Top to Bottom, Shanahan Takes Charge

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by Beemnseven

If Shanahan goes for 2 points and misses, a touchdown beats you by three. If he goes for 2 and gets it, a touchdown still beats you by one.

Going for two would have been meaningless either way.

Unless the extra point on the hypothetical Jets touchdown is missed. Good strategy means hedging your bet against that possibility by trying to create a 6-point cushion rather than just moving from a 4 to a 5 point lead.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Lotus

Unless the extra point on the hypothetical Jets touchdown is missed. Good strategy means hedging your bet against that possibility by trying to create a 6-point cushion rather than just moving from a 4 to a 5 point lead.

I do believe your "coaches maximize win expectancy in the preseason" assumption is a tad faulty. From a pure W/L perspective, we have absolutely nothing to gain from kicking the extra point there. Might as well take a knee on the PAT try.

But for Shanahan to have made the wrong call there, we have to assume that the goal is to win the preseason game, even if overtime is necessary. On the contrary, there's plenty of evidence that coaches are averse to overtime in preseason situations.

Jeff Fisher, who uses the chart, went for two down by four points in the final four minutes in the preseason's first week vs. Seattle. Of course, this is not what the chart suggests because the chart always instructs coaches to play for the tie where applicable.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I do believe your "coaches maximize win expectancy in the preseason" assumption is a tad faulty. From a pure W/L perspective, we have absolutely nothing to gain from kicking the extra point there. Might as well take a knee on the PAT try.

But for Shanahan to have made the wrong call there, we have to assume that the goal is to win the preseason game, even if overtime is necessary. On the contrary, there's plenty of evidence that coaches are averse to overtime in preseason situations.

Jeff Fisher, who uses the chart, went for two down by four points in the final four minutes in the preseason's first week vs. Seattle. Of course, this is not what the chart suggests because the chart always instructs coaches to play for the tie where applicable.

The Fisher example supports my argument: why not go for two and get some practice? And none of you naysayers has really responded to the question, "Why not?"

The point is simple: the difference between 4 or 5 points is meaningless, a 6 point lead likely is meaningless but might not be. So, in this case, you take the "might not be meaningless" option. Especially in a preseason game, where practicing scenarios is a good idea (see Jeff Fisher).

In the heat of battle, decision-making can become cloudy. This is why even the best coaches keep 2-point charts. I think I am right about Shanny blowing it, but even if I'm not, the arrogance of the practice of not keeping a chart frightens me.

My point is simple. Whether the point is accepted or not by others, I am done here.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Lotus

The Fisher example supports my argument: why not go for two and get some practice? And none of you naysayers has really responded to the question, "Why not?"

The point is simple: the difference between 4 or 5 points is meaningless, a 6 point lead likely is meaningless but might not be. So, in this case, you take the "might not be meaningless" option. Especially in a preseason game, where practicing scenarios is a good idea (see Jeff Fisher).

In the heat of battle, decision-making can become cloudy. This is why even the best coaches keep 2-point charts. I think I am right about Shanny blowing it, but even if I'm not, the arrogance of the practice of not keeping a chart frightens me.

My point is simple. Whether the point is accepted or not by others, I am done here.

I would say: it's preseason for the kickers as well.

I think you raised an interesting point re: Shanahan, his ego, and the 2 pt chart. But if a 4 or 5 point lead gives you a 99.8% chance of avoiding overtime, while a 6 point lead gives you a 95% chance of avoiding overtime, and the point is to avoid overtime at all potential costs, then kicking the x pt is the rational decision.

Unless of course there was a specific play you wanted to try and put on film for the opponent. I mean, we only scored once so that would have been the only opportunity to do so. But in the absence of this specific scenario, the two point chart is not applicable here (and if we did want to practice something, the chart probably wouldn't have played into that either).