Predict Your 2013 Redskins Record (pre-training camp edition)

[GTripp0012]

The poll is also really skewed because there's such a high probability (40-45%) that the Redskins win 8 or fewer games that anyone who votes that way is going to look like they're picking the Redskins to go 1-15.

I mean, there's basically no chance at all that the Redskins go worse than 4-12. But 8-8? That's not the same thing.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

The poll is also really skewed because there's such a high probability (40-45%) that the Redskins win 8 or fewer games that anyone who votes that way is going to look like they're picking the Redskins to go 1-15.

I mean, there's basically no chance at all that the Redskins go worse than 4-12. But 8-8? That's not the same thing.

Defend the bolded statement.

We went 5-1 in division last year, and I don't think any of the other teams improved markedly. I would say all 3 likely are the same or worse than last year.

In addition we play the AFC East, sorry two of those teams are wins, not saying which two, just that we will split. So if we go 3-3 in division, and 2-2 in AFC (both low in my mind), then we need 3 wins against the north, and Seattle, Atlanta to go 8-8. No way that probability of going 8-8 or worse is 40-45%.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

Defend the bolded statement.

We went 5-1 in division last year, and I don't think any of the other teams improved markedly. I would say all 3 likely are the same or worse than last year.

In addition we play the AFC East, sorry two of those teams are wins, not saying which two, just that we will split. So if we go 3-3 in division, and 2-2 in AFC (both low in my mind), then we need 3 wins against the north, and Seattle, Atlanta to go 8-8. No way that probability of going 8-8 or worse is 40-45%.

I think he just means the probability of finishing anywhere between 0-16 and 8-8 is higher than say just 11-5. I'm no math major, but I think that's what he's saying

[Lotus]

I read GTripp to say that the floor of the poll should be 4 wins, not 8.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

Defend the bolded statement.

We went 5-1 in division last year, and I don't think any of the other teams improved markedly. I would say all 3 likely are the same or worse than last year.

In addition we play the AFC East, sorry two of those teams are wins, not saying which two, just that we will split. So if we go 3-3 in division, and 2-2 in AFC (both low in my mind), then we need 3 wins against the north, and Seattle, Atlanta to go 8-8. No way that probability of going 8-8 or worse is 40-45%.

I already defended it with the next paragraph of the previous post, but I can rephrase it easily.

If the Skins have a 40-45% chance of finishing with 8 or fewer wins, then they have a 55-60% chance of finishing with 9 or more wins. That part of the statement I think a lot of us would agree with: the Redskins are 3 to 2 favorites to win more often than they lose next year.

I'm not going to quibble over exact percentages, which is why I threw a 5% range in there. Those aren't the exact odds. But it's in the ballpark.

If there was any shock value to the downside risk, it just means you weren't looking at the complete picture. I don't think other teams are just going to hand the NFC East over to us. I think we have to go out and earn it with a season very similar to the one we had last year.