Make your Case for non-HOFer

[skinster]

Originally Posted by Lotus

You continue to make the same mathematical mistake. My point is pretty simple.

If every player with less than, say, 10 years experience were to retire right now, none of them likely would make the HoF because they would not have long enough careers. And this would tremendously diminish the numbers of prospective HoFers who are in the NFL right now (which is the heart of your claim), thus tremendously reducing your estimate. Therefore you MUST take into account ALL players in your math.

You keep mathematically presuming what you are trying to prove so your math works out wrong.

2 things.

1. Every player with less than 10 years of experience aren't going to retire, that's just an absurd statement to make that won't happen. If the world ended that would also lessen the amount of HOFers in the NFL right now.

2. Even if all players with less than 10 years of experience were to retire, there is still no scenario under which all players should be taken into account. The formula stays the same....60 players just get subtracted at the end as the 10 years worth of players magically retire.

I really hate to pull this card, but I'm on a full scholarship right now because of math. Trust me, I'm right.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by skinster

2 things.

1. Every player with less than 10 years of experience aren't going to retire, that's just an absurd statement to make that won't happen. If the world ended that would also lessen the amount of HOFers in the NFL right now.

2. Even if all players with less than 10 years of experience were to retire, there is still no scenario under which all players should be taken into account. The formula stays the same....60 players just get subtracted at the end as the 10 years worth of players magically retire.

I really hate to pull this card, but I'm on a full scholarship right now because of math. Trust me, I'm right.

The bolded was my point. Of course such a thing won't happen but it is important as a thought experiment. If you think about that long enough, you will see that logically it means that you have to take ALL players into account in your math. And when you do this, your estimate will shrink significantly.

BTW I was a math major who scored 790/800 on the math section and 800/800 on the logic section of the GRE so I can match your "card."

[skinster]

Originally Posted by Lotus

The bolded was my point. Of course such a thing won't happen but it is important as a thought experiment. If you think about that long enough, you will see that logically it means that you have to take ALL players into account in your math. And when you do this, your estimate will shrink significantly.

BTW I was a math major who scored 790/800 on the math section and 800/800 on the logic section of the GRE so I can match your "card."

You don't include something that almost positively will not happen in a prediction. I said the end of the world part sarcastically. If you want conservancy, I already shrunk my estimate as the average HOF career of players drafted since 1980 is 14 years and my formula shrunk it to 12.

Still, even if there's a doomsday scenario, or any other scenario possible, I don't see any scenario under which all players are taken into account. Please write me up a formula to educate me.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by skinster

You don't include something that almost positively will not happen in a prediction. I said the end of the world part sarcastically. If you want conservancy, I already shrunk my estimate as the average HOF career of players drafted since 1980 is 14 years and my formula shrunk it to 12.

Still, even if there's a doomsday scenario, or any other scenario possible, I don't see any scenario under which all players are taken into account. Please write me up a formula to educate me.

But in your formula you are still presuming a 12 year career which is an unsupportable presumption.

I'm done with this issue. I can lead a horse to water and that's all.

[skinster]

Originally Posted by Lotus

But in your formula you are still presuming a 12 year career which is an unsupportable presumption.

I'm done with this issue. I can lead a horse to water and that's all.

Lol. How is it unsupportable? That's the average based on a very long history. We make predictions based on averages. Its a prediction. Is it certain? No. Is it probably accurate? Absolutely.

I'm still waiting on that formula that includes all players.

[los panda]

what percentage of nfl players have 12 year careers?

[skinster]

Originally Posted by los panda

what percentage of nfl players have 12 year careers?

HOF players? most. Of the players drafted since 1980 that made the hall. The average career length is 14 years.