Check out his math: Shows skins are # 1!

jgalecpa · 10-25-2005, 09:44 PM

Went to washingtonPost.com and found a schedule with all the team rankings by category. http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...-stats-nfl.txt

They had the teams arranged alphabettically, so of course our skins were last. However I noticed the skins were consistently low in each category.

So, being an accounting Geek, I imported the data into excel, added up the sum of the categories (excluding totals, or else it would be redundant), and resorted the data with the lowest being best (that is it is better to be 1st than 31st, obviously).

What you get is a summary ranking of teams as follows.

Notice who is at the top.

Notice how low the Giants and Eagles are:

Rank-Team-Total of Rankings

1Washington Redskins31

2Tampa Bay Buccaneers36
3Seattle Seahawks41
4Dallas Cowboys44
5Indianapolis Colts44
6Baltimore Ravens50
7Chicago Bears54
8Pittsburgh Steelers55
9Cincinnati Bengals57
10Tennessee Titans58
11Denver Broncos58
12Kansas City Chiefs59
13San Diego Chargers59
14New Orleans Saints61
15Green Bay Packers63
16Jacksonville Jaguars63
17Philadelphia Eagles65
18Arizona Cardinals66
19Carolina Panthers69
20St. Louis Rams72
21Miami Dolphins72
22Atlanta Falcons72
23Oakland Raiders73
24Detroit Lions73
25Buffalo Bills77
26New England Patriots78
27New York Giants82
28Minnesota Vikings82
29New York Jets89
30Houston Texans99
31Cleveland Browns100
32San Francisco 49ers108

Hope you find this interesting.

Or maybe not.

Jim

Riggo44 · 10-25-2005, 09:59 PM

Nice job Jgalecpa.

The way the rankings should be. N.E maybe should be ranked higher but otherwise it's about right on.Especially the #1 ranked team!

Hijinx · 10-26-2005, 01:49 AM

Any power rankings that have the cowturds above the colts is a weeee bit off.

jgalecpa · 10-26-2005, 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hijinx

Any power rankings that have the cowturds above the colts is a weeee bit off.

In general, I would agree.

Jgale

skin4Life28 · 10-26-2005, 11:36 AM

Reminds me of the BCS. lol

GoSkins! · 10-26-2005, 11:43 AM

It all looked good. That is until I saw the Ravens at 6...

Still, anytime the Skins are #1 I'm happy.

RedskinRat · 10-26-2005, 12:51 PM

Fox is a little more sane:

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5023840

Redskins at 7.

BigSKINBauer · 10-26-2005, 01:43 PM

top 5 and bottom 5 look good but looking at ravens, bears, titans from 6-10 is a little off wack. I love these type of statistics though. It is a good representation of how good a team is.

Ade Jimoh Fan Club · 10-26-2005, 02:03 PM

I'm NOT an accounting nerd...but if you told me that we were #2 overall on offense and #4 on defense, I could tell you that we were #1 overall in the league.

On a side note, we should be a whole lot better ranking-wise on defense; however, we've allowed some BS long runs (like at the end of the 49ers game) that dropped us to 15th. If you took out that run and the two lucky runs that Tatum Bell had, we'd be in the top 5 for rushing defense. BS.

jgalecpa · 10-26-2005, 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skin4Life28

Reminds me of the BCS. lol

Actually, after I did it, it even reminded me of the BCS.

BTW, I prefer accounting geek to accounting nerd.

Either one beats what the wife calls me.

aehs77 · 10-26-2005, 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jgalecpa

Either one beats what the wife calls me.

and what might that be

jgalecpa · 10-26-2005, 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aehs77

and what might that be

"You short, arrogant little prick".

What makes me mad is I'm not that short.

Jim

That Guy · 10-26-2005, 04:08 PM

from the article... basically saying that fumbles tend to even out, recovery is purely dumb luck, and the redskins have had bad luck recovering on both offense (2 of 6) and defense (2 of 9) so far this season.

"Fumble recoveries are random

OK, so you read the description at the top about how we adjust the raw stats. You saw the bit about strength of schedule and thought, "Hey, that makes sense." But what on earth do we mean by "adjusting to cancel out the effect of luck on fumble recovery?" Isn't turnover margin an important part of football?

Yes, it is. Turnovers are hugely important, and there is a lot of skill involved in picking off a pass or stripping the ball from an opponent. But there is virtually no skill involved in being the last person to hold the ball at the bottom of the pile when the refs get down there. If you don't believe me, ask Edgerrin James and Corey Ivy.

We wrote about this in Pro Football Prospectus 2005, using New Orleans as an example. Over the past four seasons, Aaron Brooks fumbled the ball 13, 11, 14 and 13 times. But his official count of fumbles according to the league — i.e., fumbles lost to the defense — went 2, 5, 11, and 2. The quarterback who lost only two fumbles in 2004 didn't suddenly learn to hold on to the ball. He's the same guy as the year before, just with better luck.

And this year, it reversed again. The New Orleans Saints have fumbled the ball on offense seven times this season (four by Brooks) and the defense has recovered every single one. That's just dumb luck, but it is game-changing dumb luck. Since roughly half of fumbles are recovered by the defense, that's three or four times New Orleans has turned the ball over based on random chance.

I know, some of you are saying that the Saints are just an exception, that fumble recovery is a real skill, that certain coaches teach their players to pounce on the ball. Let's look at the other offenses that led the league last year in percentage of fumbles recovered.

Last year, four offenses recovered at least 60 percent of their fumbles: the Jets, Giants, Cardinals and Chargers. This year the Giants have recovered two of seven, the Cardinals three of eight, and the Chargers one of four. Only the Jets have still recovered more fumbles than they've lost, although not for lack of trying: after fumbling just 13 times last year, the Jets have already fumbled 16 times on offense this year.

How about defenses? The Bears recovered the highest percentage of opposition fumbles in 2004, but this year they've recovered just two of six. Meanwhile the Eagles, who only recovered 29 percent of opposition fumbles last year, have recovered five of nine this year. The Broncos only recovered seven of 17 opposition fumbles last year but already have seven fumble recoveries this season with just 10 tries.

What does this mean for our ratings? It means that a team with a particularly good record of fumble recoveries could come back to earth. That brings us to the Atlanta Falcons, who after last night have stripped the ball 10 times and recovered an astonishing nine of them. That's been a big part of their 5-2 record, and there's no reason to believe it will continue. Other lucky defenses include the Panthers (8 of 9), the Giants (8 of 9) and the 49ers (5 of 5). Unlucky defenses include the Redskins (2 of 9) and Seahawks (1 of 9).

The Falcons have had strong luck on offense too, recovering five fumbles out of seven. (Let's be honest, Michael Vick doesn't have some magic ability to will the ball into the arms of Barry Stokes.) No offense has been as unlucky as New Orleans — let's be honest, this season no team has been as unlucky as New Orleans in any conceivable fashion — but other teams with poor fumble recovery luck on offense include the Patriots (1 of 5), the Steelers (1 of 5) the Eagles (1 of 5), and — here they are again — the Redskins (2 of 6)."

10-26-2005, 01:49 AM	#3
Hijinx The Starter Join Date: Apr 2005 Age: 50 Posts: 1,961	Re: Check out his math: Shows skins are # 1! Any power rankings that have the cowturds above the colts is a weeee bit off. __________________ This is my signature, there are many like it, but this one is mine.

10-26-2005, 11:36 AM	#5
skin4Life28 Special Teams Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Raleigh, NC Age: 38 Posts: 447	Re: Check out his math: Shows skins are # 1! Reminds me of the BCS. lol

10-26-2005, 11:43 AM	#6
GoSkins! The Starter Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Yorktown, Va Age: 56 Posts: 1,587	Re: Check out his math: Shows skins are # 1! It all looked good. That is until I saw the Ravens at 6... Still, anytime the Skins are #1 I'm happy. __________________ Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts. A. Einstien

10-26-2005, 12:51 PM	#7
RedskinRat Franchise Player Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: I'm in LA, trick! Posts: 8,700	Re: Check out his math: Shows skins are # 1! Fox is a little more sane: http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5023840 Redskins at 7.

10-26-2005, 01:43 PM	#8
BigSKINBauer Pro Bowl Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Washington, DC Age: 37 Posts: 5,688	Re: Check out his math: Shows skins are # 1! top 5 and bottom 5 look good but looking at ravens, bears, titans from 6-10 is a little off wack. I love these type of statistics though. It is a good representation of how good a team is.

10-25-2005, 09:44 PM	#1
jgalecpa Special Teams Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 458	Check out this math: Shows skins are # 1! Went to washingtonPost.com and found a schedule with all the team rankings by category. http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...-stats-nfl.txt They had the teams arranged alphabettically, so of course our skins were last. However I noticed the skins were consistently low in each category. So, being an accounting Geek, I imported the data into excel, added up the sum of the categories (excluding totals, or else it would be redundant), and resorted the data with the lowest being best (that is it is better to be 1st than 31st, obviously). What you get is a summary ranking of teams as follows. Notice who is at the top. Notice how low the Giants and Eagles are: Rank-Team-Total of Rankings 1Washington Redskins31 2Tampa Bay Buccaneers36 3Seattle Seahawks41 4Dallas Cowboys44 5Indianapolis Colts44 6Baltimore Ravens50 7Chicago Bears54 8Pittsburgh Steelers55 9Cincinnati Bengals57 10Tennessee Titans58 11Denver Broncos58 12Kansas City Chiefs59 13San Diego Chargers59 14New Orleans Saints61 15Green Bay Packers63 16Jacksonville Jaguars63 17Philadelphia Eagles65 18Arizona Cardinals66 19Carolina Panthers69 20St. Louis Rams72 21Miami Dolphins72 22Atlanta Falcons72 23Oakland Raiders73 24Detroit Lions73 25Buffalo Bills77 26New England Patriots78 27New York Giants82 28Minnesota Vikings82 29New York Jets89 30Houston Texans99 31Cleveland Browns100 32San Francisco 49ers108 Hope you find this interesting. Or maybe not. Jim

10-25-2005, 09:59 PM	#2
Riggo44 The Starter Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: San Clemente CA Age: 51 Posts: 2,390	Re: Check out his math: Shows skins are # 1! Nice job Jgalecpa. The way the rankings should be. N.E maybe should be ranked higher but otherwise it's about right on.Especially the #1 ranked team! __________________ Beer is proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy. Benjamin Franklin

10-26-2005, 02:03 PM	#9
Ade Jimoh Fan Club Special Teams Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 410	Re: Check out his math: Shows skins are # 1! I'm NOT an accounting nerd...but if you told me that we were #2 overall on offense and #4 on defense, I could tell you that we were #1 overall in the league. On a side note, we should be a whole lot better ranking-wise on defense; however, we've allowed some BS long runs (like at the end of the 49ers game) that dropped us to 15th. If you took out that run and the two lucky runs that Tatum Bell had, we'd be in the top 5 for rushing defense. BS.

10-26-2005, 04:08 PM	#13
That Guy Living Legend Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: VA Age: 42 Posts: 17,587	Re: Check out his math: Shows skins are # 1! from the article... basically saying that fumbles tend to even out, recovery is purely dumb luck, and the redskins have had bad luck recovering on both offense (2 of 6) and defense (2 of 9) so far this season. "Fumble recoveries are random OK, so you read the description at the top about how we adjust the raw stats. You saw the bit about strength of schedule and thought, "Hey, that makes sense." But what on earth do we mean by "adjusting to cancel out the effect of luck on fumble recovery?" Isn't turnover margin an important part of football? Yes, it is. Turnovers are hugely important, and there is a lot of skill involved in picking off a pass or stripping the ball from an opponent. But there is virtually no skill involved in being the last person to hold the ball at the bottom of the pile when the refs get down there. If you don't believe me, ask Edgerrin James and Corey Ivy. We wrote about this in Pro Football Prospectus 2005, using New Orleans as an example. Over the past four seasons, Aaron Brooks fumbled the ball 13, 11, 14 and 13 times. But his official count of fumbles according to the league — i.e., fumbles lost to the defense — went 2, 5, 11, and 2. The quarterback who lost only two fumbles in 2004 didn't suddenly learn to hold on to the ball. He's the same guy as the year before, just with better luck. And this year, it reversed again. The New Orleans Saints have fumbled the ball on offense seven times this season (four by Brooks) and the defense has recovered every single one. That's just dumb luck, but it is game-changing dumb luck. Since roughly half of fumbles are recovered by the defense, that's three or four times New Orleans has turned the ball over based on random chance. I know, some of you are saying that the Saints are just an exception, that fumble recovery is a real skill, that certain coaches teach their players to pounce on the ball. Let's look at the other offenses that led the league last year in percentage of fumbles recovered. Last year, four offenses recovered at least 60 percent of their fumbles: the Jets, Giants, Cardinals and Chargers. This year the Giants have recovered two of seven, the Cardinals three of eight, and the Chargers one of four. Only the Jets have still recovered more fumbles than they've lost, although not for lack of trying: after fumbling just 13 times last year, the Jets have already fumbled 16 times on offense this year. How about defenses? The Bears recovered the highest percentage of opposition fumbles in 2004, but this year they've recovered just two of six. Meanwhile the Eagles, who only recovered 29 percent of opposition fumbles last year, have recovered five of nine this year. The Broncos only recovered seven of 17 opposition fumbles last year but already have seven fumble recoveries this season with just 10 tries. What does this mean for our ratings? It means that a team with a particularly good record of fumble recoveries could come back to earth. That brings us to the Atlanta Falcons, who after last night have stripped the ball 10 times and recovered an astonishing nine of them. That's been a big part of their 5-2 record, and there's no reason to believe it will continue. Other lucky defenses include the Panthers (8 of 9), the Giants (8 of 9) and the 49ers (5 of 5). Unlucky defenses include the Redskins (2 of 9) and Seahawks (1 of 9). The Falcons have had strong luck on offense too, recovering five fumbles out of seven. (Let's be honest, Michael Vick doesn't have some magic ability to will the ball into the arms of Barry Stokes.) No offense has been as unlucky as New Orleans — let's be honest, this season no team has been as unlucky as New Orleans in any conceivable fashion — but other teams with poor fumble recovery luck on offense include the Patriots (1 of 5), the Steelers (1 of 5) the Eagles (1 of 5), and — here they are again — the Redskins (2 of 6)."

Check out his math: Shows skins are # 1!

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