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GTripp0012 10-29-2007, 04:22 PM I was just thinking it would be interesting to try and quantify in numerical terms the losses this team has sustained to key personnel throughout the end of last season and beginning of this one, as compared to any other team.
Perhaps the problem lies not in the number of injuries or even the specifics of who got injured, but that our talent isn't well distributed among the different strings of players.
Obviously first-stringers are supposed to be better than second-stringers, but it really does seem like we are a top-heavy team who has a huge dropoff in talent level (or experience, or both) beyond our starters. I'm sure this is true of many teams but it seems like the great ones, the successful ones, do not have nearly as much of a drop when players go out.
Indy, for example, lost Edgerrin James and Dominic Rhodes to free agency, Marvin Harrison to injuries, plus at least a few other notables on defense, to say nothing of any line players they may have had injuries. And I think they have managed to win a few games this year.I'm going to try to do this because I'm pretty interested also. If I come up with something substancial, I'll open a thread for it.
GMScud 10-29-2007, 04:42 PM I think if they were both in the game, and Campbell didn't have those two costly fumbles yes we could have won.
I don't know if I agree that we would have won, but if we had scored and not fumbled, and gone into halftime 17-7, that would have made a HUGE difference.
I just hope we can compartmentalize this loss and move on. If we get down on ourselves and let this carry over, it could be disastrous.
dgack 10-29-2007, 04:58 PM I'm going to try to do this because I'm pretty interested also. If I come up with something substancial, I'll open a thread for it.
So it's pretty easy to quantify the loss of production out of a back. On the defensive side, you should be able to quantify loss of production by taking the inverse (i.e., the loss of a negative force is a positive one). So big plays given up, takeaways, etc.
How to quantify the effects of an O-Line? Sacks, YPC average, anything else?
GTripp0012 10-29-2007, 05:06 PM So it's pretty easy to quantify the loss of production out of a back. On the defensive side, you should be able to quantify loss of production by taking the inverse (i.e., the loss of a negative force is a positive one). So big plays given up, takeaways, etc.
How to quantify the effects of an O-Line? Sacks, YPC average, anything else?I'd have to compute the value for every player in a numerical way. It can be done of course, but there'd be a bit of subjectivity it in.
I wouldn't be able to do it for all teams, just the Redskins and a few others.
If you have a few teams you'd like me to compare to, just name em off.
dgack 10-29-2007, 05:22 PM I might be able to help run some of the numbers. What's your data source?
GTripp0012 10-29-2007, 05:55 PM I might be able to help run some of the numbers. What's your data source?I'd probably use DPAR (Defense adjusted points above replacement) since Football Outsiders already scales their numbers to equal points in a football game.
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Pro Football Prospectus 2007 (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/)
For the offensive lines I'd probably come up with a total value for the line, and attempt to assign a responsibility to each position, but that could get real messy real fast. OLs are always tough to apply numbers to.
I think you could find each players contribution if you averaged their four most recent seasons. That would give a good idea.
CHIEF CHUCKING MY SPEAR 10-29-2007, 07:58 PM get over it were not that good. If we played in the AFC we would be one of the worst teams, but in the NFC we have a chance at 8-8. We played with a professional team on sunday and got our ass handed to us.
Sheriff Gonna Getcha 10-29-2007, 08:21 PM I was just thinking it would be interesting to try and quantify in numerical terms the losses this team has sustained to key personnel throughout the end of last season and beginning of this one, as compared to any other team.
Perhaps the problem lies not in the number of injuries or even the specifics of who got injured, but that our talent isn't well distributed among the different strings of players.
Obviously first-stringers are supposed to be better than second-stringers, but it really does seem like we are a top-heavy team who has a huge dropoff in talent level (or experience, or both) beyond our starters. I'm sure this is true of many teams but it seems like the great ones, the successful ones, do not have nearly as much of a drop when players go out.
Indy, for example, lost Edgerrin James and Dominic Rhodes to free agency, Marvin Harrison to injuries, plus at least a few other notables on defense, to say nothing of any line players they may have had injuries. And I think they have managed to win a few games this year.
True enough. However, we are not Indy and JC is no Peyton Manning. For a team that relies on it's O-line to pound the rock, losing the starting right side of the line is devastating. Call it an excuse and say that we should have more depth if you like, but I cannot help but think that this team which ran the ball so well in 2005 and 2006 despite the lack of a passing attack is having a lot of woes because of its inability to run the ball behind a patchwork line.
SmootSmack 10-29-2007, 08:21 PM get over it were not that good. If we played in the AFC we would be one of the worst teams, but in the NFC we have a chance at 8-8. We played with a professional team on sunday and got our ass handed to us.
We'd be one game out of first in the AFC North and in first place in the AFC West
skinsguy 10-29-2007, 09:20 PM get over it were not that good. If we played in the AFC we would be one of the worst teams, but in the NFC we have a chance at 8-8. We played with a professional team on sunday and got our ass handed to us.
:bs:
Where's the compassion for your favorite team? Ugh...nevermind.
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