[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by jsarno

Just out of curiousity, why do you think I have not looked at the numbers? I wrote a book on how to beat roulette...everywhere you look in the book there are stats. There are stats for stats. I understand you have not read it cover to cover, but trust me, I know the numbers.

You may be able to multiply and divide, but you don't understand the #1 premise in statistics: randomness.

Originally Posted by jsarno

I never said it was foolproof. In fact I said you will lose battles but win the war. I know my system works because I put it to real world use with thousands upon thousands of rolls. I asked you to check out the "basics" of my system. I'm sure you even realize that the word "basic" means the bare essentials, not the full blown "complex" system. I have won rubes money with this system. Again, I know it works. I doubt you can call about 20 people "lucky". When I actually finish up the book, and get it published, I will gladly send you a copy.
I think you are thinking that in order for this to work, it has to win every single time you play...and that's not the case. Only 1 part of my system is 100%. (I'll explain that at the end of this post) I just made it to where the odds are now in my favor. I know you don't believe that, and that's cool. There are many things in this world that people won't believe for a variety of reasons, and it's your right.

Look man, you're backtracking. You told me I would make money using your system. I did exactly what you said to do. I'll try it for another 40 rolls tonight, but I don't think it's going to change anything.

Originally Posted by jsarno

I am curious about 1 thing you mentioned:

Did you play the 2nd 12 and 3rd 12 at the same time, or at different times? Because I NEVER said to play them seperately...the odds of winning when you play both at the same time are approximately 63.2%.

I did EXACTLY what you told me to do. I always bet the 2nd and 3rd 12 at the same time. The odds of winning in this situation would be 24/38, or 63.2% just as you said. If bet $1 on 2nd 12 and $1 on 3rd 12, there are four possible outcomes:

The ball hits 1st 12, and I lose both of my dollars.
The ball hits 2nd 12, I get paid $2, but I lose the dollar I bet on 3rd 12.
The ball hits 3rd 12, I get paid $2, but I lose the dollar I bet on 2nd 12.
The ball hits a green square, and I lose both my dollars.

So the math is:
(31.57% x [$2 - $1]) + (31.57% x [$2 - $1]) + (31.57% x -$2) + (5.26% x -$2)
= - $0.1052

You lose 10 cents per two dollars you bet. That's the same as losing 5 cents for every dollar you bet. No matter what, the odds don't change.

Originally Posted by jsarno

I have a fundamental belief that the world will right itself. So while you say if the wheel hits red 3 times in a row, the odds of it hitting red again is 50/50 (less than when you count the greens), I say the odds of it hitting black goes up. It's like what I said to you about flipping a coin. If it hits tails 10 times in a row, eventually it will hit heads at a higher rate than tails. Why? Because there is something in this world that will even it out. I can't explain it, and I can't prove it yet...but I feel it's there. There is no need to try to rip that thought apart, I understand it can't be proven and it is a unique belief. Some day I will prove it, somehow. Until then, your stats are correct.

This evening out you speak of is a phenomenon in statisctics which seems to have escaped you. You should have covered this in your schooling. It's the basic law of averages. It says that the odds of any individual coin flip don't change. Each flip is always 50%. If you start off with 10 heads, the chances of heads on the next flip is 50%. The evening out occurs over millions and millions of flips. Somewhere in the subsequent flips, you're just as likely to get 10 tails in a row, just as you got the 10 heads in the beginning. This does not mean that the individual chances of a coin flip have changed from 50%. It means that if you flip the coin enough, the results will asymptotically approach 50%, no matter how many heads you started with.

Originally Posted by jsarno

I have never seen red or black hit more than 8 times in a row. So if I am to bet against red (after it hit 3 times in a row) my odds go up that I will win since the odds of red hitting more than 8 times in row is astronomical.

The odds of any 8 rolls coming up either red or black, all in a row, are 0.25%. That's why you've never seen it. But if you stick around a roulette table long enough, you will see it eventually. When it gets to 7 reds in a row, it has a 50/50 shot of making it to 8. You're not betting on the odds of what happens over the last 7 rolls AND the next one. You're simply betting on the NEXT one.

Originally Posted by jsarno

But it is time consuming. If I only did that in Vegas and I won (on average) every 10 minutes, I would win $30 an hour. If I did that for 8 hours, that's $240. Do that 5 times a week, and that's $1200. Do that for 52 weeks, and that's $62400 a year. So can it be done...absolutely. Do you get health benefits, a 401k, dental benefits, vision plan, vacation time etc...heck no.

You would make a whole lot more than that per hour, per day, per week, per year, if you upped your bet. On the first day, start out betting the table minimum. If your more complex system is as foolproof as you say, you will be up a lot of money by the end of the day. So the next day, double the size of all your bets. So by the end of that day, you'll be up even more. Each day, keep doubling your bets and racking up winnings. Before you know it, if your complex system ALWAYS wins, your pockets will be so deep be able to play the high roller tables all day. You'd be betting $10,000 a spin eventually, winning over $1 million a day. Sounds a lot better than managing Chili's.

If it ALWAYS won, you'd be doing it instead of wasting time writing a book and selling a bogus idea. Either you are trying to sell a book that will cheat people out of money, or flat out don't understand probability. I find that sad for a person with a masters.