26-27-60 QB formula

[Swarley]

just to back up your point:

Despite a decent streak in the last three drafts, NFL general managers haven't improved much in picking the most important player on the field. From 1980 to '95 (16 drafts), teams selected 35 first-round passers. Nine, from John Elway to Kerry Collins, became consistent long-term starters or stars. Ten, from Art Schlichter to Heath Shuler, had very little impact. The others either were middle-of-the-road players or were derailed by injuries.

From 1996 to 2010 (15 drafts), G.M.'s chose 36 first-round quarterbacks. Excluding Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow, who just finished their rookie years, that leaves 34 QBs. Of those, 11 appear to be long-term starters or stars (if you include recent picks Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco), and eight appear to be busts or doomed by injury.

We'll call the bust rate 29% in the earlier group and 24% over the last 15 years, with 26% stars before to 32% now. It's a little better, but not the change you might expect from the information explosion of the last two decades, all the tools and analytics teams employ to determine if a prospect is the next Dan Marino or Dan McGwire. "Why is it still such an inexact science?" Harbaugh says. "Because there's still some variables you just can't measure."

Read more: Despite an explosion in information - 04.25.11 - SI Vault