Raiders Pick Up Culpepper

[GTripp0012]

It's unreasonable to expect Daunte to be the Daunte of 2004 this year in Oakland.

But lets say for sake of argument he is. How much does this help the Raiders over last year?

• The Raiders' point differential was -164 last season, good for about 2.7 "pythagorean wins" (pretty standard for a 2-14 team).
• In 2004, Culpepper was worth 136.4 "points" above replacement.
• In 2006, Raiders QBs were worth a combined 52.6 points below replacement.
• The difference is 189 points! That would have made the Raiders point differential +25 last season.
• That's roughly 9 pythagorean wins.
• A healthy Daunte Culpepper (albiet having a career year), is worth 7 wins to the Raiders over a 16 game season.

While completely unscientific, I guarentee no QB not named Peyton Manning has ever been the difference between 2-14 and 9-7 for his team. But that's how good this signing has the potential to be, assuming Culpepper is healthy.

Possible comeback player of the year award here if the Raiders go 8-8 or better.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

It's unreasonable to expect Daunte to be the Daunte of 2004 this year in Oakland.

But lets say for sake of argument he is. How much does this help the Raiders over last year?

• The Raiders' point differential was -164 last season, good for about 2.7 "pythagorean wins" (pretty standard for a 2-14 team).
• In 2004, Culpepper was worth 136.4 "points" above replacement.
• In 2006, Raiders QBs were worth a combined 52.6 points below replacement.
• The difference is 189 points! That would have made the Raiders point differential +25 last season.
• That's roughly 9 pythagorean wins.
• A healthy Daunte Culpepper (albiet having a career year), is worth 7 wins to the Raiders over a 16 game season.

While completely unscientific, I guarentee no QB not named Peyton Manning has ever been the difference between 2-14 and 9-7 for his team. But that's how good this signing has the potential to be, assuming Culpepper is healthy.

Possible comeback player of the year award here if the Raiders go 8-8 or better.

I take it you're assuming that all else remains equal for the Raiders from 2006 to 2007, and therefore you'd be attributing all of the gains in wins to Duante.

But of course there have been a lot of other changes, Lane Kiffin being the biggest. Signings, draft classes, new coaches, and players flat out playing better or worse are all other ways for the Raiders to change their pythagorean wins this season.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

I take it you're assuming that all else remains equal for the Raiders from 2006 to 2007, and therefore you'd be attributing all of the gains in wins to Duante.

But of course there have been a lot of other changes, Lane Kiffin being the biggest. Signings, draft classes, new coaches, and players flat out playing better or worse are all other ways for the Raiders to change their pythagorean wins this season.

Well, yeah of course.

But I think any change for the Raiders would be positive, on the offensive side at least.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Well, yeah of course.

But I think any change for the Raiders would be positive, on the offensive side at least.

Yeah they probably would be, simply because there's nowhere to go but up. Defensively, you could say the opposite. There's more room for a backslide than there is for an improvement.

But really, I was intending to say that '04 Culpepper's points over replacement isn't entirely attributable to his amazing skill. He had a lot of factors working for him that can't be separated from the points over replacement calculations; a much better offensive line than the Raiders have, a much better receiving corps than the Raiders have (Wiggins was a great safety valve, Moss was a great deep threat, and Burleson was a mix of both), and a scheme that Culpepper was comfortable with.

In other words, I don't think any points over replacement calculations are applicable here to the Raiders. Because the only way '07 Culpepper can look like '04 Culpepper is if he gets the blocking that '04 Culpepper had, gets the WRs that '04 Culpepper had, and learns the scheme as intimately as '04 Culpepper did.

In sum, I think Culpepper is a really, really good QB. But he's in a situation where he can't possibly look any better than ordinary, IMO.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Yeah they probably would be, simply because there's nowhere to go but up. Defensively, you could say the opposite. There's more room for a backslide than there is for an improvement.

But really, I was intending to say that '04 Culpepper's points over replacement isn't entirely attributable to his amazing skill. He had a lot of factors working for him that can't be separated from the points over replacement calculations; a much better offensive line than the Raiders have, a much better receiving corps than the Raiders have (Wiggins was a great safety valve, Moss was a great deep threat, and Burleson was a mix of both), and a scheme that Culpepper was comfortable with.

In other words, I don't think any points over replacement calculations are applicable here to the Raiders. Because the only way '07 Culpepper can look like '04 Culpepper is if he gets the blocking that '04 Culpepper had, gets the WRs that '04 Culpepper had, and learns the scheme as intimately as '04 Culpepper did.

In sum, I think Culpepper is a really, really good QB. But he's in a situation where he can't possibly look any better than ordinary, IMO.

All true. And the assumption behind the calculation was that Culpepper would overcome all that to post identical production to 2004. In reality, he probably doesn't have the tools around him to have any shot of replicating that performance, but that doesn't mean that the results still wouldn't rock the NFL if he could play very well at the position for the Raiders.

Basically I was just having fun with the numbers, not really trying to use them to predict anything.

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

It's unreasonable to expect Daunte to be the Daunte of 2004 this year in Oakland.

But lets say for sake of argument he is. How much does this help the Raiders over last year?

• The Raiders' point differential was -164 last season, good for about 2.7 "pythagorean wins" (pretty standard for a 2-14 team).
• In 2004, Culpepper was worth 136.4 "points" above replacement.
• In 2006, Raiders QBs were worth a combined 52.6 points below replacement.
• The difference is 189 points! That would have made the Raiders point differential +25 last season.
• That's roughly 9 pythagorean wins.
• A healthy Daunte Culpepper (albiet having a career year), is worth 7 wins to the Raiders over a 16 game season.

While completely unscientific, I guarentee no QB not named Peyton Manning has ever been the difference between 2-14 and 9-7 for his team. But that's how good this signing has the potential to be, assuming Culpepper is healthy.

Possible comeback player of the year award here if the Raiders go 8-8 or better.

Very good post.
However, I will point out, that WR's / TE's and of course your line, do indeed make the difference in those numbers. Oakland does not have a good DL, nor WR's, nor TE's. While Culpepper has a great amount of talent, and I do think he can return to form, I don't think he'll do it in Oakland. The sub par team will take him down with them.
I said it before, I thought Culpepper was dumb for signing with Oakland, he needs to show the world what he can do. In Oakland he will be the lone star. I wish him luck, but I am not expecting him to have numbers that reflect his talent this year.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

It's unreasonable to expect Daunte to be the Daunte of 2004 this year in Oakland.

But lets say for sake of argument he is. How much does this help the Raiders over last year?

• The Raiders' point differential was -164 last season, good for about 2.7 "pythagorean wins" (pretty standard for a 2-14 team).
• In 2004, Culpepper was worth 136.4 "points" above replacement.
• In 2006, Raiders QBs were worth a combined 52.6 points below replacement.
• The difference is 189 points! That would have made the Raiders point differential +25 last season.
• That's roughly 9 pythagorean wins.
• A healthy Daunte Culpepper (albiet having a career year), is worth 7 wins to the Raiders over a 16 game season.

While completely unscientific, I guarentee no QB not named Peyton Manning has ever been the difference between 2-14 and 9-7 for his team. But that's how good this signing has the potential to be, assuming Culpepper is healthy.

Possible comeback player of the year award here if the Raiders go 8-8 or better.

Huh?? Is this Trig 101?

Culpepper does not have Randy Moss and Chris Carter in their prime. He might help a little but I don't think he is worth 7 wins. Not with that O-line. Raiders win 4-6 games this year and they will be right back in the top 5 of the NFL draft next year.

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

Huh?? Is this Trig 101?

Culpepper does not have Randy Moss and Cris Carter in their prime. He might help a little but I don't think he is worth 7 wins. Not with that O-line. Raiders win 4-6 games this year and they will be right back in the top 5 of the NFL draft next year.

I honestly don't know why people say this like it's a fact.
Fact is, during Culpepper's best season (04), there was no Chris Carter, and Moss was 3rd on the team in receptions (almost 4th since Robinson had 2 fewer receptions). Nate Burlson was his favorite target that season.
Granted Moss missed 3 games, but Culpepper spread it around to others including Jermaine Wiggins who led the team with 71 receptions.

ps- Cris Carter in his prime????? 2 years at the end of his career you call in his prime? Culpepper had him in 2000 and 2001 (although only for 11 games in 01). There is no doubt that Moss and Carter were a great combo, but fact is, Culpepper has shown himself to be a great QB without heavily relying on either of them. We are so quick to dismiss his stats with comments like Moss and Carter, but again I say, look at his 04 numbers, one of the greatest qb seasons EVER and Moss was not his #1 wr.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

Huh?? Is this Trig 101?

Culpepper does not have Randy Moss and Chris Carter in their prime. He might help a little but I don't think he is worth 7 wins. Not with that O-line. Raiders win 4-6 games this year and they will be right back in the top 5 of the NFL draft next year.

Chris Carter was not with the Vikings in 2004.

Randy Moss WAS part of both the 2004 Vikings, and 2006 Raiders, although a limited factor both seasons as he was injured.

All this shows is that the 2006 Raiders+2004 Culpepper=9-7 team. Roughly. That's it.

[Cowell]

Culpepper is done and he never really was an amazing QB that everyone put him up to be. It's not tough when you have a Randy Moss in his pro-football prime as your WR.