How good will JaMarcus Russell be at the Pro Level?

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

Originally Posted by That Guy

btw, daunte went from pro-bowler/possible MVP in minnesota to total joke in miami (possibly all due to injury), garcia went from good in SF, to terrible in cleveland AND detriot, to good in philly. plummer went to denver and had a couple good years. brunell, hasslebeck, and favre were all traded from their original franchises before they got to start and ended up doing pretty well.

archie manning was a good QB that could have been better if on a different team.

but the real reason you don't see a lot for average QBs turn into studs 6 years in after switching teams is cause at that point they've either had a stable environment to learn and work in over a good number of years, or they're considered a backup and brought in to learn a totally new system that they may or may not be used to with new players, possibly an entrenched starter, etc. It's just a hard transition. I mean, peyton's only known ONE system. same for brady, and mcnabb, and... that's gotta be part of it.

I mean, the teams that keep churning through 1st round busts are the same ones that keep changing coaches, systems, and players for the most part. detroit, oakland, cleveland, etc. of course, that doesn't mean all those QB picks were good ideas in the first place (who EVER thought boller would be any good? continuity DID help him, but only marginally).

I do agree that, at least for most QBs, they tend to how you what they got within a few years, unless they're backing up favre or named mark rypien.

man where have you been

[redskins159]

Picking a QB with the 1st pick is like playing russian roulette. I wouldnt pick him.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by EARTHQUAKE2689

nah man he will be a great qb has all the tools

Which worked out wonderful for Akili Smith and Cade McNown.

[skinsfan69]

If you look at all the QB's drafted in the first round the last 20 years I bet less than 50% turned out to be good NFL qb's. A guy with Russell's passing ability comes along once every 10 years or so. Guys with Quinn's ability come along every year.

But if Russell goes to Oak. he doesn't have a chance for a few years. But Quinn could go to Det. and play well right away.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

A guy with Russell's passing ability comes along once every 10 years or so. Guys with Quinn's ability come along every year.

How do you figure?

[dmek25]

i think skinsfan69 has it back wards. every year someone wows all the NFL guys with superior arm strength. but the play making and decision making of someone like Quinn is seen every 5-10 years. i think Quinn is definitely the better pro prospect

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by dmek25

i think skinsfan69 has it back wards. every year someone wows all the NFL guys with superior arm strength. but the play making and decision making of someone like Quinn is seen every 5-10 years. i think Quinn is definitely the better pro prospect

I agree. My critics might say that I've been on the "Brady Quinn man train" for awhile now.

I don't agree with the notion that necessarily one QB like Quinn comes around every 5-10 years. I mean, Leinart last year is probably a better pro prospect, Rivers and Roethlisberger in 2004, Carson Palmer 4 years ago, maybe even Pennington in 2000. All these guys will probably have better pro careers than Quinn, but this is the type of class Brady Quinn is right on the cusp of.

I completely and utterly agree that a guy like Russell comes along every year and steals the hearts of all the scouts with non NFL football related skills. It's funny really, and it just goes to show how completely off some scouts can be in their analysis...and how unwilling to learn from their mistakes they are. There is NO EXCUSE to not have QB grading down to a near exact science by now (after all these years of trial and error), but I believe that most scouts are ignorant fools.

Quinn just has done in college exactly what it takes to be successful at the next level: a long and successful college career.

Russell would have been quite a pro prospect if he stayed in school another year, but the best he can hope for now is to be the next Rex Grossman, and get on a team that has a SB caliber defense and play adequately enough to win a championship.

With the massive success of guys like Pennington and Leinart, there's really no excuse to fall into the arm strength trap anymore. This goes double when people bad mouth a guy like Quinn, who has more than adequate arm strength.

I've seen numerous comparisions between Russell's 60 yd "butt throw", and Kyle Boller's 50 yard throw from one knee. It's beyond baffling that the people making these comparision actually haven't bothered to stop and look at how Kyle Boller actually turned out.

This leaves me with one conclusion: NFL scouts are completely and utterly clueless when it comes to projecting college players, especially QBs.

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Which worked out wonderful for Akili Smith and Cade McNown.

and mcnabb and marino and montana and manning i can go on and on but i fear i will die listing names

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

How do you figure?

you know guys like leinart,cutler, alex smith, carson palmer,

[GTripp0012]

Masterfully written article by John Clayton illustrating my point:

ESPN.com - NFL/DRAFT07 - Clayton: Evaluating QBs just got tougher

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by EARTHQUAKE2689

and mcnabb and marino and montana and manning i can go on and on but i fear i will die listing names

Quake, I have no idea what your point is. Mine is that physical skills count for next to nothing at this level.

Damn, do I admire your sig though.

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Masterfully written article by John Clayton illustrating my point:

ESPN.com - NFL/DRAFT07 - Clayton: Evaluating QBs just got tougher

u have a point but so do i just showing that draft picking is not a science it is a luck thing

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Quake, I have no idea what your point is. Mine is that physical skills count for next to nothing at this level.

Damn, do I admire your sig though.

my point is that once again there is no sure thing when it comes to drafting anybody thats all i am trying to say

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by EARTHQUAKE2689

u have a point but so do i just showing that draft picking is not a science it is a luck thing

At some point, you just have to hope you picked the right guy. That doesn't mean that certain features (like college experience) generally indicate a good prospect.

At QB, however, its a whole different animal. There is just so much data on college QBs that we can easily correlate any first round talent with the busts of the last ten years or the guys who panned out. Like, I can say with 99% certainty that Quinn>Russell. Brady Quinn just has to stay healthy and avoid circumstances that could ruin his career. Russell should have stayed in school one more year.

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

At some point, you just have to hope you picked the right guy. That doesn't mean that certain features (like college experience) generally indicate a good prospect.

At QB, however, its a whole different animal. There is just so much data on college QBs that we can easily correlate any first round talent with the busts of the last ten years or the guys who panned out. Like, I can say with 99% certainty that Quinn>Russell. Brady Quinn just has to stay healthy and avoid circumstances that could ruin his career. Russell should have stayed in school one more year.

god man i respect the hell out of you but i just cant put quinn over russell man i just cant inhave weighed every possible option and i just cant