too many holes to be trading up for non-QBs, and perhaps even for QB. If top-5 QBs fall to 14 or so, trading up becomes interesting.
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Old 04-21-2021, 04:26 AM   #48
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Re: With the 19th Pick, the WFT selects....

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Scalper, cred, gridiron...answer the damn question.

Tell me who they take at 19
There is not enough reliable information to make anything except a blind guess, which is all most mock drafts are. I also think some of the names draftniks love are not those FOs love.

I think top-3 QBs and Sewell, Pitts, Chase go top-10 or before we pick. Beyond that, who knows?

You'd love to see teams draft 5 QBs and 3-4 WRs before we pick so we get a guy rated much higher than 19, but. . .

If we have no T with high grade left on board and all 5 QBs gone, I hope we trade back, barring something absurd like Parsons falling. I prefer proven PASS blocking LTs, I don't care about run blocking, which means some Ts draftniks rate high I would have no interest in.

If we exit round 1 with one of franchise LTs, that would be best outcome in my opinion. As to who we'll pick, I don't know nor does anyone, so seems pointless to just throw darts at a board. Most years don't find franchise LT sitting there at 20 or so where we hopefully pick long term, so get one now. You can always find LBs or WRs. Stud pass blocking LTs much rarer, and again, one of 5 high-leverage positions. Outside of top-tier Ts, lot of guys in second tier very similar, trading down thus may be smart. My ideal draft would be multiple trade downs and we walk away with LT,RT,OLB,ILB,OLB,FS,FS,QB,QB,RB,WR,CB,TE,TE. That's 14 picks we could easily make, even if you knock one or two off, 12 picks. I would much rather have 2 #2s and 3 #3s and 2 #4s (or whatever) and no #1 and maybe get 5-6 starters--unless franchise LT sitting there at 19. We still have severe talent deficit from previous mismanagement and need 10-15 quality players. Thus I would trade down every chance I could so next year we don't have to sign 8 FAs and still don't have holes all over roster. This is MUCH more important than any single player at any pick, except a franchise QB or franchise LT. If I were GM, my focus would be drafting 2 QBs (never would have signed Fitz) and drafting 2 Ts so can let Moses and Lucas walk next year, without reaching for need. If LB waits a year, not optimal, but oh well. You win in trenches and never win multiple SBs without franchise QB, so I'd be using lottery picks on QB without trading up and focus on making OL as dominant as DL.

Will be interesting if Lance or Jones falls to 13 or so, and if we trade up, but who knows if that will happen.
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Old 04-21-2021, 08:41 AM   #49
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Re: With the 19th Pick, the WFT selects....

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Old 04-21-2021, 09:08 AM   #50
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Re: With the 19th Pick, the WFT selects....

Probably 3 terrible busts from the top 5 QB this year.

Jones, Lance stand out immediately. Fields in that group too.

Never before have I heard so much certainty from so called experts on these guys when it comes to potential. These fuckin clowns.

I would avoid first round QB this year, it’s a wildly overrated class. Skins should also not draft one in the second round, third rounds. We have 3 QB on the roster, take this year to continue to add talent to the areas we need it most, it would be much more impactful
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Old 04-21-2021, 09:09 AM   #51
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Re: With the 19th Pick, the WFT selects....

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Originally Posted by Scalper View Post
There is not enough reliable information to make anything except a blind guess, which is all most mock drafts are. I also think some of the names draftniks love are not those FOs love.

I think top-3 QBs and Sewell, Pitts, Chase go top-10 or before we pick. Beyond that, who knows?

You'd love to see teams draft 5 QBs and 3-4 WRs before we pick so we get a guy rated much higher than 19, but. . .

If we have no T with high grade left on board and all 5 QBs gone, I hope we trade back, barring something absurd like Parsons falling. I prefer proven PASS blocking LTs, I don't care about run blocking, which means some Ts draftniks rate high I would have no interest in.

If we exit round 1 with one of franchise LTs, that would be best outcome in my opinion. As to who we'll pick, I don't know nor does anyone, so seems pointless to just throw darts at a board. Most years don't find franchise LT sitting there at 20 or so where we hopefully pick long term, so get one now. You can always find LBs or WRs. Stud pass blocking LTs much rarer, and again, one of 5 high-leverage positions. Outside of top-tier Ts, lot of guys in second tier very similar, trading down thus may be smart. My ideal draft would be multiple trade downs and we walk away with LT,RT,OLB,ILB,OLB,FS,FS,QB,QB,RB,WR,CB,TE,TE. That's 14 picks we could easily make, even if you knock one or two off, 12 picks. I would much rather have 2 #2s and 3 #3s and 2 #4s (or whatever) and no #1 and maybe get 5-6 starters--unless franchise LT sitting there at 19. We still have severe talent deficit from previous mismanagement and need 10-15 quality players. Thus I would trade down every chance I could so next year we don't have to sign 8 FAs and still don't have holes all over roster. This is MUCH more important than any single player at any pick, except a franchise QB or franchise LT. If I were GM, my focus would be drafting 2 QBs (never would have signed Fitz) and drafting 2 Ts so can let Moses and Lucas walk next year, without reaching for need. If LB waits a year, not optimal, but oh well. You win in trenches and never win multiple SBs without franchise QB, so I'd be using lottery picks on QB without trading up and focus on making OL as dominant as DL.

Will be interesting if Lance or Jones falls to 13 or so, and if we trade up, but who knows if that will happen.
Scalper, tell me who the franchise LT is at 19
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Old 04-21-2021, 09:38 AM   #52
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Re: With the 19th Pick, the WFT selects....

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Originally Posted by Chico23231 View Post
Probably 3 terrible busts from the top 5 QB this year.

Jones, Lance stand out immediately. Fields in that group too.

Never before have I heard so much certainty from so called experts on these guys when it comes to potential. These fuckin clowns.

I would avoid first round QB this year, it’s a wildly overrated class. Skins should also not draft one in the second round, third rounds. We have 3 QB on the roster, take this year to continue to add talent to the areas we need it most, it would be much more impactful
Yeah out of the whole group I'd be shocked if 2 make it long term at most 3.

And I bet there will be a later RD GUY that has a Cousins like career

If I had to bet I'd say Lawrence of course and then Lance will be the 2 good ones. I just don't trust OSU QBs after Haskins.. I know they are different and Fields is way better but until its proven I won't buy it
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Old 04-21-2021, 09:41 AM   #53
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Re: With the 19th Pick, the WFT selects....

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Scalper, tell me who the franchise LT is at 19
Exactly.

There won't be one. You'd be better off trading the 19th pick for Orlando Brown Jr. if you are that bent on landing a "franchise" LT at that spot. BTW, I'm not suggesting they do that...

The only projected franchise LT in this draft is Sewell, and there are plenty of talent evaluators that have mixed opinions about that - given his year off. Slater is projected to be the 2nd OT off the board, but many think his best fit will be at guard, and that Darrisaw has a higher ceiling at LT than Slater. After that - Mayfield, Jenkins, Radunz, Little, Brown, Christensen, Leatherwood, Cosmi, Eichenberg... take your pick, but no need to draft one of these guys at 19.
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Old 04-21-2021, 09:52 AM   #54
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Re: With the 19th Pick, the WFT selects....

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Yeah out of the whole group I'd be shocked if 2 make it long term at most 3.

And I bet there will be a later RD GUY that has a Cousins like career

If I had to bet I'd say Lawrence of course and then Lance will be the 2 good ones. I just don't trust OSU QBs after Haskins.. I know they are different and Fields is way better but until its proven I won't buy it
I think the stats speak for themselves when drafting a QB in the first round. I have also read recently WR in the first round is widely volatile as well.
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Old 04-21-2021, 09:54 AM   #55
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Re: With the 19th Pick, the WFT selects....

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Probably 3 terrible busts from the top 5 QB this year.

Jones, Lance stand out immediately. Fields in that group too.

Never before have I heard so much certainty from so called experts on these guys when it comes to potential. These fuckin clowns.

I would avoid first round QB this year, it’s a wildly overrated class. Skins should also not draft one in the second round, third rounds. We have 3 QB on the roster, take this year to continue to add talent to the areas we need it most, it would be much more impactful
Amen. Certainly not trade up. Historically speaking, 2-3 of 5 will bust. To me, Jones safer than Lance and Fields, but who knows, he doesn't have elite athleticism but is more like Peyton Manning or Brees 2.0. Without tons of talent, he could fall off a cliff though.

Historically speaking, one of next 5-10 QBs after top-5 will be better than half of top-5. Question is which ones? A good FO can find the ones, and we can still get a franchise LT or whatever in 1st round.

If you put a gun to my head and forced me to roll the dice on Lance, Fields, or Jones, it is tough because Jones is safe pick, but Lance has a CANNON arm. So hard to find franchise QB, but I'm rolling dice, would at least be a guy with elite arm. Would be very interesting to see film of Jones making NFL throws only, rather than the gravy throws on his highlight reels.
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Old 04-21-2021, 09:42 PM   #56
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Re: With the 19th Pick, the WFT selects....

This is a great article about Micah Parsons.

https://www.pennlive.com/pennstatefo...-blessing.html
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Old 04-22-2021, 01:59 AM   #57
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Re: With the 19th Pick, the WFT selects....

History shows 2 or 3 out of the 5 that will go in the first round will bust. Jones to me isn't even a first rounder.
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Old 04-22-2021, 08:24 AM   #58
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Re: With the 19th Pick, the WFT selects....

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This is a great article about Micah Parsons.

https://www.pennlive.com/pennstatefo...-blessing.html
This is an outstanding article...thanks for sharing.

Parsons could be the best defensive player in the class...I wouldn’t have a problem moving up a little if he fell
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Old 04-22-2021, 08:35 AM   #59
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Re: With the 19th Pick, the WFT selects....

I don't think Parsons will be there at 19
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Old 04-22-2021, 08:40 AM   #60
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Re: With the 19th Pick, the WFT selects....

But I thought he had all kind of character issues and red flags that would cause him to slide...
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