Will Jason Campbell return?

What's laughable is how my entire anaylsis was based on my carefull study of his statistics this morning. Which reveal quite clearly, as i stated, that he is making progress. But at such a ridiculously slow rate, that he could possibly throw 25 td's(reasonable) when he's 33 years old. He's been in the league 5 years brother. 5! He's halfway out of the league already. The numbers are there. I told you, at best, he's turning into a game manager. He'll never be in the pro bowl.

Get over it. Don't be so blindly supporting.

Yeah, but that is not careful statistical analysis. That is carefully looking at statistics and then drawing an unreasonable conclusion. You basically conclude that based upon his previous statistics it is impossible that he can throw for more than two extra touchdowns a year every year for the next five years. That is completely random and is not "statistical" analysis. That is saying, A=B therefore C=D. There is no correlation between throwing for 10 (in 7 starts), 12 (in 13 starts), and 13 (in 16 starts) touchdowns per season. Hell, if you wanted to really better your argument you would say that his touchdown/game ratio has decreased every year so by the time he is 33 he will be throwing for 0 touchdowns (which would fit with your argument because you would say he'll be out of the league). I'm not even saying Campbell is a great QB, I am just saying you are making your argument by 1) coming to a conclusion, 2) cherry picking statistics, 3) arbitrarily assigning meaning to those statistics so that they fit with your conclusion. That is not an empirical argument.

Hey guys, just take those JC jerseys and hang em in the closet. next yr they will be as useful as my ol Champ jersey i have in mine.

^ Or my Arrington & Washington Jerseys...

Yeah, but that is not careful statistical analysis. That is carefully looking at statistics and then drawing an unreasonable conclusion. You basically conclude that based upon his previous statistics it is impossible that he can throw for more than two extra touchdowns a year every year for the next five years. That is completely random and is not "statistical" analysis. That is saying, A=B therefore C=D. There is no correlation between throwing for 10 (in 7 starts), 12 (in 13 starts), and 13 (in 16 starts) touchdowns per season. Hell, if you wanted to really better your argument you would say that his touchdown/game ratio has decreased every year so by the time he is 33 he will be throwing for 0 touchdowns (which would fit with your argument because you would say he'll be out of the league). I'm not even saying Campbell is a great QB, I am just saying you are making your argument by 1) coming to a conclusion, 2) cherry picking statistics, 3) arbitrarily assigning meaning to those statistics so that they fit with your conclusion. That is not an empirical argument.

I disagree with you obviously on the validity of the statistics i've pulled. Anyone can "cherry pick" statistics and make them reveal something that may not be there. Yes, i did use the statistics i chose to use. On the other side of that coin, anyone can tear them down by continuing to break down the figures ad nauseum.

Bottom line. Little steps don't equal big steps. I want big steps.

i dont put alot in the 0 ints. its not like he was scoring 2-3 tds a game while doing it. just tells me he was playin not to lose
do you put alot into the 6-2 record? because where i come from, that's the bottom line?

Trent Green? wasnt he with Al Saunders when he was havin pro bowl seasons??
Gannon was good because he was a true student of the game, that guy could write the playbook for you. he put the time in.
and it wasnt hard for Johnson to win the SB with that BUC D. they scored like 21pts in that game vs the Raiders.
so Campbell isn't putting the time in? that's a pretty ridiculous statement. and anyhoo, Gannon only had 2-3 good seasons. remember how god awful he was in his brief stay here? i cant believe im sticking up for Campbell. to me, this is the year he either does it, or ends up in arena football

Ok, bottom line we missed the playoffs. JC started makin up for lost time with the picks he threw to end the season.

I disagree with you obviously on the validity of the statistics i've pulled. Anyone can "cherry pick" statistics and make them reveal something that may not be there. Yes, i did use the statistics i chose to use. On the other side of that coin, anyone can tear them down by continuing to break down the figures ad nauseum.

Bottom line. Little steps don't equal big steps. I want big steps.

Fair enough. But this year is the one you want to look at for "big" progress. Second year in a system, second year with Zorn as QB coach, and hopefully will get at least limited production from the 2008 draft class. This year is the "make or break" year.

Plus, as I tried to show above, if you take your exact same metrics and apply them to everybody's favorite Super Bowl winning QB you get basically the same outcome. And if it is statistical "progress" you are looking for then you don't get that with Roethlisberger's first three seasons either. He didn't make a "big jump" statistically until year four and then dropped back down (regressed to the mean?) last year.

These numbers are nice but the only thing that really matters is that one QB lead his team to a SB win while the other hasnt won anything in his 5 years in the league.Last I checked, football was a team sport. That D in Pitt had a lot more to do with them winning the SB than Big Ben.

Fair enough. But this year is the one you want to look at for "big" progress. Second year in a system, second year with Zorn as QB coach, and hopefully will get at least limited production from the 2008 draft class. This year is the "make or break" year.

Plus, as I tried to show above, if you take your exact same metrics and apply them to everybody's favorite Super Bowl winning QB you get basically the same outcome. And if it is statistical "progress" you are looking for then you don't get that with Roethlisberger's first three seasons either. He didn't make a "big jump" statistically until year four and then dropped back down (regressed to the mean?) last year.

That's the part i'm worried about. Quarterbacks make WR's better, and the offensive line makes a QB better. So my chain of logic is this. Does Derrick Dockery solve our OL issues from last year(one guy goes down and we don't have adequate depth)?

Are we hinging Jason's success on his abilities, or the progress of our often injured 2nd round draft class of last year.

I think QB's that make minimal progress every year need substantial help from the cast around them. And i don't see that improvement on offense. Therefore, i can't predict success.