Carson Palmer to Oakland Raiders for 1st/2012

[sportscurmudgeon]

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

Taking this Raiders trade out of the equation, I would imagine that trading Carson Palmer in the 2011 offseason would have resulted in better value for Cincy than trading him in the 2012 offseason. Of course this argument is moot given that the Raiders have overpaid for Palmer.

Don't understand why that is the case.

Only a team who really needs a QB is going to try to make an offer to the Bengals for a guy like Palmer because it is clear that Mike Brown won't release him for a conditional 5th round pick or anything like that. So, why would there be no "QB desperate teams" in the 2012 offseason just as there were ones who wanted Palmer in the 2011 offseason and now one team who needed him in the middle of the 2011 season.

Mike Brown won the lottery. He held on to Carson Palmer and found a team willing to pay a huge price for him. Had Jason Campbell broken his collar bone next weekend instead of last weekend, the Raiders could not have traded for him; the deadline would have passed. The Bengals got lucky; it happens sometimes...

But Carson Palmer would have been worth about the same in the 2012 off-season that he was worth in the 2011 off-season had this bit of luck not fallen in the Bengals' lap.