Civil Discussion About Religion

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

No, it cannot work over time. If you have won money doing this in the past, you are simply lucky. There is no such thing as a roulette system. The wheel does not have patterns. Each outcome is completely random. If a red came up last roll, the chances of a red coming up this roll are no different than last roll.

You gave me a system, I followed it to the letter, and I lost money. If it's really a good system, it would work every time, there would be no luck involved. It would simply work.

For giving your system a shot, I'd like for you to consider my point of view for a moment. You've been so intent on seeing me try your system, that I don't think you've given full consideration to my points.

The odds of roulette are relatively simple. You're a numbers guy, so you'll be able to follow me here:

Let's look at putting money on the outside bets: odd, even, red, or black. There are 18 spots on the wheel for each one of those that would represent a win. There are 38 total spots on the wheel. So the chances of winning on any one of those bets is 18/38 = 47.36%. Conversely, there is a 52.64% chance you will lose.

Now, if you do win, you get paid 1 to 1. If you bet $1 and win, you win $1. The math works like this: 47.36% chance of winning times $1, plus 52.64% chance of losing times -$1.

(47.36% x $1) + (52.64% x -$1)
($0.4736) + (-$0.5264)
= - $0.052

On average, for every $1 you put on an outside bet, you will lose 5 cents. 47% of the time you win a dollar. 53% of the time you lose a dollar. Overall, on average, that's a loss of 5 cents per dollar you bet.

Look at playing any of the 12s, say first 12. Your chance of winning is 12/38 = 31.58%. Your payoff is 2 to 1. So put a dollar down, you win $2 when you win:

(31.58% x $2) + (68.42% x -$1)
($0.6317) + (-$0.6842)
= - $0.052

Same thing, playing first, second, or third 12, you lose 5 cents per dollar you bet.

Now look at betting individual numbers, including whether you bet 0 or 00. Pick any number, put a dollar on it. Your payoff is 35 to 1. Your chances of winning are 1/38 = 2.63%.

(2.63% x $35) + (97.37% x $-1)
($0.9210) + (- $0.9737)
= - $0.052

No matter where you bet on the board, on average, you will lose 5 cents per dollar you bet.

You've had masters courses, and you can't get a masters without taking statistics courses. So these probabilities should not escape you. The flaw in your system lies in the assumption that the wheel has patterns. It does not. You've fallen hook line and sinker for The Gambler's Fallacy.

If you really thought it was foolproof, you'd quit your job managing that Chilis, and you'd be in Vegas raking in millions upon millions. It doesn't work. Your previous winnings have been due to one thing only: LUCK.

Just out of curiousity, why do you think I have not looked at the numbers? I wrote a book on how to beat roulette...everywhere you look in the book there are stats. There are stats for stats. I understand you have not read it cover to cover, but trust me, I know the numbers.

I never said it was foolproof. In fact I said you will lose battles but win the war. I know my system works because I put it to real world use with thousands upon thousands of rolls. I asked you to check out the "basics" of my system. I'm sure you even realize that the word "basic" means the bare essentials, not the full blown "complex" system. I have won rubes money with this system. Again, I know it works. I doubt you can call about 20 people "lucky". When I actually finish up the book, and get it published, I will gladly send you a copy.
I think you are thinking that in order for this to work, it has to win every single time you play...and that's not the case. Only 1 part of my system is 100%. (I'll explain that at the end of this post) I just made it to where the odds are now in my favor. I know you don't believe that, and that's cool. There are many things in this world that people won't believe for a variety of reasons, and it's your right.

I am curious about 1 thing you mentioned:

Look at playing any of the 12s, say first 12. Your chance of winning is 12/38 = 31.58%. Your payoff is 2 to 1. So put a dollar down, you win $2 when you win:

(31.58% x $2) + (68.42% x -$1)
($0.6317) + (-$0.6842)
= - $0.052

Same thing, playing first, second, or third 12, you lose 5 cents per dollar you bet.

Did you play the 2nd 12 and 3rd 12 at the same time, or at different times? Because I NEVER said to play them seperately...the odds of winning when you play both at the same time are approximately 63.2%.

I have a fundamental belief that the world will right itself. So while you say if the wheel hits red 3 times in a row, the odds of it hitting red again is 50/50 (less than when you count the greens), I say the odds of it hitting black goes up. It's like what I said to you about flipping a coin. If it hits tails 10 times in a row, eventually it will hit heads at a higher rate than tails. Why? Because there is something in this world that will even it out. I can't explain it, and I can't prove it yet...but I feel it's there. There is no need to try to rip that thought apart, I understand it can't be proven and it is a unique belief. Some day I will prove it, somehow. Until then, your stats are correct.
I have never seen red or black hit more than 8 times in a row. So if I am to bet against red (after it hit 3 times in a row) my odds go up that I will win since the odds of red hitting more than 8 times in row is astronomical.
So let's break this down to the simplest of forms.
Bet $5 on red after black hit 3 times. Keep doubling it whenever you lose. Eventually it will hit red...we can all agree on that right? So what happens when it does? You win money...more than you lost (by $5 to be exact). How can that simple task be wrong? My system takes that basic thought and expands upon it. Granted it gets very complex, but you can't argue with that simple task. It works...it will ALWAYS work. That is undenyable. If all you were to do is bet like I just said, you WILL walk away with money. But it is time consuming. If I only did that in Vegas and I won (on average) every 10 minutes, I would win $30 an hour. If I did that for 8 hours, that's $240. Do that 5 times a week, and that's $1200. Do that for 52 weeks, and that's $62400 a year. So can it be done...absolutely. Do you get health benefits, a 401k, dental benefits, vision plan, vacation time etc...heck no.