Must win Skins vs Bucs pregame prediction thread

[HailGreen28]

Originally Posted by 30gut

The gameplan and playcalling remains predictable. In broad strokes without getting too far into the weeds; Jay's offense lacks disguise. By and large on first down if its a run he's going to use a formation that indicates run. I-Form or Single back usually with base personnel or 2/3 TEs. IF Jay drop back passes on 1st down its usually from a formation that he doesn't use to run. Shotgun 1 back or under center 3 wide or empty (and the pass is usually a screen). You know why defense seem to be all over the WR screen to Crowder on 1st down? Because its one of the only passes we run from that shotgun formation on 1st down.
Imho If they want to be a better run team they need to run the ball from some of the same formations, personnel and down and distance that they pass from.

TLDR: Jay's offense 1st down= run from base formations/base personnel.
IF Jay's offense comes out in a pass set on 1st down its going to be a pass.
Defenses have a good read on what's coming based on formations.

D coordinators aren't stupid. They watch the game film. They observed Jay's 1st down--base formation--base personnel run tendency. So? They fill the box with 8 and their ILBs have the green light to "fire their gun" when they read run.

But, aggressive 8-man boxes shouldn't necessarily doom the run game. Good run games face that every week.
But when you combine 1st down predictability with using inadequate or inconsistent blockers i.e. Carrier/Reed to block the POA it gets harder.
I still don't understand why they don't use more I-form with Daryl Young as the POA blocker rather then TEs?
Anyhow, couple that with rotating RBs.
Add not sticking to the run outside of 1st down.
Add lack of variety/not finding the right mix in the run game i.e. Alf likes tosses and Alf needs carries to get rhythm.
Add telegraphing the 'type' of run based on the runner i.e. Alf inside runs, Matt Jones edge runs, CT shotgun runs/draws.

Forget everything I wrote above, because I believe we CAN be better. So assuming we play up to our potential....

20-16 we beat the Bucs

Thank you for your posts here, 30gut. Please don't let the personal, non-football related attacks here drive you out, it would be our loss.