Your final prediction for #10

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by 30gut

I'll bite, but will I get a response?
I just had a similar discussion already in another thread.

When I look at Locker and Gabbert (after watching several games from each and charting 1 of each player's games) they're similar prospects except Locker is more athletic and more of a playmaker which is an important to trait to certain schools of thought.(see the sig)*

-Locker played under much more physical and mental duress week to week due to the talent disparity at Washington and his decision to return.


-Locker has performed under the pressure of essentially carrying a bad team.
For me knowing that Locker can handle those pressures and answer the bell when his team needs him most carries a lot of weight.

I'm not saying that Gabbert can't do what I talk about above but we know know that Locker can because we've seen it.
Gabbert has been skittish at times and who knows how he will respond to playing on a team that is very well.........limited in regards to talent?



Here's how I sum up Gabbert:
very clean efficient throwing motion (to my eye the best in the draft), consistent mechanics, quick release, good accuracy escpecially in the short to intermediate passing game, decent throwing on the run, good arm strength along with some athleticism those are the franchise tools he brings to the table you can build an offense around that skillset especially his throwing consistency.

Locker: good clean motion, quick release, needs to improve on consistency, good accuracy to all levels of the field, elite throwing on the run, near elite arm strength, elite athleticism.

Another plus is that Locker played 2 years in a pro-style offense that ran plays with the same concepts as the Denver/Houston WCO and he has more experience operating under center in a rhythm based 3-5-7 step drop offense, making line-calls, audibles, site adjustments and pre-snap reads.



Now to everyones favorite 'knock' against Locker accuracy or ball placement.

Here's my take:The teams that value/drafts Locker won't/don't think he has 'accuracy issues' beyond those legitamtely caused by the 0-12 talent around him, specifically up front along the OL.





Here's roughly how I grade this class, keep in mind the average at the end doesn't actually equal the grade because different categories carry different weights.



I think both QBs are scheme diverse.
I can see why Locker might be more tempting to Mike Shanahan because Elway himself said that Locker reminds him of well...himself.

But, as much as I like Locker and Gabbert as prospects I find it hard to believe that we should or need to trade up to No.2 to get them.

There are other good QB prospects in this draft and some good developmental prospects in the 3rd-4th rounds if we can't get a a tier 1 or 2 QB.

If I can put your Locker argument in more objective terms, is it that: he's been starting for four years and through repetition we know that his mental and physical duress (specifically pass pressure) is more valuable because he's had to overcome more of it to be where he is. I certainly do not think Locker plays on a different level of mental and physical duress than Gabbert. That would draw a distinction where one does not exist. But he's been battling since 2007, which should not be overlooked.

I think you're right that we know what we're getting in Locker (character-wise). Ultimately, that's the knockout punch against him as a prospect (ability-wise), but it's still valuable to know that you're getting a good kid that has been through the worst of it in college and can handle the worst of what the NFL throws at him.

We're less certain of Gabbert as a prospect because we have seen less of him, I agree. But we also should be more certain that he can do it because Gabbert at his "worst" helped to build a 2010 season where Missou was in the Nat'l title picture for 2/3 of the regular season before taking a loss to OU, where as Locker at his best took a less than able team to roughly .500, and did most damage through individual key big plays against weaker competition whereas Gabbert was more consistent down to down and accomplished what he did not through highlights but through staying ahead of the opponent on first, second, and third down, the traits that will make him successful in the NFL.

[30gut]

GP

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I certainly do not think Locker plays on a different level of mental and physical duress than Gabbert. That would draw a distinction where one does not exist. But he's been battling since 2007, which should not be overlooked.

This is one area we disagree.
I think Locker has clearly played under far more duress especially physically then Gabbert.

As they say in boxing everyone has a gameplan until they get punched in the face and we've seen Locker get punched in the face and respond.

Will Gabbert?

Maybe they're under equal scrunity and mental pressure but I still say Locker was more under the microscope then Gabbert who is still basically flying under the radar.

I think you're right that we know what we're getting in Locker (character-wise). Ultimately, that's the knockout punch against him as a prospect (ability-wise), but it's still valuable to know that you're getting a good kid that has been through the worst of it in college and can handle the worst of what the NFL throws at him.

You love your presuppostions.
But anyway, if you can't see Locker's ability on film then you won't see it.
But, as much as character shines through the physical skills that make him one of top prospects also shine through after all his character doesn't make clucth plays to win games his arm and legs do.
You get a prospect that can carry a team with 0-12 talent to 7-5 record/bowl game victory on the strength of both his mental and physical skillset.

Ultimately because of the lack of talent around him and his relative newness in his scheme (basiclly a sophmore in Sarks offense) you get a prospect who's best is yet to come.

But we also should be more certain that he can do it because Gabbert at his "worst" helped to build a 2010 season where Missou was in the Nat'l title picture for 2/3 of the regular season before taking a loss to OU, where as Locker at his best took a less than able team to roughly .500, and did most damage through individual key big plays against weaker competition whereas Gabbert was more consistent down to down and accomplished what he did not through highlights but through staying ahead of the opponent on first, second, and third down, the traits that will make him successful in the NFL.

Why would this year be an example of Gabbert's worst but Locker's best?

When did Washington face weaker competition?

Again I think you fall into the trap of mistaking the team for the prospect.

You know I don't go by stats but lets look at their stats in relation to the quality of the their teams:

I think you would agree that Gabbert has the better team?

Gabbert: QB Rating:127--63.6 comp %---16 TD---9 Ints----23 sacks
Locker: QB Rating: 124--55.4 comp%----17 TD---9 Ints----19 sacks

Yet their production doesn't show the disparity you imply in their consistency or 'staying ahead of the opponent on first, second, and third down'.
Especially when Gabbert plays in a spread offense designed to increase efficiency and consistency.

Now, lets say you put Gabbert on Washington and have him take the pounding that Locker received and give Locker the bump in talent that Mizzou would provide in its wide open spread attack.

Do you think the resulting production numbers would be the same as the above?

Also, you didn't address their physical skillsets.