Current 2014 Free Agents

[JoeRedskin]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

I wouldn't have brought up his name if it hadn't been mentioned as a possibility. Plus if the Cowboys cut him he's unlikely to get 15 mil on his next contract

Well, assuming Ware is released:

(1) Straight up, Ware v. Rak: Who do you want on your team for the next 3 years?

(2) What is your expected value of Ware and why?

I recognize no one is going to pay him 15M, but, as is the course, I expect someone will make an over the market bid for him (it only takes one team) and that he will command something in the neighborhood of a 5 year contract averaging 7-8M/year with about 20M in guarantees (essentially a 3 year contract) OR a straight up 1 year contract in the range of 8M (give or take) guaranteed.

(3) Assuming Ware at 8M for the year and Rak at 11M, who for this year and what's the plan for the position after Ware's one year.

(4) Assuming 3 years of Ware at 20M guaranteed and cap hits in the 8M range, would you take that rather than Rak for a real 5 year contract that has about 35M in guarantees and a 10M/year hit in the first 3 years?

Putting in your own numbers - assuming they differ from mine - for (3) and (4), what is your comparison of the Ware v. Rak in the short and longer terms?

Finally, I know you were just throwing out Ware as a possibility, assuming Ware doesn't get released:

(5) What is your post Rak plan? Jackson?

(6) Do you see Rak testing the market and not getting buckets of money thrown at him?

If it isn't clear, I am on the "don't quibble" train. Is Rak worth 11-13M/year? Not based on past performance.

At the same time, to replace him with someone of equal or better quality is going to end up costing either very close to that amount or more. Even if we resign R.Jax, I suspect we will need someone to provide better pass rush than he does. Without doing film study and just basing it on a few of his plays over the past 2 years, it seems to me R.Jax is better in space than Rak, but, in every other aspect of their respective games, Rak is head and shoulders above R.Jax.

Ultimately, for me, it really comes down to value at the position, replacement cost and the preference to slightly overpay for a homegrown as opposed to an import. Rak is not elite, he lacks a lot of game changing plays and he disappears at times. With that said, he is consistently very good, he seems well liked by his teammates, by all credible reports he is not a "me-first" guy and he has fantastic measurables. Balancing all of this, I see replacing Rak as a choice between: (1) Paying a premium for someone or some-several-ones who may or may not bring his consistency to the table; (2) A stop-gap moderately priced filler (R.Jax or an R.Jax type player) who will be much cheap but will be a significant drop off in talent from Rak; or (3) A huge hole to fill that simply is not adequately addressed.

Sure, I'd like the cheap Ferrari but don't see that happening so I'll go with the moderately overpriced Porsche. "A bird in the hand ..." and all that.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by JoeRedskin

Well, assuming Ware is released:

(1) Straight up, Ware v. Rak: Who do you want on your team for the next 3 years?

(2) What is your expected value of Ware and why?

I recognize no one is going to pay him 15M, but, as is the course, I expect someone will make an over the market bid for him (it only takes one team) and that he will command something in the neighborhood of a 5 year contract averaging 7-8M/year with about 20M in guarantees (essentially a 3 year contract) OR a straight up 1 year contract in the range of 8M (give or take) guaranteed.

(3) Assuming Ware at 8M for the year and Rak at 11M, who for this year and what's the plan for the position after Ware's one year.

(4) Assuming 3 years of Ware at 20M guaranteed and cap hits in the 8M range, would you take that rather than Rak for a real 5 year contract that has about 35M in guarantees and a 10M/year hit in the first 3 years?

Putting in your own numbers - assuming they differ from mine - for (3) and (4), what is your comparison of the Ware v. Rak in the short and longer terms?

Finally, I know you were just throwing out Ware as a possibility, assuming Ware doesn't get released:

(5) What is your post Rak plan? Jackson?

(6) Do you see Rak testing the market and not getting buckets of money thrown at him?

If it isn't clear, I am on the "don't quibble" train. Is Rak worth 11-13M/year? Not based on past performance.

At the same time, to replace him with someone of equal or better quality is going to end up costing either very close to that amount or more. Even if we resign R.Jax, I suspect we will need someone to provide better pass rush than he does. Without doing film study and just basing it on a few of his plays over the past 2 years, it seems to me R.Jax is better in space than Rak, but, in every other aspect of their respective games, Rak is head and shoulders above R.Jax.

Ultimately, for me, it really comes down to value at the position, replacement cost and the preference to slightly overpay for a homegrown as opposed to an import. Rak is not elite, he lacks a lot of game changing plays and he disappears at times. With that said, he is consistently very good, he seems well liked by his teammates, by all credible reports he is not a "me-first" guy and he has fantastic measurables. Balancing all of this, I see replacing Rak as a choice between: (1) Paying a premium for someone or some-several-ones who may or may not bring his consistency to the table; (2) A stop-gap moderately priced filler (R.Jax or an R.Jax type player) who will be much cheap but will be a significant drop off in talent from Rak; or (3) A huge hole to fill that simply is not adequately addressed.
Sure, I'd like the cheap Ferrari but don't see that happening so I'll go with the moderately overpriced Porsche. "A bird in the hand ..." and all that.

All good points. Ultimately mine is, we are not a good enough team and he's not a good enough player to offer $11MM plus just like that. I hope a reasonable restructure occurs.