Iranian Election and Government Structure

[RobH4413]

Originally Posted by 70Chip

There has always been a stong undercurrent of resistance to the theocracy in Iran but I think the main reason it is reaching a critical mass now is that the younger folks there feel empowered enough to act. Remember, that an entire Iranian generation was wiped out in the Iran-Iraq war. That allowed the mullahs to maintain power through a difficult time and for a longer period than might otherwise have been sustainable. Now, the demographics have swung against them. I suspect, however, that we will not see a full-scale counter-revolution. Instead the clerics will make enough concessions to maintain power without completely losing their grip. These protesters are not hard core deomocrats or secularists. They're just pissed that the election was a ripoff. The mullahs will survive, though what emerges will almost certainly better for us than the intransigent regime of recent years.

Your completely right.

What's interesting is that this whole protest is actually putting a ton of pressure on the Ayatollah. He's is pretty much the guy in charge, and the people are showing the complete disdain for that system (Ie HIM). The fact that he's deferred to the guardian council was a move that has basically bought him more time.

Now, these protest could lead the ayatollah to simply oust Ahmadinejad, to appease the people. It's at least created a mini-storm of possibility, and what's incredibly fascinating is that this could possibly be the start of a new Iranian revolution.

What happens with that is anyone's guess.

[firstdown]

Originally Posted by GusFrerotte

As for Iranian democracy, if I am not mistaken didn't the Washington Post just run a story about how they conducted a poll in Iran a week before the election and the poll came out almost identical to the real outcome? Ahjy gets his support from the workers and peasants in the small towns and rural areas which make up the majority of the Iranian population. Mousavi gets his support from the students, the artists, upper class, along with the rich expats abroad. Throw in the typcial DC saber rattling as of late and it is more than believable that Ahjy could win by a 2-1 margin. Another interesting tidbit about Mousavi is that he was the Foreign Minister during the Iran Iraq War, had a hand in Iran Contra, and also is beleived to have had a hand in the creation of Hezbollah, so in reality it might not really matter who wins.

Do you really think they would allow the WP to do a poll that would have any other out come? I think the election was going to be rigged from the get go and thats the only reason they allowed for outside media to come in and cover the election. In their mind this would show the world that the people did support them.