Top to Bottom, Shanahan Takes Charge

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Originally Posted by Lotus

Unless the extra point on the hypothetical Jets touchdown is missed. Good strategy means hedging your bet against that possibility by trying to create a 6-point cushion rather than just moving from a 4 to a 5 point lead.

I do believe your "coaches maximize win expectancy in the preseason" assumption is a tad faulty. From a pure W/L perspective, we have absolutely nothing to gain from kicking the extra point there. Might as well take a knee on the PAT try.

But for Shanahan to have made the wrong call there, we have to assume that the goal is to win the preseason game, even if overtime is necessary. On the contrary, there's plenty of evidence that coaches are averse to overtime in preseason situations.

Jeff Fisher, who uses the chart, went for two down by four points in the final four minutes in the preseason's first week vs. Seattle. Of course, this is not what the chart suggests because the chart always instructs coaches to play for the tie where applicable.