I am a horrible, rotten excuse for a Redskins fan.

Yes but if that 4% chance of failing comes with a prolonged detriment factor it hurts exponentially more. Case in point, Oakland is just now recovering from Jamarcus Russell (see R. Leaf, A. Smith, etc). Had Russell been say a late first round draft pick with a 50% risk factor such as a campbell or ramsey, while the chance of failure is higher the brunt of such failure moving forward is significantly less of an impediment in recovering from said risk failure.

Therefore, I always go with value based decisions.

Albeit such risk factor analysis of award v. detriment for top 10 draft picks has been hedged with the new but yet to be applied slotting system.50% is for 1st round QBs. 4% is for QBs taken afterwards. These are estimates.
Russell is one of those 50% who fail. 4% failures are guys like Painter, Hoyer, John Beck.

Russell hurt them for three years, but his poor play is part of the reason why Darren McFadden and Rolondo McClain are on that team, both critical components on their respective side of the ball. For the GM making the pick, the only thing that might dissuade them from gambling like that on a QB is job security.

I'm with you. This season is done. Get the young guys some experience, pack it in, get that high pick. We need the QB of the future. Winning only hurts us at this point.

In addition, since they've put the rookie wage scale into effect, a high round pick busting isn't nearly as detrimental to the team as they used to be.

I dispise losing, but I'll be honest with you.... last week with Skins/Dallas week ... it just didn't have the same feel. I was pretty much resolved the Skins would lose and most likely lose bad. I watched Davis's fumble and then Dallas score and I left to do the brakes on my truck. I did listen by radio though. After the brakes I took the truck to Jiffy Lube and they had the game on so I was kinda stuck watching it. When I got home I finished watching the game.

I'll be happy if they win and happy if they lose at this point cause I really want the Skins to get a high draft pick, but I definitly don't want them to get blown out. If they keep it close and look like they are actually playing then I'll be interested but if they come out and show the typical 3 and out and a couple INT's I'll be pissed as usual.

I dispise losing, but I'll be honest with you.... last week with Skins/Dallas week ... it just didn't have the same feel. I was pretty much resolved the Skins would lose and most likely lose bad. I watched Davis's fumble and then Dallas score and I left to do the brakes on my truck. I did listen by radio though. After the brakes I took the truck to Jiffy Lube and they had the game on so I was kinda stuck watching it. When I got home I finished watching the game.

I'll be happy if they win and happy if they lose at this point cause I really want the Skins to get a high draft pick, but I definitly don't want them to get blown out. If they keep it close and look like they are actually playing then I'll be interested but if they come out and show the typical 3 and out and a couple INT's I'll be pissed as usual.

Bingo. I hate to see the team lose and get completely dominated by the other team. Hopefully that won't be the case next week, as I don't think Seattle is that great.

wrong thread for this but I don't understand why RGIII won't come out? I hear that a lot, but seems like his stock is high, he is not an underclassman - i think- so what would keep him there?

50% is for 1st round QBs. 4% is for QBs taken afterwards. These are estimates.
Russell is one of those 50% who fail. 4% failures are guys like Painter, Hoyer, John Beck.

Russell hurt them for three years, but his poor play is part of the reason why Darren McFadden and Rolondo McClain are on that team, both critical components on their respective side of the ball. For the GM making the pick, the only thing that might dissuade them from gambling like that on a QB is job security.

Wouldnt Russell a 1st overall draft pick have a 4% risk of not being successful vs a late 1st round pick who would have a higher 50% chance of not being successful?

other than that, i agree 100%.

Try to win every game. If you end up going 7-9 or 6-10. Then you make the moves to get the pick when the time comes.. Never try to lose to get a better pick. Itll come back to bite you in the arse

Isn't there like a 100% chance that any QB picked will have a 50% chance of failure?

I don't think that the coaches or players should try to lose. But I want an emphasis on the young players getting experience. Fight hard, stay competitive. As a fan, I want a higher pick -- as a player or coach I would never ask them to not try their hardest.

Isn't there like a 100% chance that any QB picked will have a 50% chance of failure?

No. where are you getting those numbers from? link please or it does not exist.