Vox.com: How NFL teams ignore basic economics and draft players irrationally.

Smart front offices keep their picks or trade them for more picks. Bad front offices trade their picks for particular players.

Yes, this is the takeaway. A supplement to this is the philosophy of letting your UFAs walk instead of overpaying to keep them. A compensatory pick and cap space almost always puts you in a better spot than paying dannell ellerbe $7 mil/year lol. Likewise, some teams are vastly better than others at realizing when a player's nearing the end, and recouping some value for them via trade. If you want to be a successful GM in the nfl, following those two tenets will get you a long way.

And for the record, you can't declare winners and losers in the rg3 trade yet, and especially not via division titles. Pretty sure the NFC east doesn't have the 49ers and seahawks...

How NFL teams ignore basic economics and draft players irrationally - Vox (http://www.vox.com/2014/5/7/5683448/how-nfl-teams-ignore-basic-economics-and-draft-players-irrationally)

I thought this was a very good article about the draft and how trading picks usually ends up being a very bad thing. It's also why I was against trading so much for RGIII a couple years ago.


I found this quote by Eric DeCosta to be the key to it all.





You want to know the difference between good teams and bad ones? Bad ones trade their picks away for gambles, while the smart ones know that it's a numbers game.

That is an interesting quote when you consider it comes from one of the most respected and I would say a very successful front office. One thing the Ravens do not do very often is trade picks away.

Yes, this is the takeaway. A supplement to this is the philosophy of letting your UFAs walk instead of overpaying to keep them. A compensatory pick and cap space almost always puts you in a better spot than paying dannell ellerbe $7 mil/year lol. Likewise, some teams are vastly better than others at realizing when a player's nearing the end, and recouping some value for them via trade. If you want to be a successful GM in the nfl, following those two tenets will get you a long way.

And for the record, you can't declare winners and losers in the rg3 trade yet, and especially not via division titles. Pretty sure the NFC east doesn't have the 49ers and seahawks...

I've been saying this for years and the primo examples for me we're Jon Jansen and Randy Thomas.

I will also agree with the 'mo picks 'mo better philosophy, however I believe going after QB is perhaps the exception. I think the first thing you do when you are building a team is go out and get your QB. And not wait. Do the research and get your number one choice whatever it takes. We did that with RG3 and it was about damn time and I'm OK with it if it fails. I just hope they have the stones to do it again if it does.

Who says RGIII is a franchise QB? Beyond one year in a gimmicky offense, what has he shown you that leads you to believe he's a franchise QB? It's a bit premature to be calling him one right now. Let's give it a couple more years.


Fair point. I am operating under the assumption he is - because the only year that he didn't show franchise QB qualities was the one in which he was recovering from a devastating knee injury. Excuse, maybe. But if he looks dynamite again this year now that he's healthy, everyone and his brother will firmly believe he's a bonafide franchise guy.

But you're right, until that happens it's early to jump the gun.

In general I agree with the notion that more picks = better. But the one exception to that is QB, I believe. Transcendant QBs can be worth giving up multiple picks because of the significance of their position.

Sure, more picks gives you a better shot at getting good players. But let's not forget how bad our FO has been over the years even when they did have picks. Remember Vinnie's 3 second round picks, all busts--Fred may still play somewhere, but the other two were just awful. My feeling is we've neglected scouting for a long time. It's an institutional failing. We just don't seem to care that much about it or we think it's pretty easy to do. Maybe that's beginning to change with Allen, but we'll see. (Fingers crossed!)

Smart front offices keep their picks or trade them for more picks. Bad front offices trade their picks for particular players.

That's is one opinion and there are situations that prove it wrong .

You have to seperate QB trades from everything else.

Trading a pick for Jason Taylor was not smart, trading a pick for TJ Duckett not smart... Trading Champ Bailey + a Pick for CP, not the best trade. I'd be inclined to never let the skins trade picks. In this era where QBs can make such a difference, you can't say no.

I think people are misinterpreting what DeCosta meant when he said the draft is a luck-driven process. Sometimes, it makes a lot of sense to take a big personnel risk and try to hit on a once in a generation player if you believe you can. But that's where the luck element comes in: way more often than not, you're just going to beat yourself.

If Griffin turns out to be the best quarterback in the history of the franchise, no one is going to care how much of the Rams roster was built through that trade. It won't matter. But -- and this is coming from someone who thought Griffin was one of the five best players in the 2012 draft coming from Baylor -- the odds aren't ever in your favor. And the teams that best understand this aren't picking in the top ten.

You have to seperate QB trades from everything else.

Trading a pick for Jason Taylor was not smart, trading a pick for TJ Duckett not smart... Trading Champ Bailey + a Pick for CP, not the best trade. I'd be inclined to never let the skins trade picks. In this era where QBs can make such a difference, you can't say no.

Preach

Portis took us to the dance on his back meanwhile Champ was getting schooled by Marty Booker. Joe Gibbs is perfect. Champ was great while Darrell Green played.