Early Vegas Line: Lions favored by 2

CultBrennan59 · 10-27-2010, 12:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by itvnetop

Lions are rested, off a bye also... this is going to be a tough game.

Oh Sh!t I didn't even realize that they had a bye...that just makes me even more nervous about this game

SkinzWin · 10-27-2010, 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mattyk

I actually feel better with Stafford in there vs. Shaun Hill. Stafford is bound to be rusty coming back from injury. Hill is also more mobile and was a scrambling threat.

That is exactly what I was going to say Matty. After doing some investigatory journalism:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mattyk

I actually feel better with Stafford in there vs. Shaun Hill. Stafford is bound to be rusty coming back from injury. Hill is also more mobile and was a scrambling threat.

That is exactly what I was going to say Matty. After doing some investigatory journalism:

Matthew Stafford
Year-09 Team-SF GMS-10 TD-13 INT-20 Fumbles-4 QB Rating-61.0

Shaun Hill
Year-07 Team-SF GMS-3 TD-5 INT-1 Fumbles-2 QB Rating-101.3
Year-08 Team-SF GMS-9 TD-13 INT-8 Fumbles-4 QB Rating-87.5
Year-09 Team-SF GMS-6 TD-5 INT-2 Fumbles-3 QB Rating-79.6
Year-10 Team-DET GMS-6 TD-9 INT-7 Fumbles-1 QB Rating-79.6

Number can lie but only so much. Seems like Hill might be a better option right now for the Lionesses. However, I am not saying Stafford will not be better in the future, just not right now. He is essentially a rookie coming off of a 6 week injured stint so I see him as being very rusty and I think this can be played to our advantage. Yes he does have a cannon for an arm, but I like our chances. The who Hill/Stafford debate is a moot point anyway as Shaun Hill has a broken forearm and is not going to be able to suit up.

calia · 10-27-2010, 07:01 PM

By the way, not all talking heads think the Lions will win this one: NFL.com Blogs » Blog Archive Playbook picks: Could Bills get first win? «

GTripp0012 · 10-27-2010, 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SkinzWin

That is exactly what I was going to say Matty. After doing some investigatory journalism:

That is exactly what I was going to say Matty. After doing some investigatory journalism:

Matthew Stafford
Year-09 Team-SF GMS-10 TD-13 INT-20 Fumbles-4 QB Rating-61.0

Shaun Hill
Year-07 Team-SF GMS-3 TD-5 INT-1 Fumbles-2 QB Rating-101.3
Year-08 Team-SF GMS-9 TD-13 INT-8 Fumbles-4 QB Rating-87.5
Year-09 Team-SF GMS-6 TD-5 INT-2 Fumbles-3 QB Rating-79.6
Year-10 Team-DET GMS-6 TD-9 INT-7 Fumbles-1 QB Rating-79.6

Number can lie but only so much. Seems like Hill might be a better option right now for the Lionesses. However, I am not saying Stafford will not be better in the future, just not right now. He is essentially a rookie coming off of a 6 week injured stint so I see him as being very rusty and I think this can be played to our advantage. Yes he does have a cannon for an arm, but I like our chances. The who Hill/Stafford debate is a moot point anyway as Shaun Hill has a broken forearm and is not going to be able to suit up.

I'd say that grabbing Stafford's rookie stats aren't going to do very much to tell you what Stafford is going to play like. It'd be much safer and smarter to take Shaun Hill's 2010 line, the QB rating of 79.6, and plug that in for Stafford.

We don't really know what Stafford can accomplish in excess of that, perhaps nothing, but that would be the level of expectation for Stafford's play over the second half of the year, given that Hill was no. 2 on the depth chart there in camp.

GusFrerotte · 10-27-2010, 07:40 PM

Also Stafford as a true Rook, totally outplayed JC. Now DM is better than JC, but his stats aren't really DM like this season.

saden1 · 10-27-2010, 07:45 PM

The Lions are good despite their record. They could just as easily be 5-1. Let's not forget how they rolled the Rams who rolled us not too long ago. I have a really bad feeling about this game...our offense better come to play!

Gmanc711 · 10-27-2010, 08:34 PM

I'll say this, I do think the Lions are a better football team than the Bears, despite their record. This is a game I still think we *should* win, but as I've said many times in this thread already, I wouldn't be shocked if we lost... I agree with Matty as well, I think I'd rather have Stafford in there, during his first game back. Shaun Hill was on a pretty nice roll before he got hurt against NY... and I agree that Stafford might have some rust on the way back. We'll see though. Does anyone really remember what went wrong last year? I mean obviously we were 4-12 and a bad team overall...but in this game specifically, why did we lose?

saden1 · 10-27-2010, 08:36 PM

If Stafford has a rough start you can bet your ass he will be pulled.

saden1 · 10-27-2010, 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gmanc711

I'll say this, I do think the Lions are a better football team than the Bears, despite their record. This is a game I still think we *should* win, but as I've said many times in this thread already, I wouldn't be shocked if we lost... I agree with Matty as well, I think I'd rather have Stafford in there, during his first game back. Shaun Hill was on a pretty nice roll before he got hurt against NY... and I agree that Stafford might have some rust on the way back. We'll see though. Does anyone really remember what went wrong last year? I mean obviously we were 4-12 and a bad team overall...but in this game specifically, why did we lose?

We didn't have a QB, a running game or a coach worth a damn. Besides that we couldn't convert a 3rd down or stop it...Oh and we had piss poor time management.

Gmanc711 · 10-27-2010, 08:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saden1

We didn't have a QB, a running game or a coach worth a damn. Besides that we couldn't convert a 3rd down or stop it...Oh and we had piss poor time management.

Ha I just watched the highlights on youtube .... remember when we stopped the Lions on 3rd down from the 35, and instead of forcing them to kick a 53 yard field goal, we pushed them back on a penalty, only to have them score a TD? Zorn was the best.

KLHJ2 · 10-28-2010, 10:25 AM

Yeah it pisses me off when a coach opts to push a team back on 3rd down. I would much rather take away their oportunity altogether. You can overcome a yardage deficit but not if you were never given enough chances.

Monkeydad · 10-28-2010, 10:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saden1

If Stafford has a rough start you can bet your ass he will be pulled.

Not a chance. He's their franchise QB. They left him in with a paralyzed arm last year.

Dread-Skin · 10-28-2010, 10:35 AM

It seems anytime a team is favored by 3 or less just means they have no clue and it will be too close to call until the better defense (SKINS) gets a turnover. Im suprised with Stafford coming back that doesnt raise doubt but they are a decent run team but they probably couldnt factor in us having Big Albert is "Game shape". Theres no telling how disruptive he may be up the middle. Skins win by 13.

Dirtbag59 · 10-28-2010, 11:30 AM

It's funny how Vegas works. Not only do they have to consider everything that could affect the outcome of the game, but they also have to think about weather or not the odds they provide will serve as motivation for the teams involved.

Mc2guy · 10-28-2010, 03:59 PM

Keep in mind that Vegas betting odds are not designed to predict a winner, they are designed to even out the action on both teams so the house doesn't get stuck with a huge payoff. You will see certain teams with a large betting fan base often get points in games, not because they are the better team, but because there is so much action on that team that the booking houses up the spread to try and push action to the dog. If the increased spreads don't work to even out action, they'll shut down the game to new bets to protect against payoff risk.

Make no mistake, Vegas doesn't care who wins, just as long as they get their vig.

10-27-2010, 07:01 PM	#63
calia Playmaker Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Woodside, CA Age: 57 Posts: 3,746	Re: Early Vegas Line: Lions favored by 2 By the way, not all talking heads think the Lions will win this one: NFL.com Blogs » Blog Archive Playbook picks: Could Bills get first win? «

10-27-2010, 07:40 PM	#65
GusFrerotte Registered User Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Detroit area Posts: 4,153	Re: Early Vegas Line: Lions favored by 2 Also Stafford as a true Rook, totally outplayed JC. Now DM is better than JC, but his stats aren't really DM like this season.

10-27-2010, 07:45 PM	#66
saden1 MVP Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Seattle Age: 46 Posts: 10,069	Re: Early Vegas Line: Lions favored by 2 The Lions are good despite their record. They could just as easily be 5-1. Let's not forget how they rolled the Rams who rolled us not too long ago. I have a really bad feeling about this game...our offense better come to play! __________________ "The Redskins have always suffered from chronic organizational deformities under Snyder." -Jenkins

10-27-2010, 08:34 PM	#67
Gmanc711 Thank You, Sean. Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Gaithersburg, MD Age: 39 Posts: 7,506	Re: Early Vegas Line: Lions favored by 2 I'll say this, I do think the Lions are a better football team than the Bears, despite their record. This is a game I still think we should win, but as I've said many times in this thread already, I wouldn't be shocked if we lost... I agree with Matty as well, I think I'd rather have Stafford in there, during his first game back. Shaun Hill was on a pretty nice roll before he got hurt against NY... and I agree that Stafford might have some rust on the way back. We'll see though. Does anyone really remember what went wrong last year? I mean obviously we were 4-12 and a bad team overall...but in this game specifically, why did we lose? __________________ #21

10-27-2010, 08:36 PM	#68
saden1 MVP Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Seattle Age: 46 Posts: 10,069	Re: Early Vegas Line: Lions favored by 2 If Stafford has a rough start you can bet your ass he will be pulled. __________________ "The Redskins have always suffered from chronic organizational deformities under Snyder." -Jenkins

10-28-2010, 10:25 AM	#71
KLHJ2 Inactive Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: DC Metro Area Age: 47 Posts: 5,829	Re: Early Vegas Line: Lions favored by 2 Yeah it pisses me off when a coach opts to push a team back on 3rd down. I would much rather take away their oportunity altogether. You can overcome a yardage deficit but not if you were never given enough chances.

10-28-2010, 10:35 AM	#73
Dread-Skin Special Teams Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: Towson area Posts: 288	Re: Early Vegas Line: Lions favored by 2 It seems anytime a team is favored by 3 or less just means they have no clue and it will be too close to call until the better defense (SKINS) gets a turnover. Im suprised with Stafford coming back that doesnt raise doubt but they are a decent run team but they probably couldnt factor in us having Big Albert is "Game shape". Theres no telling how disruptive he may be up the middle. Skins win by 13.

10-28-2010, 11:30 AM	#74
Dirtbag59 Naega jeil jal naga Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Atlanta, Georgia From: Silver Spring, Maryland Age: 40 Posts: 14,750	Re: Early Vegas Line: Lions favored by 2 It's funny how Vegas works. Not only do they have to consider everything that could affect the outcome of the game, but they also have to think about weather or not the odds they provide will serve as motivation for the teams involved. __________________ "It's nice to be important, but its more important to be nice." - Scooter "I feel like Dirtbag has been slowly and methodically trolling the board for a month or so now." - FRPLG

10-28-2010, 03:59 PM	#75
Mc2guy Special Teams Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Burke, VA Age: 48 Posts: 287	Re: Early Vegas Line: Lions favored by 2 Keep in mind that Vegas betting odds are not designed to predict a winner, they are designed to even out the action on both teams so the house doesn't get stuck with a huge payoff. You will see certain teams with a large betting fan base often get points in games, not because they are the better team, but because there is so much action on that team that the booking houses up the spread to try and push action to the dog. If the increased spreads don't work to even out action, they'll shut down the game to new bets to protect against payoff risk. Make no mistake, Vegas doesn't care who wins, just as long as they get their vig.

Early Vegas Line: Lions favored by 2

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