WP's Jason LaCanfora: The Crystal Ball - Redux

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

The Crystal Ball, Redux
America's nondenominational Christmas Eve is finally upon us. Are you ready for some (free agent) football?

I'm going to take a stab at predicting what goes down today based on all of the reporting I've been doing over the last month, and particularly the last 48 hours. Free agency officially begins at 12:01 am, but, come on, it really gets going about 3 days before the combine when the chatter heats up between teams and agents and some parameters begin to fall into place. I don't intend for this post to take precedence over the original Crystal Ball - that still stands - but meant this as more of a one-day snapshot just before the money starts getting throw around for real.

Without a doubt LB London Fletcher remains the Skins' top dog, and re-signing Derrick Dockery is a huge priority as well. By all indications, Fletcher will be at Redskins Park Saturday and I still believe a deal with him gets done that day. The Bills would like to keep him and Detroit showed some interest, I heard, but the Lions have seemed to back off recently (getting into a bidding war with Dan Snyder can bring pause). Fletcher is represented by Drew Rosenhaus, who is a figure of great disdain in the Buffalo organization from what I gather (another of his Buffalo clients, McGahee, is on the trading block), while The Snyder loves doing business with him.

Last I heard the Skins and Dock still had a divide to bridge and I continue to hear that Kris Dielman and Eric Steinbach, the top two guards on the market, will get in the range of $12 million guaranteed. So Dock's got to think he's going to get paid. I still wonder if it will take giving him something in line with Jansen's new contract (the Skins standard $5 million to sign with a $5 million guaranteed bonus the following March) to get this thing done once and for all. I still think they keep him, but might not get it done before the start of free agency.

The Skins and Lions continue to talk about CB Dre' Bly. Denver, Atlanta and New Orleans are in the hunt, too. Problem for the Skins is that they have no picks between No. 6 overall and the fifth round to trade in this draft and the Lions are rebuilding (aren't they always?). Still, the Skins are pushing. I also hear that Washington has a dual role in these trade talks as well, however, beyond Bly. The Skins want to get more picks in this draft - trading down from No., 6 continues to be the word - and don't rule out a weird three-way trade between the Skins, Lions and Denver in which maybe Bly lands with the Broncos but the Skins get back that 2007 third-round pick that went to Denver in the ill-fated three-way deal for T.J. Duckett (who, as fate would have it, I hear might be signing with the Lions as a UFA).

Got all that? I can't rule out the Skins getting Bly themselves - as this situation remains in flux and will be all day - and I have a feeling they leave the trade table doing something here, even if it is landing a draft pick.

Again, they like Smoot a lot. He is expected to be cut sometime tonight and I expect the Skins to pounce. How the Smoot/Bly stuff goes will impact the Springs situation, although cutting him in June remains a distinct possibility.

However, I don't think Nate Clements will be too feasible at this point. This dude might end up trumping Champ Bailey's deal from a few years back given how crazy this 2007 market is going, and the Skins aren't going to give him $20 million to sign. In fact, I would be surprised if Washington is his initial free agent stop. Now, should he see a few teams - I hear San Francisco and Tennessee could be his first two destinations - the Skins will certainly monitor the situation and they will do what they can, but I can't see them as a frontrunner on this one, especially with the Smoot and Bly options in play.

As for defensive end, I continue to think the draft is the area where this will be most heavily addressed. While few around Redskins Park really think the Giants will trade Strahan, and even fewer imagine them sending him to a division rival with two years still on his contract, if the buck-toothed one's meeting with NY officials turns sour and they do shop him, expect the Skins to make a push. Now, I don't think they would add a whole bunch of years to his deal - they know he's got two seasons left at most - but sure, Dan would throw him some frontloaded cash in a new bonus to get something done. Say what you will about the owner, but he's never been afraid to dip into his pocket to try to win (even when misguided at times).

Again, I don't think Strahan is going anywhere and no one I spoke to around the league did either, but never say never. A lot of the ends the Skins really liked (Kelsay, for one) have been re-signed or franchised so the market is think. They like Patrick Kerney but he's been injury prone and is a high motor guy more than a real freak of nature pass rusher and again, for once I see them showing some restraint in what could be a totally out-of-whack market given the limited supply of decent players available. I don't see them being a frontrunner for him, either. Denver could be where he lands.

As for offense, with Fauria cut, they have no one behind Cooley. Todd Yoder in the end will probably take what they offer to come back and I still think they add another TE. From what I have gathered, the Skins not in the mix for Eric Johnson, Kyle Brady or Marcus Pollard (trade) at this point, and I can't see them breaking the bank to get the guy in New England. Have not been able to nail anything down firm on Jerramy Stevens, so maybe he's getting some interest. Can't say for sure, still working on it.

Other than that, unless Renaldo Wynn takes a paycut and an offer with essentially no guaranteed money I think he could get cut today. Can't see John Hall still on the roster Friday and Patten could go, too. Springs restructuring has been at a stalemate but I will continue to monitor that as well.

Will check in throughout the day. Happy hunting.

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha

The Skins want to get more picks in this draft - trading down from No., 6 continues to be the word - and don't rule out a weird three-way trade between the Skins, Lions and Denver in which maybe Bly lands with the Broncos but the Skins get back that 2007 third-round pick that went to Denver in the ill-fated three-way deal for T.J. Duckett.

I have no idea how this scenario would work out. Anyone care to speculate?

[MTK]

Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha

I have no idea how this scenario would work out. Anyone care to speculate?

Good luck, it took months for people to figure out the Duckett deal.

[SmootSmack]

Good stuff. See they liked Kelsay too! I'll bet they were originally targeting Justin Smith though . I think they will trade down if Adams isn't there at 6

I think Smoot is coming back, Bly could come here for a mid to late round pick, but not before they bring back Smoot...SMOOTSMACK!!!

[Hog1]

GOOD read!

[JWsleep]

Must say that Jason's blog has become the #1 source for skins info. Glad he's doing it on a regular basis. Plus, it's often a fun read.

The #1 source for intelligent discussions of the skins, on the other hand, is...

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha

I have no idea how this scenario would work out. Anyone care to speculate?

Detroit sends Bly to the Redskins for a 2008 3rd rounder

Redskins send Bly and the 6th overall pick in the 2007 draft to Denver for the Broncos first (#21) and the Broncos two 3rd round picks

That makes little to no sense I know, but what the hey. It's fun (now I'll wait for someone to crack some joke about how this is how the Skins front office works anyway)

[freddyg12]

Originally Posted by TAFKAS

Detroit sends Bly to the Redskins for a 2008 3rd rounder

Redskins send Bly and the 6th overall pick in the 2007 draft to Denver for the Broncos first (#21) and the Broncos two 3rd round picks

That makes little to no sense I know, but what the hey. It's fun (now I'll wait for someone to crack some joke about how this is how the Skins front office works anyway)

This wouldn't be too bad a deal, we move down 15 spots & get a 3rd rnd. pick, but considering its Denver & we basically gave them that pick they ought to give us something more & you would hope that our fo would play hardball for once & see how bad another team wants a player. They could at least offer their 2nd, which is probably not much higher than the 3rd that they got from us.

[FRPLG]

Originally Posted by TAFKAS

Detroit sends Bly to the Redskins for a 2008 3rd rounder

Redskins send Bly and the 6th overall pick in the 2007 draft to Denver for the Broncos first (#21) and the Broncos two 3rd round picks

That makes little to no sense I know, but what the hey. It's fun (now I'll wait for someone to crack some joke about how this is how the Skins front office works anyway)

To me we'd need to get better than two 3rd rounders to move from 6 to 21. A 2nd rounder is needed.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by FRPLG

To me we'd need to get better than two 3rd rounders to move from 6 to 21. A 2nd rounder is needed.

Yeah I thought about first, second, and third

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

Originally Posted by JWsleep

Must say that Jason's blog has become the #1 source for skins info. Glad he's doing it on a regular basis. Plus, it's often a fun read.

The #1 source for intelligent discussions of the skins, on the other hand, is...

I definately think his blog is a good read and pretty reliable. I think it's important to remember, however, that he puts info. in the blog that is part speculation and not necessarily "ripe enough" to be put the in the print edition. So, when he said that the contract negotiations with Jansen, Brunell, and Springs "could" get sticky, he was probably right, it just worked out that the negotiations worked out with Jansen and Brunell and probably will not work out for Springs.

[irish]

Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha

The Crystal Ball, Redux
America's nondenominational Christmas Eve is finally upon us. Are you ready for some (free agent) football?

I'm going to take a stab at predicting what goes down today based on all of the reporting I've been doing over the last month, and particularly the last 48 hours. Free agency officially begins at 12:01 am, but, come on, it really gets going about 3 days before the combine when the chatter heats up between teams and agents and some parameters begin to fall into place. I don't intend for this post to take precedence over the original Crystal Ball - that still stands - but meant this as more of a one-day snapshot just before the money starts getting throw around for real.

Without a doubt LB London Fletcher remains the Skins' top dog, and re-signing Derrick Dockery is a huge priority as well. By all indications, Fletcher will be at Redskins Park Saturday and I still believe a deal with him gets done that day. The Bills would like to keep him and Detroit showed some interest, I heard, but the Lions have seemed to back off recently (getting into a bidding war with Dan Snyder can bring pause). Fletcher is represented by Drew Rosenhaus, who is a figure of great disdain in the Buffalo organization from what I gather (another of his Buffalo clients, McGahee, is on the trading block), while The Snyder loves doing business with him.

Last I heard the Skins and Dock still had a divide to bridge and I continue to hear that Kris Dielman and Eric Steinbach, the top two guards on the market, will get in the range of $12 million guaranteed. So Dock's got to think he's going to get paid. I still wonder if it will take giving him something in line with Jansen's new contract (the Skins standard $5 million to sign with a $5 million guaranteed bonus the following March) to get this thing done once and for all. I still think they keep him, but might not get it done before the start of free agency.

The Skins and Lions continue to talk about CB Dre' Bly. Denver, Atlanta and New Orleans are in the hunt, too. Problem for the Skins is that they have no picks between No. 6 overall and the fifth round to trade in this draft and the Lions are rebuilding (aren't they always?). Still, the Skins are pushing. I also hear that Washington has a dual role in these trade talks as well, however, beyond Bly. The Skins want to get more picks in this draft - trading down from No., 6 continues to be the word - and don't rule out a weird three-way trade between the Skins, Lions and Denver in which maybe Bly lands with the Broncos but the Skins get back that 2007 third-round pick that went to Denver in the ill-fated three-way deal for T.J. Duckett (who, as fate would have it, I hear might be signing with the Lions as a UFA).

Got all that? I can't rule out the Skins getting Bly themselves - as this situation remains in flux and will be all day - and I have a feeling they leave the trade table doing something here, even if it is landing a draft pick.

Again, they like Smoot a lot. He is expected to be cut sometime tonight and I expect the Skins to pounce. How the Smoot/Bly stuff goes will impact the Springs situation, although cutting him in June remains a distinct possibility.

However, I don't think Nate Clements will be too feasible at this point. This dude might end up trumping Champ Bailey's deal from a few years back given how crazy this 2007 market is going, and the Skins aren't going to give him $20 million to sign. In fact, I would be surprised if Washington is his initial free agent stop. Now, should he see a few teams - I hear San Francisco and Tennessee could be his first two destinations - the Skins will certainly monitor the situation and they will do what they can, but I can't see them as a frontrunner on this one, especially with the Smoot and Bly options in play.

As for defensive end, I continue to think the draft is the area where this will be most heavily addressed. While few around Redskins Park really think the Giants will trade Strahan, and even fewer imagine them sending him to a division rival with two years still on his contract, if the buck-toothed one's meeting with NY officials turns sour and they do shop him, expect the Skins to make a push. Now, I don't think they would add a whole bunch of years to his deal - they know he's got two seasons left at most - but sure, Dan would throw him some frontloaded cash in a new bonus to get something done. Say what you will about the owner, but he's never been afraid to dip into his pocket to try to win (even when misguided at times).

Again, I don't think Strahan is going anywhere and no one I spoke to around the league did either, but never say never. A lot of the ends the Skins really liked (Kelsay, for one) have been re-signed or franchised so the market is think. They like Patrick Kerney but he's been injury prone and is a high motor guy more than a real freak of nature pass rusher and again, for once I see them showing some restraint in what could be a totally out-of-whack market given the limited supply of decent players available. I don't see them being a frontrunner for him, either. Denver could be where he lands.

As for offense, with Fauria cut, they have no one behind Cooley. Todd Yoder in the end will probably take what they offer to come back and I still think they add another TE. From what I have gathered, the Skins not in the mix for Eric Johnson, Kyle Brady or Marcus Pollard (trade) at this point, and I can't see them breaking the bank to get the guy in New England. Have not been able to nail anything down firm on Jerramy Stevens, so maybe he's getting some interest. Can't say for sure, still working on it.

Other than that, unless Renaldo Wynn takes a paycut and an offer with essentially no guaranteed money I think he could get cut today. Can't see John Hall still on the roster Friday and Patten could go, too. Springs restructuring has been at a stalemate but I will continue to monitor that as well.

Will check in throughout the day. Happy hunting.

I know its Xmas eve here in DC because the offseason is the Redskins best time of the year and the Redskins seem to think they can assemble free agents and be successful (even though its never worked yet). However, in cities where successful franchises reside its just another day

[SkinEmAll]

Originally Posted by irish

I know its Xmas eve here in DC because the offseason is the Redskins best time of the year and the Redskins seem to think they can assemble free agents and be successful (even though its never worked yet). However, in cities where successful franchises reside its just another day

grouch.

[Pocket$ $traight]

Originally Posted by irish

I know its Xmas eve here in DC because the offseason is the Redskins best time of the year and the Redskins seem to think they can assemble free agents and be successful (even though its never worked yet). However, in cities where successful franchises reside its just another day

I guess they should just give up Dock and put the same team out there next year.

$1.4 billion companies don't think that way my friend.

Another thing about a Smoot signing. It might give the Danny the offseason sizzle that he is looking for without having to sign the biggest name.

[MTK]

Originally Posted by irish

I know its Xmas eve here in DC because the offseason is the Redskins best time of the year and the Redskins seem to think they can assemble free agents and be successful (even though its never worked yet). However, in cities where successful franchises reside its just another day

Probably not, I can't imagine one NFL team no matter how successful that hasn't dove head first into preparing for free agency.