How Low Can It Go?

I sold last September and I claimed my losses on my taxes. I am looking to buy back in within the next couple of months. By my estimation despite my losses I am about to make some considerable gains in the future. Is that wrong...Schneed?

That's what I'm doing. I'd caution that you shouldn't go heavy on stocks if you need the money within the next 10 years. Otherwise, it's a great time to go for it.

The POTUS has very little control by himself. A Democratic POTUS with a Democratic Congress has a great deal of control. In this particular situation where the housing market has tanked due to bad loan policies, it will take some gov't intervention to fix the situation and remove the bad loans from the system. Hopefully this will restore banks confidence in each other and people's confidence in the banks. Credit should begin to flow and people will spend again.

However in the face of this economic crisis a tax increase targeted at those who drive the economy, a capital gains increase, restoration of a 45% death tax and energy/pollution taxes (which will be paid by every American who has electric service or puts gas in his/her car), coupled with huge spending increases has a great deal to do with the current drop in the markets. Will they rebound, at some point of course. We came out of the depression and the 70s, but as FRPLG mentioned, we will most likely wind up with another lost decade if Obama's administration doesn't do an about face on their current policies/positions.

For the record I'm betting on a floor of 4800.

I wholeheartedly agree with the economic theories you're discussing here (and I've sung them from the mountaintops myself within these forums).

But I think a good deal of the expectations of poorer earnings were priced in around the time Obama was elected, and certainly were priced in by the time details of his stimulus bill were made available. I think the fundamentals support a bottom no lower than Dow 6000. Any decline below that point will be as irrational as the exuberance noted as same by Alan Greenspan in the late 90s.

Much like you a few around here view me as the asshole guy, but the truth is I'd like to think of myself in a more positive light...Defender of Reason. I like the sound of that, what do you think?You'd need longer hair and thicker armor to fit the stereotype I have in my head of you now.

You'd need longer hair and thicker armor to fit the stereotype I have in my head of you now.

Sorry dog, I don't Live Action DnD.

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Apologies to 70Chip for hijacking his thread.

I wholeheartedly agree with the economic theories you're discussing here (and I've sung them from the mountaintops myself within these forums).

But I think a good deal of the expectations of poorer earnings were priced in around the time Obama was elected, and certainly were priced in by the time details of his stimulus bill were made available. I think the fundamentals support a bottom no lower than Dow 6000. Any decline below that point will be as irrational as the exuberance noted as same by Alan Greenspan in the late 90s.
Agree. I've just got a little less faith than you do in folks being rational. :)

Sorry dog, I don't Live Action DnD.Next time you start killing us with the YouTube clips, you'll get...Fireball, fireball......:laughing2

Okay. So far a lively debate but very few specific predictions. Those with balls are:

jsarno: 6000
djnemo65 5500
redskinjim: 5000
Saden1: 5000 (not out of the question)
FRPLG 4900
Slingin Sammy 33 4800
Buster: 3500
70Chip: 3499
CRedskinsRule: 0
That Guy: Less than 0 (possibly)

Of course the winner gets to inherit my Tom Tupa avatar.

I want in on that Tupa action.

No lower than 6k

I sold last September and I claimed my losses on my taxes. I am looking to buy back in within the next couple of months. By my estimation despite my losses I am about to make some considerable gains in the future. Is that wrong...Schneed?
Angry, I'm no tax guy but if you right off your losses one year I think it has tax issues when you buy back in . I could be totaly wrong but I believe there are tax rules that prevent people from selling at a loss, writing them off then turning around and buying back in at lower prices. You might want to check that out.

I love these threads. It always seem that we all want the same thing but we have completly different views on how to get there.

5,800