V. Jackson "Prepared to Sit out season"

[GTripp0012]

If you want to directly argue that Brandon Marshall is within 1.3 yards per catch of Andre Johnson, who I rated as the second best receiver in football, I think that's defensible. But when you multiply that over an entire season, you're now looking at 160-230 yards difference (and multiple TDs) over the exact same opportunities. That's probably close to a win/year difference between Johnson and Marshall. And only a handful of wide receivers are worth as much as a win per year. Johnson is likely one.

So, I think, is Vincent Jackson. I think that if we added him, you could add up to a prorated win to our prediction if/when we had him.

[jsarno]

Just an FYI, here is a list of the top YPC last year:
1- Mike Wallace
2- DeSean Jackson
3- Mohamed Massaquoi
t-4- Vincent Jackson
t-4- Malcolm Floyd
6- Chris Chambers
t-7- Patrick Crayton
t-7- Hakeem Nicks
9-Kenny Britt
10- Greg Jennings

The fact that Massaquoi is even on this list makes me laugh considering he had the worst targeted to reception ratio last year.
Throw in Chris Chambers who was a cast off in San Diego, and Patrick Crayton who luckily just found a home recently and this list clearly does not represent great wr's. YPC is solely how they are used, not a barometer of how good the wr is.

[FRPLG]

jsarno...you don't know what a "value" stat is do you?

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by FRPLG

jsarno...you don't know what a "value" stat is do you?

Yes I do, I just hold no value in it. I've already pointed out holes.

Look at it this way, here are Johnson's last 2 seasons:
08- Targets, 170, 115 rec, 1575 yds, 13.7 YPC, 8 td.
09- targets, 171, 101 rec, 1569 yds, 15.5 ypc, 9 tds.

How are those two seasons so vastly different in terms of value?

[FRPLG]

Originally Posted by jsarno

Yes I do, I just hold no value in it. I've already pointed out holes.

Look at it this way, here are Johnson's last 2 seasons:
08- Targets, 170, 115 rec, 1575 yds, 13.7 YPC, 8 td.
09- targets, 171, 101 rec, 1569 yds, 15.5 ypc, 9 tds.

How are those two seasons so vastly different in terms of value?

Don't mistake my question for a challenge. I was simply asking if you knew what Tripp meant when he mentioned "value" stats. You cited a different type of stat and I suspected that you didn't. I also know what Tripp is going to think about the stats you've given. I'll let him address them.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by jsarno

Yes I do, I just hold no value in it. I've already pointed out holes.

Look at it this way, here are Johnson's last 2 seasons:
08- Targets, 170, 115 rec, 1575 yds, 13.7 YPC, 8 td.
09- targets, 171, 101 rec, 1569 yds, 15.5 ypc, 9 tds.

How are those two seasons so vastly different in terms of value?

Higher catch rate, similar yards per target, probably a bit different in role.

If you look at the sabermetrics, Johnson went from other-worldly in 2008 to merely quite good in 2009. But as you seem to have proven above, it's probably not predictive of anything. Johnson still is a threat to get 1,500 yards every year, and though his role may change by who is healthy (his role changed when Owen Daniels got hurt -- probably for the worst), I see no reason to think that Johnson isn't one of the five best receivers in football for the next four years.

Also, as you argued for Marshall (incorrectly), defenses probably were out to make sure that Johnson doesn't beat them as decisively as he did in 2008. You could argue that his 2009 season was even MORE impressive than 2008. However, it wasn't more valuable, at least on those 170 plays that show up in the statistics.

[saden1]

If effectiveness assessments are based on the 10 other players on the field with him I don't know how you can put much stock in value assessments and effectively compare Vincent Jackson to Brandon Marshall or any other two players.

Personally I believe in "Plug a Player and Play™" which is a subjective measurement of a players ability to come in and play at a high "Alpha Gorilla Level™" for any team.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by saden1

If effectiveness assessments are based on the 10 other players on the field with him I don't know who you can put much stock in value assessments and effectively compare Vincent Jackson to Brandon Marshall or any other two players.

Personally I believe in "Plug a Player and Play™" which is a subjective measurement of a players ability to come in and play at a high "Alpha Gorilla Level™" for any team.

Well, you make a very interesting point, because if the argument between two players isn't completely academic, then they do have to produce consistently in the context of their offenses.

I figured that people already know that the Broncos passing offense is blown away by the Chargers. When you look at mediocre passing offenses, look no further than the Broncos from 2006-2009. When you want to look at the best in the league over the same timeframe, look no further than the Chargers.

Of course, people will always look at the quarterback and the offensive line and the coaching staff before looking at WR no. 1, as rightly they should. But that doesn't mean that there isn't enough difference to go around here. The Chargers have proven better at nearly every offensive position than the Broncos since 2006, with a possible exception to the offensive line.

I think the Chargers OL has been underrated, but the Broncos --save 2009-- has been one of the best.

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I figured that people already know that the Broncos passing offense is blown away by the Chargers. When you look at mediocre passing offenses, look no further than the Broncos from 2006-2009. When you want to look at the best in the league over the same timeframe, look no further than the Chargers.

See, this is where you go wrong, while you look at your own opinions, I tend to look at fact. You are amazingly incorrect here. 06 and 09 were the only years the Chargers had a better offense passing. Why would you say what you said if you knew what you were talking about? Clearly you did not know what you were talking about, and here is the proof:
06, Chargers 15th, Broncos 25th
07- Broncos 13th, Chargers 26th
08- Broncos 3rd, chargers 7th.
09- Chargers 5th, Broncos 15th.

Average rank for the Chargers 13.25.
Average rank for the Broncos 14.

So "the best passing offense in the league" averages a ranking of only 13.25 over 4 years, but a mediocre team averages a ranking of only .75 more?

I'm sure you will ignore this evidence as well and go about spouting your own opinions...can't stop you, but please, for once, look up stats before you spew opinions. You're better than this. How many times do I have to blatently show proof your comments are incorrect and you ignore them?

ps- if you want to look at the best in that time frame, may I suggest Saints, Colts, Cardinals for example?

[mredskins]

Isn't nice to have to jsarno back?

Almost as refreshing as a Irish Springs commercial.

[Eknox]

Jsarno I just have one word for you man AWESOME!

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by Eknox

Jsarno I just have one word for you man AWESOME!

LOL...thanks.

[GusFrerotte]

Where were you Jay? It has been a long time!!!!!!!

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by GusFrerotte

Where were you Jay? It has been a long time!!!!!!!

I know. My job, fiance and two kids kept me amazingly busy. Plus, it's hard to stay inside when the weather is a pleasant 72-80 every day and I live about a mile from the beach. LOL.

[GusFrerotte]

Originally Posted by jsarno

I know. My job, fiance and two kids kept me amazingly busy. Plus, it's hard to stay inside when the weather is a pleasant 72-80 every day and I live about a mile from the beach. LOL.

That is a full plate. I love the ocean also, too bad I live in the Detroit area. Glad to see you are back. I need another sane person in here to keep the Gus Frerotte craziness in check.