Disgusted with Bonds?

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by FRPLG

Thats a lot of homers. Over a ot of time. Not even worth a discussion until someone gets close to 500 really. A-Rod is realistic. But health will be the key.

I absolutely agree. Look at Griffey...he was tabbed as the guy to beat Aaron, and look at what happened to him.

Look at Manny Ramirez's numbers. Even if he hits 40 homers a year for the next 5 years, he'll still only hit 670, and he'll then be 39, going on 40 into the new season. He has some great numbers too...just shows you how good you have to be, and the even more important element is longevity.

Here are the guys with the best shots:

Alex Rodriguez 464hr by age 30
Albert Pujols 250hr by age 26
Andrew Jones 342hr by age 29
Vlad Guerrero 338hr by age 30
Adam Dunn 198hr by age 26

Assuming they all play to be 40, here is what they need to average per season to reach Aaron:
A-Rod: 29.10
Pujols: 36.07
Jones: 37.55
Vlad : 41.70
Dunn: 39.79