Offer made on Chad (1st rd '08, conditional 3rd rd '09)

[firstdown]

Originally Posted by SC Skins Fan

Wide Receivers are not running backs. Elite players do not fall off the face of the planet at 30 so I think this oft repeated argument is bogus. Let's examine.

WR production after 30 -

Jerry Rice:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 12.5
1,000 yard seasons - 8 (including best season - 1,848 yards, 15 tds in 1995 at the age of 32/33)
Jerry Rice

Chris Carter:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 7
1,000 yard seasons - 6 (including 1,274 yards, 9 tds in 2000 at age 34/35)
Cris Carter

Art Monk:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 8
1,000 yard seasons - 2 of the 5 he had in his career (including 1,049 yards, 8 tds in 1991 at age 33/34)
Art Monk

Tim Brown:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 9
1,000 yard seasons - 6 (including 1,344 yards, 6 tds in 1999 at age 33 - last 1,000 yard season came in 2001 at age 35)

Marvin Harrison:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 6 and counting
1,000 yard seasons - 5 and counting (including 1,386 yards, 12 tds in 2006 at age 34)

Terrell Owens:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 4 and counting
1,000 yard season - 3 and counting (would have been 4 if not for getting Keyshawned; included 1,355 yards, 15 tds in 2007 at age 33/34)

Randy Moss:
Seasons played after turning 30 - 1
1,000 yard seasons - 1 (including 1,493 yards, 23 tds in 2007 at age 30)

So let's not bring up the age argument when talking about Chad Johnson. It is a phantom argument with no basis in fact. If we use historical precedent as a guide it is likely more accurate to say Johnson has 5-8 good/great years left and that he is actually in the midst of his 'prime'.

Well if you look at the history of WR's in general I bet your wrong. You listed 7 WR's and there are how many that have played the game in that time span? I could go in and pick a ton in that span who's # that dropped off after 30. Its a crap shot and you think he is good for another 4 to 5 years (which I think he is) you just don't know when the body is going to turn on a player. I'm not saying your wrong I just don't think history is on your side in this situation.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by firstdown

Well if you look at the history of WR's in general I bet your wrong. You listed 7 WR's and there are how many that have played the game in that time span? I could go in and pick a ton in that span who's # that dropped off after 30. Its a crap shot and you think he is good for another 4 to 5 years (which I think he is) you just don't know when the body is going to turn on a player. I'm not saying your wrong I just don't think history is on your side in this situation.

By the same token, SC could select a ton of WRs selected in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft who will never (have never) achieved the sort of numbers in their entire career that Chad Johnson does in one season. So what's the bigger gamble? That Johnson will crash like Cris Dishman or that we're drafting the next Hart Lee Dykes?

[KLHJ2]

Originally Posted by firstdown

Well if you look at the history of WR's in general I bet your wrong. You listed 7 WR's and there are how many that have played the game in that time span? I could go in and pick a ton in that span who's # that dropped off after 30. Its a crap shot and you think he is good for another 4 to 5 years (which I think he is) you just don't know when the body is going to turn on a player. I'm not saying your wrong I just don't think history is on your side in this situation.

I agree with him. He is not going to do your research for you, you have to prove him wrong. Otherwise your argument holds no water because you listed no specifics. Give examples of Elite recievers who fell off at 30.

[SKINSnCANES]

Originally Posted by Angry

I agree with him. He is not going to do your research for you, you have to prove him wrong. Otherwise your argument holds no water because you listed no specifics. Give examples of Elite recievers who fell off at 30.

Ive got one, Mike Westbrook...he just didnt have the love for it anymore after 30!

[KLHJ2]

Originally Posted by SKINSnCANES

Ive got one, Mike Westbrook...he just didnt have the love for it anymore after 30!

You're right, he was in love with other things instead. Just ask Stephen Davis.

[SC Skins Fan]

Originally Posted by firstdown

Well if you look at the history of WR's in general I bet your wrong. You listed 7 WR's and there are how many that have played the game in that time span? I could go in and pick a ton in that span who's # that dropped off after 30. Its a crap shot and you think he is good for another 4 to 5 years (which I think he is) you just don't know when the body is going to turn on a player. I'm not saying your wrong I just don't think history is on your side in this situation.

I think the money argument offered above by some is better than the age argument. I'm sure you could find plenty of WRs who dropped off after 30, but I bet they wouldn't have the credentials of Chad Johnson. The guy has 6 straight 1,000 yard seasons, has averaged 1,340 yards and 8 tds over that span (and not all those years were with Carson Palmer either before someone makes that argument). So you can't just cherry pick some WR, you have to come with perennial Pro Bowl talent whose performance dropped off after 30. I bet you will be hard pressed to find your examples.

Let's take it from 1990 and WRs with multiple Pro Bowl appearances (# of 1,000 yard seasons after 30 in parenthesis):

• Andre Reed (2, noted decline in 1999 age 35)
• Jerry Rice (see previous)
• Andre Rison (1)
• Sterling Sharpe (n/a career ending injury at age 29)
• Tim Brown (see previous)
• Gary Clark (0)
• Michael Irvin (2)
• Irving Fryar (4)
• Chris Carter (see previous)
• Herman Moore (0 - perhaps the best counter example available)
• Isaac Bruce (2 - perhaps another)
• Torry Holt (2 for 2)
• Jimmy Smith (7)
• Randy Moss (see previous)
• Eric Moulds (1)
• Terrell Owens (see previous)
• Hines Ward (0)
• Steve Smith (n/a not yet 30)
• Donald Driver (3 for 3)

I've probably spent too much time on this, but I think the point stands. It would stretch credulity to put some of the above with Johnson and, frankly, there are only a handful of guys over the past 15-20 years we probably could accurately compare him to. Isaac Bruce might provide the best counter example, but Jimmy Smith adds another example on the over 30 side. I'd say the point stands that elite receivers do not decline over 30 and that most continue to produce at a high level until around age 35, and some longer.

Dirtbag offers good reasons above for why this is, particularly the lower level of physical pounding a wide receiver takes vis-a-vis a running back.

[That Guy]

Originally Posted by firstdown

Well if you look at the history of WR's in general I bet your wrong. You listed 7 WR's and there are how many that have played the game in that time span? I could go in and pick a ton in that span who's # that dropped off after 30. Its a crap shot and you think he is good for another 4 to 5 years (which I think he is) you just don't know when the body is going to turn on a player. I'm not saying your wrong I just don't think history is on your side in this situation.

go ahead and back it up with proof then. dominant WRs only though, not crap players that bounced around the league.

galloway is ancient and still had 1k seasons beyond 30 (at 36 i think).

it's not a crap shoot, WRs don't take much abuse, and he just showed that history is on his side. I mean, i understand not wanting to be wrong, but come on.