Backup center discussion

[GMScud]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

OK. But using the Law of Averages to say we're due for an injury-free season is bad reasoning, just making sure that kind of reasoning isn't creeping in here.

The Law of Averages says we should have an "average" injury season. Last year's ravage is in the past, and has no bearing on this year. We're not due for an injury-free year any more than we're due to repeat the ravage.

You're right in saying it's dumb luck. But that's why they call it "dumb" luck. It can't even itself out.

What we're really saying here is that last year we had an abnormally high number of games missed along the line. Chances are we won't have to endure that again, as it was a pretty rare event to be that ravaged. But that doesn't mean we should be injury free. The law of averages states that we should have an "average" number of games missed along the line.

Well, I never said we were due for a totally injury-free season. But I think the chance of repeating the rash of injuries in consecutive seasons is much more remote than just randomly have one such season. The Law of Averages talks about random events evening things out. I simply said that given how ravaged we were last season, it would be that much more unlikely for it to occur again. And the Law of Averages agrees with that, as an "average" amount of injuries this year would mean far less than last year for us.