In a Perfect World: A Look Back at the 'Skins Major Offseason Moves

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

Originally Posted by Hogskin

You are forgetting a major fact. Your draft list looks good to you on paper, but 75-80% of the drafted players NEVER live up to their potential, and most never pan out AT ALL. Repost this 10 weeks into the season, and see how it looks then.

I must respectfully take issue with the claim that 75%-80% of draftees do not live up to their hype. For player who does not meet expectations, you’ve got one who exceeds them. I would say that most early round picks pan out. Jessie Armstead, Rich Gannon, Brad Johnson, Steve Smith, Laveranues Coles, Stephen Davis, Jeremiah Trotter, Rock Cartwright, Patrick Ramsey, and Darnerian McCants are just a few examples of Redskins (from various rounds) who I think exceeded expectations (if you consider where they were drafted and how they turned out).

You’ve got to draft well or you just can’t be a successful franchise for more than one or two years. I’m a firm believer in gambling on the draft. Also, don’t free agents represent a gamble? Dan Wilkinson, Dana Stubblefield, Marco Coleman, Bruce Smith, Jeremiah Trotter are just a few examples of huge free agent letdowns.

[Hogskin]

Originally Posted by Ramseyfan

I must respectfully take issue with the claim that 75%-80% of draftees do not live up to their hype. For player who does not meet expectations, you’ve got one who exceeds them. I would say that most early round picks pan out. Jessie Armstead, Rich Gannon, Brad Johnson, Steve Smith, Laveranues Coles, Stephen Davis, Jeremiah Trotter, Rock Cartwright, Patrick Ramsey, and Darnerian McCants are just a few examples of Redskins (from various rounds) who I think exceeded expectations (if you consider where they were drafted and how they turned out).

You’ve got to draft well or you just can’t be a successful franchise for more than one or two years. I’m a firm believer in gambling on the draft. Also, don’t free agents represent a gamble? Dan Wilkinson, Dana Stubblefield, Marco Coleman, Bruce Smith, Jeremiah Trotter are just a few examples of huge free agent letdowns.

WOW!!!! This one is WAY out there. Go through any season since the NFL started, and list 50% of the drafted players that YOU think lived up to their billing. You will have a tough time getting to 20%!!!

Now for the list of Redskins that you reeled off that exceeded expectations LOL. They were drafted over the past 15+ years, and most were not even DRAFTED by the Redskins. Take a look at THIS much longer list of ONLY REDSKIN draftees from the SIX (not 15) years ending 2002 that did NOT perform: Greg Jones, Jamel Williams, Keith Thibodeeaux, Twan Russell, Brad Badger, Skip Hicks, Mark Fischer, Pat Palmer, David Terrell, Antwaun Ponds, Nate Stimson, Derek Smith (the OL, not LB), Jeff Hall, Tim Alexander, Lloyd Harrison, Michael Moore, Quincy Sanders, Todd Husak, Delbert Cowsette, Ethan Howell, Sage Rosenfels, Mario Monds, Rashad Bauman, Cliff Russell, Andre Lott, Robert Royal, Reggie Cloman, Jeff Grau, Jeff Scott. And this was just REDSKIN drafts.

So lets look at a complete NFL 3rd round from a few years back, since a lot of your sure-things were in the 3rd round:
1 63 Travis Prentice Browns RB Miami (OH)
2 64 Lloyd Harrison Redskins DB North Carolina State
3 65 Giovanni Carmazzi 49ers QB Hofstra
4 66 Ron Dugans Bengals WR Florida State
5 67 Mark Simoneau Falcons LB Kansas State
6 68 Erron Kinney Titans TE Florida
7 69 Dez White Bears WR Georgia Tech
8 70 Chris Cole Broncos WR Texas A&M
9 71 Darwin Walker Cardinals DT Tennessee
10 72 Kendrick Clancy Steelers DT Mississippi
11 73 Ron Dixon Giants WR Lambuth (TN)
12 74 Steve Warren Packers DT Nebraska
13 75 Chris Redman Ravens QB Louisville
14 76 J.R. Redmond Patriots RB Arizona State
15 77 Hank Poteat Steelers DB Pittsburgh
16 78 Laveranues Coles Jets WR Florida State
17 79 JaJuan Dawson Browns WR Tulane
18 80 Darrell Jackson Seahawks WR Florida
19 81 Reuben Droughns Lions RB Oregon
20 82 Leander Jordan Panthers G Indiana (PA)
21 83 Damion McIntosh Chargers T Kansas State
22 84 Ben Kelly Dolphins DB Colorado
23 85 Gregory Wesley Chiefs DB Arkansas-Pine Bluff
24 86 Jeff Ulbrich 49ers LB Hawaii
25 87 Dustin Lyman Bears LB Wake Forest
26 88 Doug Chapman Vikings RB Marshall
27 89 Corey Moore Bills LB Virginia Tech
28 90 Nate Webster Buccaneers LB Miami (FL)
29 91 David Macklin Colts DB Penn State
30 92 T.J. Slaughter Jaguars LB Southern Mississippi
31 93 Byron Frisch Titans DE Brigham Young
32 94 John St. Clair

Which half of that list provides the answers for their teams? Pick the second and third rounds from several seasons 3 or more years back (enough time to perform), and you will see that this extremely low success rate is consistent. It just ain't that easy to predict who is going to make it. Couch, McNabb and Akili Smith were picked ahead of Culpepper. Hell, Milt Plum and Ronnie Knox were drafted way ahead of Jurgy (4th round). There are massive numbers of examples.

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

WOW!!!! This one is WAY out there. Go through any season since the NFL started, and list 50% of the drafted players that YOU think lived up to their billing. You will have a tough time getting to 20%!!!

Easy Hogskin, relax, this is a friendly discussion.

The bottom line is you appear to disagree with me as to how to build a solid franchise. Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe in building a team via the draft whereas you prefer to do so in free agency.

I think that the teams that have been solid in recent years are those teams that have the ability to draft well (i.e. the Patriots, Eagles and Ravens). The teams like the 'Skins of 2000 do not tend to last, cost a lot of money, and underperform. It's interesting, if not telling, that teams like the Patriots hoard draft picks while the 'Skins give them away.

Andy Reid says that he pays for the future and not the past. Danny Snyder seems to pay for the past and not the future (although that might be changing). If you draft well, as the 'Skins have recently when they have picks, you build a solid base. Look at our recent drafts and for every disappointment, we will find a hidden gem. Don't look at just one round (i.e. the third), look at every round. Also, don't expect to always get a Pro-Bowler in the 5th, 6th, and 7th rounds.

I think we've done a damn good job of drafting in the high rounds in the past decade and done a good job of getting good values from the mid-rounds whereas the majority of the free agents Dan Snyder has signed have been disappointments.

Also, if you look back at my proposed draft picks, I did not even talk about rounds 4-7, I only spoke about rounds 1-3 with only one of my proposed picks in the 3rd round. So how is it that you are saying that I talked about a bunch of sure-thing third rounders?

We have a pretty solid history of drafting well, so let's play to our strengths and build through the draft. Our track record for free agent acquisitions is much worse. Free agency should be used to add a few players who push you over the top, not to rebuild an entire roster. This is the NFL were talking about not Madden 2005, you can't simply disable the salary cap when it is convenient.

So with all this in mind, I have a few friendly questions for you (I did not mean for that sentence to sound obnoxious).

1. Of our first round picks of the last few years, who has been a bust or disappointment?

2. Of our second round picks from the last few years, who has been a bust or disappointment?

3. Of our major free agency acquisitions, who have been busts and who have been great bargains?

3. Do you think that we have drafted or handled free agency better since Dan Snyder has been here? [B]

[Hogskin]

Originally Posted by Ramseyfan

Easy Hogskin, relax, this is a friendly discussion.

Hmmmmmm. Not sure what I did said that was "unfriendly" LOL. I thought I was merely presenting an opposing point of view... Hope that's not unacceptable here. I will try again, and try to be very careful not to offend you.

You said that I believe in building a team through free agency (as opposed to you). That is not what I believe at all, and I don't think I ever said anything that indicated that. I believe in using both, as the Redskins are doing now. Everything in my post was in direct response to your initial theory, and was intended to demonstrate the flaws in it - nothing more. Actual statistics on the success rate of draftees makes a one-year draft-only rebuilding plan virtually impossible. That is the point I was attempting to make.

As far as their past history of free agents, I agree they have made many bad decisions. But draft decisions are even more difficult to get "right" than free agent signings. The difference this season is Gibbs (especially in free agent signings - his real area of expertise).

Again I will offer my challenge. Repost your original statement in this thread after week 10, and let's look at its validity then. In fact, repost my initial response also - if I am wrong, have at it and I will be here to take it on the chin and eat crow (both friendly and unfriendly).

P.S. Your Tracy Lords comment was the best I have seen anywhere on this board!!!! LMAO

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

Originally Posted by Hogskin

Hmmmmmm. Not sure what I did said that was "unfriendly" LOL. I thought I was merely presenting an opposing point of view... Hope that's not unacceptable here. I will try again, and try to be very careful not to offend you.

Perhaps I misinterpreted the tone of your post, in which case no harm no foul. Of course opposing viewpoints are acceptable here; in fact they are encouraged. As many people here may know, I don't believe half of the things that I say, I just post viewpoints that I think are being neglected or "go against the grain." It would be boring if we all agreed on everything. Bouncing ideas off each others' heads improves everyones' knowledge of the team.

Originally Posted by Hogskin

You said that I believe in building a team through free agency (as opposed to you). That is not what I believe at all, and I don't think I ever said anything that indicated that. I believe in using both, as the Redskins are doing now. Everything in my post was in direct response to your initial theory, and was intended to demonstrate the flaws in it - nothing more. Actual statistics on the success rate of draftees makes a one-year draft-only rebuilding plan virtually impossible. That is the point I was attempting to make.

Again, I may have misunderstood you. It may be a matter of degrees that we are talking about. I'm a very draft-oriented guy and you are more free agency-oriented. I don't forget about free agency and you don't forget about the draft, but we have different priorities.

Originally Posted by Hogskin

As far as their past history of free agents, I agree they have made many bad decisions. But draft decisions are even more difficult to get "right" than free agent signings. The difference this season is Gibbs (especially in free agent signings - his real area of expertise).

IMO, while it might be easier to screw up a draft pick than a free-agent pickup, the costs associated with screwing up a free-agent pickup are a lot higher since the contracts tend to be much larger.

Originally Posted by Hogskin

Again I will offer my challenge. Repost your original statement in this thread after week 10, and let's look at its validity then. In fact, repost my initial response also - if I am wrong, have at it and I will be here to take it on the chin and eat crow (both friendly and unfriendly).

I can tell you that by Week 10, you will be right. As I said in my initial post I think Brunell will lead us to the playoffs this season and definately next season. But I'm evaluating this offseason's moves in terms of its long-term impact as in 2-3 years from now.

[Hogskin]

Originally Posted by Ramseyfan

I can tell you that by Week 10, you will be right. As I said in my initial post I think Brunell will lead us to the playoffs this season and definately next season. But I'm evaluating this offseason's moves in terms of its long-term impact as in 2-3 years from now.

Well, I did not merely mean that the Redskin record would show the validity or lack of it. I also meant that by week 10, there will be SOME clue as to the future of your draft selections. I would predict (based just on past statistics), that of your 5 picks (leaving Cooley out, who we got anyhow), At least one will no longer be in the NFL, and not more than 2 will have any significant impact whatsoever. Of course it will take longer for definitive results, but this would be a pretty good indication.

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

Originally Posted by Hogskin

Well, I did not merely mean that the Redskin record would show the validity or lack of it. I also meant that by week 10, there will be SOME clue as to the future of your draft selections. I would predict (based just on past statistics), that of your 5 picks (leaving Cooley out, who we got anyhow), At least one will no longer be in the NFL, and not more than 2 will have any significant impact whatsoever. Of course it will take longer for definitive results, but this would be a pretty good indication.

Okay, fair enough....I'll take you up on that.