SGG's Pick the President Poll

[JWsleep]

Here's my general impression:

A dem will win the WH due to anti-Bush backlash alone. People are VERY done with the administration, and it showed in the midterms. Plus, it's very hard to hold the WH for 12 years, and the Bushies have not groomed a candidate in the VP slot as is usual. So I disagree with SBF's claim about the dems, though I agree they have no real plan or anything.

So, who is going to win the dem primaries? Hillary. She's got the most cash, the best team, and she knows how to play hardball. And Bill is one of the best politicians of the last few decades (note: I did not say leader or human being!), and he's her top adviser.

My guess is Obama will trip up, and his lack of experience will be his downfall. Edwards has a rousing stump speech, but it won't carry him through the big primaries where the deal is done by labor unions, local party hacks, etc. (Iowa means less and less, IMO, especially with the crazy front-loaded primary schedule.)

The republicans will lose the general election due to the backlash factor. And as for the "people hate Hillary" thing, sure, but those are mostly republicans anyway. In this election, whoever is the democratic candidate gets NY and CA for free. Then it's just a matter of picking up a few more states--look, Kerry (who was LAME) almost won, given the electoral map. She just needs a few more states, and she and her team know how to get them, IMO.

So it's Hillary. I'm ok with that--she been a decent centerist/pragmatist in the Senate, she's a "liberal hawk" on defense/IR, and she's proven she can play well with others. Plus, she's part of the New Dem caucus that melds free trade to the usual democratic issues--see NAFTA, for what it's worth. And she'll most likely bring in some of the good people from Bill's administration. Finally, DC, especially in the executive branch, needs a good housecleaning. I doubt a republican could do that, but a dem will have a mandate to fix CIA, INS, EPA, FEMA, and all those other departments that the Bushies have gutted and filled with political hacks (to the great detriment of our nation's security). So I'm going with Hillary.

And I'm psyched to have Bill back in the WH chasing tail. I miss those days when that was the worst thing going on in the world.