Gibbs' take on Campbell's situation

[MTK]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

Regardless of his year JC will be in the league for years to come, unless he decides to stop. Remember-Patrick Ramsey is still on a team, Minnesota may bring Favre in. JC, short of a imploding 2009 will have plenty of opportunities to try a new environment.

That said, I would be shocked if he doesn't light up the NFL this year. (I am really hoping that Romo, Sanchez and Cutler all flop - yes you can call me petty)

Yeah I really doubt he would be out of the league next year even if he has a bad 2009 season (which I highly doubt would happen anyway). There are plenty of mediocre to flat out bad QBs still earning a paycheck out there.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

Regardless of his year JC will be in the league for years to come, unless he decides to stop. Remember-Patrick Ramsey is still on a team, Minnesota may bring Favre in. JC, short of a imploding 2009 will have plenty of opportunities to try a new environment.

That said, I would be shocked if he doesn't light up the NFL this year. (I am really hoping that Romo, Sanchez and Cutler all flop - yes you can call me petty)

I'm not going to call you petty. I agree. Especially Romo. I hope he's so bad that they bring in Kitna.

As for Sanchez, he's a rook, and most rooks not named Matt Ryan have a tough first year. As for Cutler, I think he'll be missing Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal.

I share your optimism about Campbell. I don't expect Drew Brees but I do expect a QB who will move the chains and, when necessary, carry the team on his back.

[GusFrerotte]

Originally Posted by Angry

I would have to disagree with two points here. First, the reality is that starting QB jobs are at a premium for QB's of JC's talent. In fact there are several former starting QB's that are either jobless or backups who have posted better numbers than JC. Secondly, JC may be at the end of his rookie contract and he may have made more money than you or I in the past few years, but the fact of the matter is that he is one of the lowest paid starting QB's in the league. Unless he has a monster season, no franchise, the Redskins or otherwise is going to give him the typical payday for an above average starting QB.

Just to throw some food for thought out there, I doubt that there is any type of serious interest out there for a QB like Jason Campbell. In both the Cutler and Sanchez attempts the FO was trying to unload JC on the other team as part of the trade bait. This may be irrelevant, but I find it funny that the only time that Vinny and Danny failed to make the blockbuster trade was when they tried to get rid of JC in the process.

My theory is that if he does not have a stellar year, then he will either be a backup or out of the league by 2010. Even if he does have a fairly good season his only shot at a big payday might be with Washington. At this time he has no leverage; he can only play football and prove himself.

No, he is a good QB with not much to work with. He has his flaws of course, but that is only half the problem. Crappy WRs and an always banged up line spells trouble in the NFL and the NFC East. Last season he ranked 13th in passing even with such a crappy supporting cast minus CP and Moss. Think of the potential if he had a solid line and decent WRs. Believe me if Gus Frerotte could land a starting QB gig in 2008, I am sure a younger JC could land one anywhere if he told the Skins to take a hike. He could easily vye for at least a dozen starting jobs upon leaving the Skins.

[GusFrerotte]

Also you have at least what, a half a dozen starters go down at some point in the season? JC could land a starting job easily.

[tryfuhl]

Originally Posted by GusFrerotte

No, he is a good QB with not much to work with. He has his flaws of course, but that is only half the problem. Crappy WRs and an always banged up line spells trouble in the NFL and the NFC East. Last season he ranked 13th in passing even with such a crappy supporting cast minus CP and Moss. Think of the potential if he had a solid line and decent WRs. Believe me if Gus Frerotte could land a starting QB gig in 2008, I am sure a younger JC could land one anywhere if he told the Skins to take a hike. He could easily vye for at least a dozen starting jobs upon leaving the Skins.

Well JC doesn't reverse age.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Angry

I would have to disagree with two points here. First, the reality is that starting QB jobs are at a premium for QB's of JC's talent. In fact there are several former starting QB's that are either jobless or backups who have posted better numbers than JC. Secondly, JC may be at the end of his rookie contract and he may have made more money than you or I in the past few years, but the fact of the matter is that he is one of the lowest paid starting QB's in the league. Unless he has a monster season, no franchise, the Redskins or otherwise is going to give him the typical payday for an above average starting QB.

Just to throw some food for thought out there, I doubt that there is any type of serious interest out there for a QB like Jason Campbell. In both the Cutler and Sanchez attempts the FO was trying to unload JC on the other team as part of the trade bait. This may be irrelevant, but I find it funny that the only time that Vinny and Danny failed to make the blockbuster trade was when they tried to get rid of JC in the process.

My theory is that if he does not have a stellar year, then he will either be a backup or out of the league by 2010. Even if he does have a fairly good season his only shot at a big payday might be with Washington. At this time he has no leverage; he can only play football and prove himself.

I think your conclusion here is absolutely correct, though I think it's for a completely different reason than what you went through.

The fact of the matter is, that the league is overloaded with capable quarterbacks with considerable short term upside who are toiling somewhere buried on rosters. These players either had their development cut short no fault of their own (Leftwich, nearly Campbell and Brees, and to a lesser extent, Patrick Ramsey) after proving that they belonged at this level. That's one type of player. The other type didn't even have a chance to get screwed over on a poorly run team, as the draft process buried them in NFL obscurity.

A team who wanted to build a winner without spending money at the QB position could do so. You could just have a yearly revolving door of reclamation project quarterbacks who have performed well in the past, and will play for you at the league minimum. Your competitive advantage would be established throughout the rest of your team. While other teams tirelessly exert resources trying to find a great quarterback, you could easily get better quarterback play off the waiver wire.

Of course, thanks to the obscene salary floor, this penny pinching philosophy wouldn't make any sense. You have to spend the money, so why not spend it at every position instead of being selective?

If the salary floor and cap were eliminated, the Jason Campbells, Daunte Culpeppers, and Byron Leftwich's of the world could move from larger market draft pick to smaller market QB of the present. The incentive to save the money would be there for the smaller market teams. In the current system, they can afford to pay the David Garrard and Trent Edwards' of the world mid-level type money despite having no discernable difference between them and the Culpeppers/Leftwich's of the world except that they might become a franchise QB in 2013.

If Campbell earns his extension here, it wouldn't be for Big Ben or Eli type money. It would be for Garrard type money. But that's to an extent, unfair, because Campbell would have had to compete at the level of the Big Bens or Eli's to even have a shot at his contract extension. In the current system, despite the revenue gap between teams, players are still percieved well outside their actual performance level. In a true free market system, the stratification of wealth would help deserving players get multiple oppertunities.

[DCtoAZ]

Gibbs meeting with Zorn .. nothing wrong with that in my mind .. it's been an odd off season, but the more I think about how JC handled himself I really do believe the 10' season is going to be strong .. i'm crossing my fingers for 10-6 !

[GusFrerotte]

Originally Posted by DCtoAZ

Gibbs meeting with Zorn .. nothing wrong with that in my mind .. it's been an odd off season, but the more I think about how JC handled himself I really do believe the 10' season is going to be strong .. i'm crossing my fingers for 10-6 !

Not sure how JC handling the situation really is going to impact an increase in point production. And besides nobody but JC really knows how he feels about the situation. Anybody could put up a good front, just look at our FO.

[schndr_tdd]

Right on the mark with CUTLER,hes a BABY!!!!

[KLHJ2]

I think that you guys are misinterpreting what I said. I said he would either be a backup or out of the league. Maybe I should have said that he will not be a starter after 2010...that was my intent.


Edit: Unless he has a great season, which I don't see happening. Good, maybe, great, no.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Angry

Edit: Unless he has a great season, which I don't see happening. Good, maybe, great, no.

If Campbell does:

338/515, 66%, 23 TD/8 INT, 3,605 yards, 7.0 Y/A: QB Rating of 94.4
(this is my mean projection for Campbell)

Is that "great" or merely good?

Based on last year's offensive environment, he would be 6th in the NFL in QB rating.

[MTK]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

If Campbell does:

338/515, 66%, 23 TD/8 INT, 3,605 yards, 7.0 Y/A: QB Rating of 94.4
(this is my mean projection for Campbell)

Is that "great" or merely good?

Based on last year's offensive environment, he would be 6th in the NFL in QB rating.

He's certainly capable of that type of production.

[44Deezel]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

He's certainly capable of that type of production.

23 TDs, yes. With only 8 picks, no. 23/15 is more reasonable, but I would much rather see that than 13/6.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by 44Deezel

23 TDs, yes. With only 8 picks, no. 23/15 is more reasonable, but I would much rather see that than 13/6.

Why not split your difference and make it 23 TD's, 12 INT's, a passer rating around 90, and, combined with a bad-ass defense, win the division? Many teams would want JC then. In this scenario, I would be angry if the FO did not offer him a big enough contract to keep him.

[MTK]

Originally Posted by 44Deezel

23 TDs, yes. With only 8 picks, no. 23/15 is more reasonable, but I would much rather see that than 13/6.

That would be a big jump in INTs for him.

For his career he has thrown 23 INTs over 36 games. Or .6388 INT for every 1 start. Your prediction has him at .9375 for every 1 start.