ProFootballFocus: Best/Worst drop rate for 2011 WRs

[NC_Skins]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...ping-the-ball/


Might want to think twice before championing for DeSean Jackson's services. Had a 13.4% drop rate. On another note, many people talked about Vjax, but I always thought they should be looking at Malcom Floyd. This report leads me to believe I was correct in that thinking.

Best

1 Golden Tate SEA 35 35 0 0
2 Dez Bryant DAL 64 63 1 1.56
3 Malcom Floyd SD 44 43 1 2.27
4 Marques Colston NO 82 80 2 2.44
5 Reggie Wayne IND 77 75 2 2.6
6 Jordy Nelson GB 70 68 2 2.86
7 Jabar Gaffney WAS 69 67 2 2.9
8 Larry Fitzgerald ARZ 83 80 3 3.61
9 Deion Branch NE 53 51 2 3.77
10 Steve Breaston KC 64 61 3 4.69
11 Brandon LaFell CAR 38 36 2 5.26
12 Austin Collie IND 57 54 3 5.26
13 Mike Wallace PIT 76 72 4 5.26
14 Dezmon Briscoe TB 37 35 2 5.41
15 Lance Moore NO 55 52 3 5.45
16 Jason Avant PHI 54 51 3 5.56
17 Greg Jennings GB 71 67 4 5.63
18 Denarius Moore OAK 35 33 2 5.71
19 Devery Henderson NO 34 32 2 5.88
20 Lavelle Hawkins TEN 50 47 3 6

Worst:

91 Arrelious Benn TB 38 30 8 21.05
90 Dane Sanzenbacher CHI 34 27 7 20.59
89 Danario Alexander SL 32 26 6 18.75
88 Greg Little CLV 75 61 14 18.67
87 Brandon Gibson SL 44 36 8 18.18
85 Donald Driver GB 45 37 8 17.78
86 Ben Obomanu SEA 45 37 8 17.78
84 Eric Decker DEN 53 44 9 16.98
83 Brian Hartline MIA 42 35 7 16.67
82 Devin Aromashodu MIN 31 26 5 16.13
81 Roy E. Williams CHI 44 37 7 15.91
80 Jerome Simpson CIN 59 50 9 15.25
79 Brandon Marshall MIA 95 81 14 14.74
78 James Jones GB 44 38 6 13.64
77 Demaryius Thomas DEN 37 32 5 13.51
76 DeSean Jackson PHI 67 58 9 13.43
74 Devin Hester CHI 30 26 4 13.33
75 Mario Manningham NYG 45 39 6 13.33
73 Santana Moss WAS 53 46 7 13.21
72 Roddy White ATL 115 100 15 13.04

I'm surprised to see Roddy White with 15 drops. That's horrible.

[skinsguy]

Eh, I don't pay a lot of attention to that. It's hard to gauge how and why those receivers dropped those passes. Since the NFL is a quarterback driven league nowdays, you're going to have more passing attempts, which will lead to more drops, more catches, more yards after the catch (hopefully anyway) and ultimately more TD catches. The yards after the catch and the TDs are the things I'm most concerned about.

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by skinsguy

Eh, I don't pay a lot of attention to that. It's hard to gauge how and why those receivers dropped those passes. Since the NFL is a quarterback driven league nowdays, you're going to have more passing attempts, which will lead to more drops, more catches, more yards after the catch (hopefully anyway) and ultimately more TD catches. The yards after the catch and the TDs are the things I'm most concerned about.

I am going to guess that in order for something to be counted as a drop, it has to hit the receiver's hand. While the way the QB throws the ball can certainly lead to the WR dropping the ball, I would say that this is a good assessment of how reliable a wideout is at holding on to the ball.

[skinsguy]

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

I am going to guess that in order for something to be counted as a drop, it has to hit the receiver's hand. While the way the QB throws the ball can certainly lead to the WR dropping the ball, I would say that this is a good assessment of how reliable a wideout is at holding on to the ball.

You'd also have to look at how they dropped the ball. How many of those passes were hailmary passes, how many were passes that would require some amazing circus type of catch, how many of those passes were just short enough to get one hand on it, but maybe too long to really reach out to catch. I just think there are a lot of variables that one must consider before saying the receiver has the case of the dropsees and shouldn't be considered.

[irish]

No surprise Moss is on the worst list.

[Chico23231]

Originally Posted by irish

No surprise Moss is on the worst list.

Santana had a really bad season. maybe his worst season as a player. I think he certainly is expendable especially with Gaffney stepping up.

[NC_Skins]

Skinsguy, if you look at the list they have "catchable" so they aren't counting passes your are referring to.

[skinsguy]

Originally Posted by NC_Skins

Skinsguy, if you look at the list they have "catchable" so they aren't counting passes your are referring to.

I see that, but still one can't derive, clearly, that these receivers have the case of the drops when there are a lot of variables that go into this. For one thing, look how many more passing attempts are thrown Roddy White's way as opposed to Golden Tate. 115 to 35? How many of those are little hitch passes, bombs down field, perfectly thrown balls, etc.... And, the receivers with the best percentage of catches:drops ratio, why aren't they being thrown to more if they're that more fundamentally sound?

I just think this is one of those situations where unless you look at every single drop from these receivers, I'd be hard press to conclude their fundamentals are lacking.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsguy

I just think this is one of those situations where unless you look at every single drop from these receivers, I'd be hard press to conclude their fundamentals are lacking.

No one is concluding this.

[NC_Skins]

Originally Posted by skinsguy

I see that, but still one can't derive, clearly, that these receivers have the case of the drops when there are a lot of variables that go into this. For one thing, look how many more passing attempts are thrown Roddy White's way as opposed to Golden Tate. 115 to 35? How many of those are little hitch passes, bombs down field, perfectly thrown balls, etc.... And, the receivers with the best percentage of catches:drops ratio, why aren't they being thrown to more if they're that more fundamentally sound?

I just think this is one of those situations where unless you look at every single drop from these receivers, I'd be hard press to conclude their fundamentals are lacking.

The numbers are what they are. There are variables to everything if you really want to go down that path. You can use that line of reasoning with everything. Sacks, INTS, tackles, fumbles, passing yards, blocks, rushing yards, etc.

In the end, the numbers are what they are. Rex Grossman threw 20 INTs this year, I don't see a * denoting a few of those INTs were caused by the WR. Nope.

They presented the numbers and they are accurate. They aren't going to include some hail mary catch that isn't catchable as part of the stat, which is why they have "catchable" listed and not "targeted".

Also, nobody concluded their fundamentals are lacking. We are concluding their catching ability is.



Drew Brees has 3 WRs in the top 20 on this list and Aaron Rodgers has 2. Always helps a good QB when you have decent guys catching the ball.

[skinsguy]

Originally Posted by NC_Skins

The numbers are what they are. There are variables to everything if you really want to go down that path. You can use that line of reasoning with everything. Sacks, INTS, tackles, fumbles, passing yards, blocks, rushing yards, etc.

In the end, the numbers are what they are. Rex Grossman threw 20 INTs this year, I don't see a * denoting a few of those INTs were caused by the WR. Nope.

They presented the numbers and they are accurate. They aren't going to include some hail mary catch that isn't catchable as part of the stat, which is why they have "catchable" listed and not "targeted".

Also, nobody concluded their fundamentals are lacking. We are concluding their catching ability is.



Drew Brees has 3 WRs in the top 20 on this list and Aaron Rodgers has 2. Always helps a good QB when you have decent guys catching the ball.

I'll give ya that those numbers are what they are, and I will even give you that every single one of those catchable passes were right in the bread basket. But, I can't agree that a player dropping 15 of those 115 passes is horrible. That's about 85% of catchable passes completed. Maybe I'm alone in thinking that. Am I saying a player doesn't need to improve past that? No, not at all. But, if you're going to judge a player solely on these stats, you're not cut out to be a GM in the league. While we are just using these stats to prove that a receiver is not as good as people think he is, you can also use the same stats and logic to determine that having the three most dependable receivers on your team, Tate, Bryant, and Floyd does not get you in the playoffs. Nor does having the "best" receiver from these stats, Tate, gets you a record above .500.

When I look at these stats, I see players who are being thrown to more than others because they are the "go to" receivers when you need a clutch catch. Yes, they dropped a few balls, but they obviously were dependable, otherwise the quarterback wouldn't throw to them. And when I see a receiver catching all 35 passes thrown to him, but knowing his team finished 7-9, that tells me those 35 passes were probably largely dump off passes, short high percentage passes. Or, that receiver benefited from the number one guy getting doubled a few times. Does that make him any less of a receiver? No not all, but it also doesn't make him the best receiver in the league.

And maybe it's just semantics, but if a player's catching ability is not up to par, that tells me he is lacking sound fundamentals. Skills are improved by sound fundamentals.

[Skins4L]

Originally Posted by skinsguy

I see that, but still one can't derive, clearly, that these receivers have the case of the drops when there are a lot of variables that go into this. For one thing, look how many more passing attempts are thrown Roddy White's way as opposed to Golden Tate. 115 to 35? How many of those are little hitch passes, bombs down field, perfectly thrown balls, etc.... And, the receivers with the best percentage of catches:drops ratio, why aren't they being thrown to more if they're that more fundamentally sound?

I just think this is one of those situations where unless you look at every single drop from these receivers, I'd be hard press to conclude their fundamentals are lacking.

this.

He's right. And its just one specific category. And who's determining catchable? I'm sure some could be disputed as well if we all sat and watched film.

[Daseal]

Or in Moss' case, how many hit you in the numbers on a slant yet you still managed to drop.

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by Daseal

Or in Moss' case, how many hit you in the numbers on a slant yet you still managed to drop.

[NC_Skins]

I mainly posted this to show how good Gaffney was this year for us.