Loose Change

[FRPLG]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

After all, a 92% payout means they earn eight cents per dollar played. That's how they roll.

Exactly.

This is the proper way to look at it. Every dollar you spend THEY MAKE 8 cents.

Extrapolate this over a large sample and it shows the picture.

Casinos in Vegas traffic close to $100,000,000 a DAY. The 92% being talked about is actually a relatively GOOD payout for a casino game. And let's be honest, all the games are in the end the same. You are betting on something happening that is more than likely NOT going to happen. That is the house advantage. If you use the 8% as the MAX the casinos are winnig (and it is probably very far from the max. They are actually probably pulling in the nieghborhood of 13-17%) Then vegas casinos make 8 MILLION DOLLARS A DAY. That is a normal day. A big day like Superbowl Sunday or a fight day and they are easily clearing 30 mil. It is how they stay in busniess. It is how the can afford to comp so much. It is how winning at roulette as a rule is impossible.

[GTripp0012]

Though, in Jsarno's defense, if the goal is to go into the night, and quit as soon as any money is made, the probability of leaving with less than you started with is pretty low.

Of course, you get that one bad string of luck where you keep playing to try to finish above, you lose many months of work by the system.

Sample size is totally going to eat the system up every time. Doyle Brunson (many time poker champ) used to say that he would play a lot more hands when his luck was running hot because he 1) made better decisions, and 2) could capitalize on his luck run while sitting tight during a period of cold cards.

The difference between Roulette and Poker is that Sample Size will eventually kill any Roulette system if you play long enough, where a poker player can continue to profit at the expense of the other players.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by jsarno

Now you can lock this thread mods cause I am about to do what I usually don't.

Schneed ...you are bar none the biggest asshole on this site. The reason people don't like you here is cause you talk soooo much shit when you don't know what you're talking about. Is it a little penis syndrome...probably.
I have explained over and over to you that you CAN NOT be rich with this system of make a living off it cause it's not a "break the bank" system. I even went so far as to tell you in the past that if you played every day for a year using my system that you would only win around 60k. Yet you ignore everything I say? It's for fun and small winnings you piece of shit. I even gave you the bare basics and asked you to try it for free, and you didn't. Why? Cause you'd rather be prick that points his pussy little finger at others and points out flaws. Well good for you Schneed, you must be a really big man sitting there not trying a thing and "guessing" that it wouldn't work because of your so called education. You are the most narrow minded individual I have ever had the displeasure of knowing...internet or not. You are the typical fart sniffer.
It has nothing to do with you being critical, if it was, you would have stopped commenting on me a LONG TIME ago...so everyone should ask themselves, "why is schneed still going, when jsarno chose to stop and discuss things via PM?" Cause Schneed doesn't know how to handle himself with dignity and class, and he has his own little world that he lives in that exists only in his head. To put down others makes Schneed feel better cause he likely has a dead end job and a failed marriage or relationship (quite possibly the best relationship he has is with his right hand), and of COURSE none of it was his fault. His life sucks, and it's everyone else's fault...right schneed? Why else would you LIVE for going on a website and ignoring everything that people tell you and then point out over and over and over and over and over and over what you think, and don't even display it as opinion, but fact? We heard you the first time you egomaniacal putz. Why do you think no one wanted you at the game last year schneed? It's not cause you're a "hell-u-va" guy! Now do us all a favor, and for one ****ing time in your life, shut your damn pie hole. Be a credit to this site, not a damn self imposed judge, jury, and executioner. The fact that there was a joke here about how there would only be 10 people on this site if you were a mod speaks VOLUMES about your character.

I want to publicly apologize to everyone here for this post, and if mods see fit to ban me for a little while, I will accept with no fuss. My comments are uncalled for, for everyone to see anyway. I can just no longer take schneed's B.S. I have sat back and watched him be rude to person after person after person with little to no consequences, and I am tired of him berading people over and over again. It's enough...someone needed to say it. This site has gotten me through a lot of rough times, and I feel that a lot of you are like family, I enjoy coming to this site. But I usually have to scroll past a schneed post as it belittles someone, or it is just a "retarded thread" comment. I have had enough, and I could be silent about it no longer. I feel I lost quite a few IQ points just writing this post, but I feel it needed to be said. Again, I apologize to EVERYONE, EXCEPT Schneed. The rest of you didn't need to see this.

LOL!!!

A summary for those who missed it, jsarno said something idiotic (his gambling system works), I called him idiotic, and now he acts idiotic. If it quacks like a duck...

You even convicted yourself further here as the Warpath Village Idiot by saying that your system will only win you 60K in a year. If you want to up those rewards, you easily can by heading over to the high roller tables where you can bet thousands per spin. Simply do the math, if it supposedly always works at low betting levels, it will always work on higher betting levels too (a roulette wheel is a roulette wheel no matter how much you're betting). There's no risk, right? So sell your house, cash in your 401K, close your bank accounts, and head to Vegas. You'll have pockets deep enough to execute your system with $100 to $1000 bets per spin. If it always works, what's the risk? You could make much more than $60K per year, well into the 6 figures.

But you're the expert on the system, I guess karma only works on the $10 tables?

As for your comments, they're so childish (no surprise there) that they don't deserve a response, except to say that if I've got a reputation around here, it's for calling it as I see it. And the way I see this? You're either:

1) A guy writing a book on a system in an attempt to prey upon the uneducated, hoping to sell books under the farce that a gambling system can mathematically work, or

2) You actually believe the system works, despite taking stat classes as part of your MBA curriculum, and are so hardheaded that you can't listen to countless educated statistics people on this site who tell you you're wrong.

That's how I see it, and either way I'm not a fan.

[SmootSmack]

I think we should leave it alone at this point. Clearly, I think the majority of us don't buy into jsarno's system-to me, it just doesn't make sense-but if he believes it works then let him believe it. It's not our money he's gambling away. No one's mind is going to change on this so why force it any longer?

[Schneed10]

Yeah, I'm not going to get into a childish war involving namecalling because it's pointless. I'll continue to debate the notion that any gambling system can work until I'm blue in the face, but a namecalling match doesn't interest me.

I will, however, note that I've received recent rep points for my arguments within this thread. Someone, who shall remain nameless, referred to you as a nice guy jsarno, but seeing you so hardheaded and unwilling to listen to reason made them take some kind of pleasure in seeing a strong argument go against you. More than one person took enough pleasure in it to give me positive rep points.

The rep points aren't my goal, I could care less about them. But it makes a key point; while you're busy worrying about being friendly and getting along, I'm worried about being right.

Being right doesn't mean I have to be an ass about it, for sure. But there are people out there who are enjoying seeing you get dressed down, because you're more than just trying to be friendly, you're ignoring reason. And people don't like that. So if you want to have this wonderful family atmosphere here on the Warpath, where everybody loves you and gets you through tough times, try listening to them.

[DynamiteRave]

This thread is starting to end up like a car accident. Terrible but you can't help but rubberneck...

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Yeah, I'm not going to get into a childish war involving namecalling because it's pointless. I'll continue to debate the notion that any gambling system can work until I'm blue in the face, but a namecalling match doesn't interest me.

I will, however, note that I've received recent rep points for my arguments within this thread. Someone, who shall remain nameless, referred to you as a nice guy jsarno, but seeing you so hardheaded and unwilling to listen to reason made them take some kind of pleasure in seeing a strong argument go against you. More than one person took enough pleasure in it to give me positive rep points.

The rep points aren't my goal, I could care less about them. But it makes a key point; while you're busy worrying about being friendly and getting along, I'm worried about being right.

Being right doesn't mean I have to be an ass about it, for sure. But there are people out there who are enjoying seeing you get dressed down, because you're more than just trying to be friendly, you're ignoring reason. And people don't like that. So if you want to have this wonderful family atmosphere here on the Warpath, where everybody loves you and gets you through tough times, try listening to them.

I also don't think anyone should be taking pride in being right on this issue.

Look, it takes guts to step outside of the box and try to develop a successful system where none has been developed before. I'm not going to bash Jsarno for trying to do to Roulette what I've been trying to do with football player eval for the last two years.

It, however, takes even more guts to admit that no matter how much thought you put into a system, that all the effort was for naught. People tend to develop psychological biases towards what they are doing, and it becomes temporarily impossible to think clearly and logically towards the situation.

You and I both know that he will come around eventually, and realize that he can't beat the odds in a large sample. You stated your position, backed it up with the cold facts, and then added your signature, and often unnecessary "charm" to your posts.

You are right, and he is wrong, but it's not his fault that this evolved into a pissing match.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by DynamiteRave

This thread is starting to end up like a car accident. Terrible but you can't help but rubberneck...

I want to see how many different topics we can come up with in one thread that bring it close to being locked...without actually locking it

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I also don't think anyone should be taking pride in being right on this issue.

Look, it takes guts to step outside of the box and try to develop a successful system where none has been developed before. I'm not going to bash Jsarno for trying to do to Roulette what I've been trying to do with football player eval for the last two years.

It, however, takes even more guts to admit that no matter how much thought you put into a system, that all the effort was for naught. People tend to develop psychological biases towards what they are doing, and it becomes temporarily impossible to think clearly and logically towards the situation.

You and I both know that he will come around eventually, and realize that he can't beat the odds in a large sample. You stated your position, backed it up with the cold facts, and then added your signature, and often unnecessary "charm" to your posts.

You are right, and he is wrong, but it's not his fault that this evolved into a pissing match.

But see, it's not about a pissing match and simply trying to win an argument. I've got better things to do. I'm honestly turned off by the fact that he's writing a book about it. To me, it's no better than the scam artists from Nigeria who write countless spam email messages to 75 year old women telling them that they've been granted a royal inheritance.

I'll add some of the Schneed charm here and there throughout the site, but I'm sure you'll recognize that this level of charm was very different. I see jsarno as a scam artist looking to write, publish, and sell a book based on a mathematical fallacy. When it comes down to it, it's morally wrong.

Being right or wrong isn't even priority one here for me. Doing right or wrong is. And if this thread helped to educate even one person on The Gambler's Fallacy, then good.

[SmootSmack]

Something tells me he's not going to end up publishing the book (just my hunch).

Either way, I really think we can just drop it now.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

But see, it's not about a pissing match and simply trying to win an argument. I've got better things to do. I'm honestly turned off by the fact that he's writing a book about it. To me, it's no better than the scam artists from Nigeria who write countless spam email messages to 75 year old women telling them that they've been granted a royal inheritance.

I'll add some of the Schneed charm here and there throughout the site, but I'm sure you'll recognize that this level of charm was very different. I see jsarno as a scam artist looking to write, publish, and sell a book based on a mathematical fallacy. When it comes down to it, it's morally wrong.

Being right or wrong isn't even priority one here for me. Doing right or wrong is. And if this thread helped to educate even one person on The Gambler's Fallacy, then good.

Like Smootsmack said, it takes a lot of work to publish a book when you have internal questions about the reception of your argument. Additionally, as you would probably say yourself, it's the consumers own damn fault for buying such a book when the Gambler's Fallacy is relatively common knowledge.

I'd say the (im)probability that jsarno is a scam artist who tried to post his knowingly false ideas on a public fourm (after 6,500 posts) free of charge before actually making the decision to publish borders on "insane", but then again I'm not the logical guru in this neck of the woods.

Maybe you did convince one person of the Gambler's Fallacy today, but if that person doesn't post under the alias "jsarno", then I doubt you were successful.

Anyway, I think it's high time to call a spade a spade. IMO, when jsarno tried to pull the "it's not always about stats" argument, he was probably trying to pull the quiet cop out, because we all know it IS about stats when it comes to Roulette. IMO, the competence of this thread died right there, and since then, it's really been an unwarranted pissing match.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Something tells me he's not going to end up publishing the book (just my hunch).

Either way, I really think we can just drop it now.

Know what's funny, I was just getting ready for bed and as I took off my pants (down, ladies) I found 35 cents in the pocket.

And the thread comes full circle!

[DynamiteRave]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Know what's funny, I was just getting ready for bed and as I took off my pants (down, ladies) I found 35 cents in the pocket.

And the thread comes full circle!

Now if only there was a penny minimum roulette table!

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Know what's funny, I was just getting ready for bed and as I took off my pants (down, ladies) I found 35 cents in the pocket.

And the thread comes full circle!

Yes, but what happens if you take your pants off 10,000 times I keed, I keed

(please no videotapes)

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Yes, but what happens if you take your pants off 10,000 times I keed, I keed

(please no videotapes)

Didn't you hear? That's a proven method for enlarging your wee wee.

Too far?