Coronavirus (political)

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by SolidSnake84

So then to make sure i am understanding you, the only thing we can do is hide in our homes for two more years or so until they get a successful vaccine. I am not being a smartass, i am asking you.

Not hide in our homes non stop for two years, but you watch the numbers closely. We should stay in our homes until the growth in new cases is down to a point where you can start to come out and play a little bit. Modelers can do the math to say if we have X number of new cases per day that equates to Y admissions to hospitals 7 days later, etc etc. As long as those expected admissions to hospitals are below the capacity of those hospitals, then you're good to come out and play.

That will spread the disease around a little more. But we should view that as an inevitability. When the disease starts to spike again and the new case growth gets too high, then we go back to social distancing.

And we might have to do that on/off/on/off approach for the next 18 months until we have a vaccine.

This helps you balance the economy a bit with the spread of the illness. This illness is going to kill a certain amount of people, you just want to give those people a chance to beat it with access to a ventilator and a hospital bed. If you can't give them a hospital bed and a ventilator then you've failed to fight the virus and it's resulted in more death than it needed to.

If we get a vaccine sooner, then all the better, but I'd expect to go on and off with stay at home orders for 18 months or so.

[BaltimoreSkins]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Not hide in our homes non stop for two years, but you watch the numbers closely. We should stay in our homes until the growth in new cases is down to a point where you can start to come out and play a little bit. Modelers can do the math to say if we have X number of new cases per day that equates to Y admissions to hospitals 7 days later, etc etc. As long as those expected admissions to hospitals are below the capacity of those hospitals, then you're good to come out and play.

That will spread the disease around a little more. But we should view that as an inevitability. When the disease starts to spike again and the new case growth gets too high, then we go back to social distancing.

And we might have to do that on/off/on/off approach for the next 18 months until we have a vaccine.

This helps you balance the economy a bit with the spread of the illness. This illness is going to kill a certain amount of people, you just want to give those people a chance to beat it with access to a ventilator and a hospital bed. If you can't give them a hospital bed and a ventilator then you've failed to fight the virus and it's resulted in more death than it needed to.

If we get a vaccine sooner, then all the better, but I'd expect to go on and off with stay at home orders for 18 months or so.

Here is the way I see it we have 619,000 confrimed cases and 27,000 confirmed deaths that is over a 4% fatality rate. If we factor in the CDC evaluation that 25% of cases are asymptomatic at the most we are lookuing at 774,000 cases. Even with that value the death rate is 3.5%. This is all with the measures in place. This isn't even including an exteremly high hospitilization rate https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm (For March ). If we remove stay at home orders what does that infection rate jump to? Are we really willing to risk a 3.5% death rate with a much larger infected population? If people are worried about the economy they really need to think about what those values would do to the economy.

[SolidSnake84]

Originally Posted by BaltimoreSkins

Here is the way I see it we have 619,000 confrimed cases and 27,000 confirmed deaths that is over a 4% fatality rate. If we factor in the CDC evaluation that 25% of cases are asymptomatic at the most we are lookuing at 774,000 cases. Even with that value the death rate is 3.5%. This is all with the measures in place. This isn't even including an exteremly high hospitilization rate https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm (For March ). If we remove stay at home orders what does that infection rate jump to? Are we really willing to risk a 3.5% death rate with a much larger infected population? If people are worried about the economy they really need to think about what those values would do to the economy.

I guess some of the thought process says that if you shut down all restaurants, schools, hotels, malls, etc... for at least the two years that it takes to get a vaccine out to the masses, is there permanent economic damage done by that point. Could the country have collapsed in that time frame?. Is there reasonable chances that the fed. government could collapse entirely within two years time, with the majority of people unemployed, etc...

I don't have these answers because i think we are in uncharted territory here, what is happening and what we are doing has never happened before. Two years of lockdowns, etc.. might be the death blow for America.

I would think at some point the massive food shortages, civil unrest, rioting, suicides, overdoses, etc. as people lose all hope, etc., would have also have an effect on the overall death toll. No easy answer. Who knows, before May 1st, maybe Trump and the governors realize that there is no way to re-open the states or the country, and we are on a doomed path and nothing we can do will change the course. I have no idea.

[Buffalo Bob]

Originally Posted by SolidSnake84

I guess some of the thought process says that if you shut down all restaurants, schools, hotels, malls, etc... for at least the two years that it takes to get a vaccine out to the masses, is there permanent economic damage done by that point.

I think we have already blown past the damage of the recession of 2008 and quickly headed to match the great depression. There are businesses killed off by the last recession that to this day have never come back, one was the limousine building industry I used to sell my own products to.

Over and above the businesses that did not survive this shutdown, the fall out will take out many others as people behave differently out of fear of being in crowds on top of people that change their spending habits. This is the first time in many peoples lives they have been blind sided by loss of income. Most people who have been fired or laid off saw it coming, this crisis was the exception to that rule. I believe it will cause people to increase their cash savings and rainy day fund like never before. Businesses who cater toward hobbies and entertainment are going to take a big hit as people are going to start saving a huge chunk of the money they spent on those items.

[mredskins]

Originally Posted by Buffalo Bob

I think we have already blown past the damage of the recession of 2008 and quickly headed to match the great depression. There are businesses killed off by the last recession that to this day have never come back, one was the limousine building industry I used to sell my own products to.

Over and above the businesses that did not survive this shutdown, the fall out will take out many others as people behave differently out of fear of being in crowds on top of people that change their spending habits. This is the first time in many peoples lives they have been blind sided by loss of income. Most people who have been fired or laid off saw it coming, this crisis was the exception to that rule. I believe it will cause people to increase their cash savings and rainy day fund like never before. Businesses who cater toward hobbies and entertainment are going to take a big hit as people are going to start saving a huge chunk of the money they spent on those items.

I agree. Interesting to see what happens with youth sports, it was a booming business. Not sure families will have extra cash anymore lying around for Johnnys fancy club team.

[SolidSnake84]

Originally Posted by mredskins

I agree. Interesting to see what happens with youth sports, it was a booming business. Not sure families will have extra cash anymore lying around for Johnnys fancy club team.

Youth Sports are probably done for, at least until we get a vaccine. So i've been meaning to post this question for a while now, just to get your input, but what businesses / industries in America do you think will be permanently gone / forever changed? I'll give you my quick list:

Gone:
Youth / High School Sports (Until we get a vaccine)
Cruise Ships
Beach Resorts
Theme Parks
Movie Theaters
Every retail store that isn't Wal-Mart or a Grocery Stores

Permanently Changed:
Restaurants - dine in will never be allowed again
School - Schools will go to all distance learning until we get a vaccine
Grocery Stores - in person limit, rationing of certain items will continue for next several years
Travel - People will not be able to leave the USA unless it is proven to be for essential work, etc.
Public Parks - family gatherings, BBQ's etc will no longer be allowed

[Buffalo Bob]

Originally Posted by SolidSnake84

Youth Sports are probably done for, at least until we get a vaccine. So i've been meaning to post this question for a while now, just to get your input, but what businesses / industries in America do you think will be permanently gone / forever changed? I'll give you my quick list:

Gone:
Youth / High School Sports (Until we get a vaccine)
Cruise Ships
Beach Resorts
Theme Parks
Movie Theaters
Every retail store that isn't Wal-Mart or a Grocery Stores

Permanently Changed:
Restaurants - dine in will never be allowed again
School - Schools will go to all distance learning until we get a vaccine
Grocery Stores - in person limit, rationing of certain items will continue for next several years
Travel - People will not be able to leave the USA unless it is proven to be for essential work, etc.
Public Parks - family gatherings, BBQ's etc will no longer be allowed

I don't think any of that will be gone for good, it will just take a long time to come back to close to where it was, probably many years.

I definitely agree on the middle to high end retail stores getting hit hard. There are going to be a lot of Nordstrom shoppers ending up at Walmart and Target.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by SolidSnake84

Youth Sports are probably done for, at least until we get a vaccine. So i've been meaning to post this question for a while now, just to get your input, but what businesses / industries in America do you think will be permanently gone / forever changed? I'll give you my quick list:

Gone:
Youth / High School Sports (Until we get a vaccine)
Cruise Ships
Beach Resorts
Theme Parks
Movie Theaters
Every retail store that isn't Wal-Mart or a Grocery Stores

Permanently Changed:
Restaurants - dine in will never be allowed again
School - Schools will go to all distance learning until we get a vaccine
Grocery Stores - in person limit, rationing of certain items will continue for next several years
Travel - People will not be able to leave the USA unless it is proven to be for essential work, etc.
Public Parks - family gatherings, BBQ's etc will no longer be allowed

I know this has already garnered several responses, but I am amazed someone/anyone would even write this list. The economic toll on some industries will impact their future, but the rest of these are just beyond bizarro world thinking. Not one thing on this list has a remote chance of being true 6 months from now.

Other than Cruise Ships, every industry you list under gone will be revitalized as the economy is reopened and people can get out of their houses and enjoy leisure activities again.

In the Permanently changed, the only one that has a slim chance of being true is more remote learning for high schools.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by SolidSnake84

Youth Sports are probably done for, at least until we get a vaccine. So i've been meaning to post this question for a while now, just to get your input, but what businesses / industries in America do you think will be permanently gone / forever changed? I'll give you my quick list:

Gone:
Youth / High School Sports (Until we get a vaccine)
Cruise Ships
Beach Resorts
Theme Parks
Movie Theaters
Every retail store that isn't Wal-Mart or a Grocery Stores

Permanently Changed:
Restaurants - dine in will never be allowed again
School - Schools will go to all distance learning until we get a vaccine
Grocery Stores - in person limit, rationing of certain items will continue for next several years
Travel - People will not be able to leave the USA unless it is proven to be for essential work, etc.
Public Parks - family gatherings, BBQ's etc will no longer be allowed

so much for beaches/beach resorts being gone/Public Parks being permanently changed:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/flori...b63639081ed802