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Originally Posted by Schneed10
Not hide in our homes non stop for two years, but you watch the numbers closely. We should stay in our homes until the growth in new cases is down to a point where you can start to come out and play a little bit. Modelers can do the math to say if we have X number of new cases per day that equates to Y admissions to hospitals 7 days later, etc etc. As long as those expected admissions to hospitals are below the capacity of those hospitals, then you're good to come out and play.
That will spread the disease around a little more. But we should view that as an inevitability. When the disease starts to spike again and the new case growth gets too high, then we go back to social distancing.
And we might have to do that on/off/on/off approach for the next 18 months until we have a vaccine.
This helps you balance the economy a bit with the spread of the illness. This illness is going to kill a certain amount of people, you just want to give those people a chance to beat it with access to a ventilator and a hospital bed. If you can't give them a hospital bed and a ventilator then you've failed to fight the virus and it's resulted in more death than it needed to.
If we get a vaccine sooner, then all the better, but I'd expect to go on and off with stay at home orders for 18 months or so.
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Here is the way I see it we have 619,000 confrimed cases and 27,000 confirmed deaths that is over a 4% fatality rate. If we factor in the CDC evaluation that 25% of cases are asymptomatic at the most we are lookuing at 774,000 cases. Even with that value the death rate is 3.5%. This is all with the measures in place. This isn't even including an exteremly high hospitilization rate
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm (For March ). If we remove stay at home orders what does that infection rate jump to? Are we really willing to risk a 3.5% death rate with a much larger infected population? If people are worried about the economy they really need to think about what those values would do to the economy.