Portis v. Betts: The Grass is Always Greener

[dgack]

I've been a staunch CP defender for a long time, and I don't think that the argument is "Ladell is better than Clinton", but more like "something is wrong with Clinton and Ladell might be on par with him". Or, put a different way, "for a guy with supposedly so much more talent, CP surely isn't producing that much more than Betts".

Such arguments only make sense in the context of "well, if we traded Portis for..." type scenarios.

For the record, I think something is DEFINITELY wrong with Portis, just as I think something is wrong with Santana. And both of their issues go beyond the O-line.

Also, though you're correct about their respective yd/carry stats, I think that's a pretty weak argument given that Betts has had roughly a third of the touches that Portis has. More carries equal more opportunities to establish a rhythm and break off longer runs, which increase your average. And, Portis himself loves to claim that he "gets stronger as the game goes on" (though that's total horseshit).

Frankly, the most damning stat in the run game is that even though he's had 3X the number of carries, CP's long run of the season is a tepid 19 yard jog, while Betts' long is 13.

Want to see a disturbing trend? Look at Portis' career rushing longs since he entered the league. They go down every year after his second year in Denver.

59, 65, 64, 47, 38, 19

Those are not the be all, end all of stats, and doesn't mean he's totally washed up, but those "big plays" are a hallmark of a "game changing" back, and the rapid disappearance of those big plays from Portis' stat sheets, IMHO, points to a simple fact that some here need to come to grips with:

Simply put, CP is not the guy we acquired from Denver for Champ. He's not even the same guy who fought through injuries in '05 to set the franchise rushing record. Right now, as far as a pure rusher, he's below NFL average.

Doesn't mean he doesn't "fight his guts out", or that he isn't a great blocker, locker room leader, etc. But I think it means that he is not really likely to be a major element in winning games for this team, at least not this year. And time is against him, as it is against all NFL RB's.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by dgack

I've been a staunch CP defender for a long time, and I don't think that the argument is "Ladell is better than Clinton", but more like "something is wrong with Clinton and Ladell might be on par with him". Or, put a different way, "for a guy with supposedly so much more talent, CP surely isn't producing that much more than Betts".

Such arguments only make sense in the context of "well, if we traded Portis for..." type scenarios.

For the record, I think something is DEFINITELY wrong with Portis, just as I think something is wrong with Santana. And both of their issues go beyond the O-line.

Also, though you're correct about their respective yd/carry stats, I think that's a pretty weak argument given that Betts has had roughly a third of the touches that Portis has. More carries equal more opportunities to establish a rhythm and break off longer runs, which increase your average. And, Portis himself loves to claim that he "gets stronger as the game goes on" (though that's total horseshit).

Frankly, the most damning stat in the run game is that even though he's had 3X the number of carries, CP's long run of the season is a tepid 19 yard jog, while Betts' long is 13.

Want to see a disturbing trend? Look at Portis' career rushing longs since he entered the league. They go down every year after his second year in Denver.

59, 65, 64, 47, 38, 19

Those are not the be all, end all of stats, and doesn't mean he's totally washed up, but those "big plays" are a hallmark of a "game changing" back, and the rapid disappearance of those big plays from Portis' stat sheets, IMHO, points to a simple fact that some here need to come to grips with:

Simply put, CP is not the guy we acquired from Denver for Champ. He's not even the same guy who fought through injuries in '05 to set the franchise rushing record. Right now, as far as a pure rusher, he's below NFL average.

Doesn't mean he doesn't "fight his guts out", or that he isn't a great blocker, locker room leader, etc. But I think it means that he is not really likely to be a major element in winning games for this team, at least not this year. And time is against him, as it is against all NFL RB's.

Solid post. However, the numbers show that Portis gets more yards per carry in the 2nd half versus the 1st half and more ypc during carries 11-20 versus carries 1-10.

Clinton Portis: Situational Stats

So he does get "better" with more carries. I think most starting backs do.