https://www.hogshaven.com/2023/2/1/2...eds-in-the-nfl
Interesting analysis of what we can expect if the Commanders draft in area of need in the rounds and the probability based on historical trends of that pick being a year 1 starter. Focused on OT, Interior O-line, LB and CB
Based on position and 16th pick in 1st round the probability (converted to percent) we get a 1st year starter if we draft a:
OT: 57%
IOL: 75%
LB: 60%
CB: 67%
After first round the odds of finding a first year starter drop dramatically at the areas of need. Perhaps at that point best player regardless of depth, trade backs for more potential picks or even use them to fill needs at FA (with Rivera's track record that might not equal to starters either)