How much have we improved player personnel?

Pro Football Focus predicts Redskins will have same record as Cowboys - Hogs Haven (http://www.hogshaven.com/2016/6/4/11858918/pro-football-focus-predicts-redskins-will-have-same-record-as-cowboys)

7. Washington (9-7)

In 2015, Washington somewhat overachieved, considering their roster. While they added CB Josh Norman from Carolina, which should be a big help to their defensive backfield, they also lost talent on defense. Terrance Knighton was one of their best run-defenders, and Jason Hatcher was one of their best pass-rushers, and neither remain on the roster. On offense, Alfred Morris was their highest-graded running back, and he was also lost over the offseason (signed with Dallas). Others in the division improved at more positions, which will make it difficult for Washington to repeat as NFC East champs.

Hatcher was going to get cut. Missed games the last two years because he is injured and old. He is another year older and is likely to be more injured and miss more games.

Alf and Knighton signed what amounts to very modest one year prove it deals:

Terrance Knighton Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money | Over The Cap (http://overthecap.com/player/terrance-knighton/1969/)
Alfred Morris Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money | Over The Cap (http://overthecap.com/player/alfred-morris/1412/)

McLovin didn't want these guys on the roster. There was plenty of room to sign these guys for more than they got elsewhere.

We didn't LOSE them, McLovin DIDN'T WANT THEM.

I don't disagree with the 9-7 prediction because of the much tougher schedule but it's not going to be attributable to not have three players the GM didn't want.

Hatcher was going to get cut. Missed games the last two years because he is injured and old. He is another year older and is likely to be more injured and miss more games.

Alf and Knighton signed what amounts to very modest one year prove it deals:

Terrance Knighton Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money | Over The Cap (http://overthecap.com/player/terrance-knighton/1969/)
Alfred Morris Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money | Over The Cap (http://overthecap.com/player/alfred-morris/1412/)

McLovin didn't want these guys on the roster. There was plenty of room to sign these guys for more than they got elsewhere.

We didn't LOSE them, McLovin DIDN'T WANT THEM.

I don't disagree with the 9-7 prediction because of the much tougher schedule but it's not going to be attributable to not have three players the GM didn't want.

Everything I wanted to say about that article but I was to lazy to write. Poor reporting.

Hatcher was going to get cut. Missed games the last two years because he is injured and old. He is another year older and is likely to be more injured and miss more games.

Alf and Knighton signed what amounts to very modest one year prove it deals:

Terrance Knighton Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money | Over The Cap (http://overthecap.com/player/terrance-knighton/1969/)
Alfred Morris Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money | Over The Cap (http://overthecap.com/player/alfred-morris/1412/)

McLovin didn't want these guys on the roster. There was plenty of room to sign these guys for more than they got elsewhere.

We didn't LOSE them, McLovin DIDN'T WANT THEM.

I don't disagree with the 9-7 prediction because of the much tougher schedule but it's not going to be attributable to not have three players the GM didn't want.

The PFF debate rages on. I'll simply agree with you that the numbers don't happen in a vacuum. The numbers are the numbers but the author failed to put those numbers in context for his readers.

If the players in question had produced outstanding numbers, then there would be a stronger case for re-signing them. The Skins are building a younger team they hope will compete for years, so it makes no sense for the Skins to keep older, more expensive players unless they can produce at a high level in comparison to the entire league. It doesn't mean much that Hatcher and Morris surpassed their under-performing teammates at their respective positions.

Hatcher was going to get cut. Missed games the last two years because he is injured and old. He is another year older and is likely to be more injured and miss more games.

Alf and Knighton signed what amounts to very modest one year prove it deals:

Terrance Knighton Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money | Over The Cap (http://overthecap.com/player/terrance-knighton/1969/)
Alfred Morris Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money | Over The Cap (http://overthecap.com/player/alfred-morris/1412/)

McLovin didn't want these guys on the roster. There was plenty of room to sign these guys for more than they got elsewhere.

We didn't LOSE them, McLovin DIDN'T WANT THEM.

I don't disagree with the 9-7 prediction because of the much tougher schedule but it's not going to be attributable to not have three players the GM didn't want.


Gruden didn't want Morris either. That was obvious when he got here and it was more obvious last year.

The problem with PFF's analytics is that they use them to conclude on what teams are losing when a player leaves. It's not wrong to say Alfred Morris and Jason Hatcher had value for us, it's just incomplete, because you have to consider what their replacements will do once they move into the starting lineup. Their analytics can't tell you that.

I personally don't see us losing anything by going from Morris to Jones. If Jones fumbles at the same rate he did last year, then problem. Otherwise, as he's drilling on it hard, no problem.

The DL I do have questions about, but our run defense sucked even with Knighton and Hatcher in there. PFF has no basis to conclude that rotating in Golston, Reyes, Ionnidis and Paea will be the same, worse, or better.

I wouldn't be surprised to see us at 8-8 this year. That doesn't mean we went backwards. This is a tough schedule with a roster that isn't yet complete. If they play well down the stretch and end up better than .500 I think we could win a playoff game or two.. You never know how it's going to go, teams that are graded high now might struggle and the schedule might not be as tough as it looks today. It also could be ridiculously tough if a few teams get a spark. That's why they play the games. Be careful to manage your expectations. Be excited but be aware that 8-8 might be an improvement.

I wouldn't be surprised to see us at 8-8 this year. That doesn't mean we went backwards. This is a tough schedule with a roster that isn't yet complete. If they play well down the stretch and end up better than .500 I think we could win a playoff game or two.. You never know how it's going to go, teams that are graded high now might struggle and the schedule might not be as tough as it looks today. It also could be ridiculously tough if a few teams get a spark. That's why they play the games. Be careful to manage your expectations. Be excited but be aware that 8-8 might be an improvement.

Agree 100%.

That being said . . .

The year the Giants beat the Pats in the Superbowl they finished the regular season 9-7.

The problem with PFF's analytics is that they use them to conclude on what teams are losing when a player leaves. It's not wrong to say Alfred Morris and Jason Hatcher had value for us, it's just incomplete, because you have to consider what their replacements will do once they move into the starting lineup. Their analytics can't tell you that.

I personally don't see us losing anything by going from Morris to Jones. If Jones fumbles at the same rate he did last year, then problem. Otherwise, as he's drilling on it hard, no problem.

The DL I do have questions about, but our run defense sucked even with Knighton and Hatcher in there. PFF has no basis to conclude that rotating in Golston, Reyes, Ionnidis and Paea will be the same, worse, or better.

Spot on, on all three points.

9-7 would be an improvement, they have a nutty schedule.