Update: McCain Selects Gov. Sarah Palin as Running Mate

[saden1]

Originally Posted by 12thMan

Palin took office in December 2006. Not even two years to date.

You say tomato, I say tomahto, what's the difference of few years between friends eh?

[12thMan]

Originally Posted by saden1

You say tomato, I say tomahto, what's the difference of few years between friends eh?

Exactly.

[FRPLG]

Originally Posted by saden1

Come now, you're saying she's more qualified/experienced than McCain or Obama to be president/vp?

What does it mean to be anti-abortion in the case of rape or incest? It's the most cruel thing I can imagine you can do to a woman after suffering a traumatic event. Oh "I know you have been raped/molest but you got to carry that child to term because [insert crazy religious reason]."

I was correct in my assessment but gentleman as I am I'll just say she is highly disagreeable.

Not at all over McCain but Obama has no more experience than her that is relevant to me. In the end though I think experience is over-rated. No one has experience enough to do this job 100% right and piss 50% of the country.

I just thought your statement was somewhat intellectually dishonest. msheig made a better argument I think.

As to the question of abortion: pro-lifers are just that. They believe in life. A life is a life is a life to them. Killing a life is bad to them. (the previous statement should not be construed to be that of my own)

[BringBackJoeT]

Originally Posted by mheisig

As politically brilliant as I think the selection is, I'm not buying the whole "it will sway Hillary voters" bit.

Anyone who was a Hillary supporter is going to have so many problems with Palin that the only thing Hillary and Palin will have in common is that they're both women.

If that fact alone is enough to completely ignore differences with respect to EVERY other area of policy and approach, then those voters could have been swayed with the promise of cupcakes and the Palin selection was unnecessary.

What I find funny is the reaction to this. Does anyone really expect die-hard Obama fans to suddenly change their position with the Palin selection? Please.

The selection really just fortifies his voting base and is a really good grab at a lot of the independent swing voters. Anyone expecting massive upheaval or for lifetime Democrats to suddenly vote Republican are sorely mistaken.

I didn't say anything about a "massive upheaval" of Dem voters going Republican by virtue of this pick. What seems clear (certainly at this point) is that we're in store for another very close election. Independent voters, to a cliche-like extent, have been identified as key. But from the moment Obama was declared the winner of the D primary, the McCain campaign has identified pissed off Hillary voters as a potential source of some key swing votes, and they have not made any secret of that. Have they banked on getting all 18 million? Of course not. The vast, vast majority of those were cast by dyed-in-the-wool Dems who wouldn't be swayed by a Republican female VP candidate who shares, politically, almost nothing in common with them. But again, given the potentially very small margin of victory that the winner may have, McCain's camp has obviously considered that even a small percentage of Hillary primary voters could, in this election, make a huge difference.

Sure, Gov. Palin, as you say, may "solidify" McCain's base, but she was hardly the only VP candidate who could have. And given her very obvious lack of experience (putting aside for purposes of this point how that experience measures up to Obama's), she can't be said to have been the most experienced VP candidate either. She is also from a traditionally red state (Alaska went to Bush both times), so it's not like this pick was geared toward potentially picking off blue one. So, unless I'm being extremely unfair here, it appears that what the McCain camp liked most about the independently-but-not-comparatively talented Gov. Palin is that she is a woman. What's important about that, for purposes of this campaign? The pissed off Hillary, voters, that's what. The McCain camp is very aware of the very large turnout in the Dem primaries, and understands (as does everyone) that a lot of Hillary fans thought she got screwed, which is why such a big deal was made this past week about how much enthusiasm Hillary would exhibit for Obama in Denver.

Will Gov. Palin appeal to, along with the conservative base, some soccer moms, independents, and possibly a few "greens"? No doubt. But, my point is that what McCain is really after here is just a sliver of those disaffected Hillary voters, who, given their sheer numbers, would possibly make more of a numerical difference in yet another election that will probably be decided by a 1-2% margin.

[12thMan]

Originally Posted by BringBackJoeT

I didn't say anything about a "massive upheaval" of Dem voters going Republican by virtue of this pick. What seems clear (certainly at this point) is that we're in store for another very close election. Independent voters, to a cliche-like extent, have been identified as key. But from the moment Obama was declared the winner of the D primary, the McCain campaign has identified pissed off Hillary voters as a potential source of some key swing votes, and they have not made any secret of that. Have they banked on getting all 18 million? Of course not. The vast, vast majority of those were cast by dyed-in-the-wool Dems who wouldn't be swayed by a Republican female VP candidate who shares, politically, almost nothing in common with them. But again, given the potentially very small margin of victory that the winner may have, McCain's camp has obviously considered that even a small percentage of Hillary primary voters could, in this election, make a huge difference.

Sure, Gov. Palin, as you say, may "solidify" McCain's base, but she was hardly the only VP candidate who could have. And given her very obvious lack of experience (putting aside for purposes of this point how that experience measures up to Obama's), she can't be said to have been the most experienced VP candidate either. She is also from a traditionally red state (Alaska went to Bush both times), so it's not like this pick was geared toward potentially picking off blue one. So, unless I'm being extremely unfair here, it appears that what the McCain camp liked most about the independently-but-not-comparatively talented Gov. Palin is that she is a woman. What's important about that, for purposes of this campaign? The pissed off Hillary, voters, that's what. The McCain camp is very aware of the very large turnout in the Dem primaries, and understands (as does everyone) that a lot of Hillary fans thought she got screwed, which is why such a big deal was made this past week about how much enthusiasm Hillary would exhibit for Obama in Denver.

Will Gov. Palin appeal to, along with the conservative base, some soccer moms, independents, and possibly a few "greens"? No doubt. But, my point is that what McCain is really after here is just a sliver of those disaffected Hillary voters, who, given their sheer numbers, would possibly make more of a numerical difference in yet another election that will probably be decided by a 1-2% margin.

Very sensible post. I think the big risk McCain assumes with this pick is that the remaining disaffected Hillary supporters, that are still out there, will remain upset for another two months. In my opinion, he is pre-supposing that their collective anger won't wear off and that they will hold that posture all the way until Novemeber 4th. That's one helluva gamble if you ask me. But the one question that Palan will have to unequicvocably answer is, are you ready to be Commander in Chief if put in that situation. Joe Biden, by virtue of his own bid for POTUS, has been vetted in that regard.

[firstdown]

Originally Posted by saden1

If Obama is inexperienced, Palin is woefully inexperienced. How is McCain going to play the experience and national security card? Seriously, at 72 he has one foot in the grave and his VP was nothing more than a mayor of a small town one and half years ago. Palin is also batshit crazy...no abortion in case of rape and incest! She'll get the Hillary vote alright.



I'm looking forward to the VP debate.

While it seems crazy that someone would be against abortion in case of rape and incest its really not that crazy when you think about how they feel. If a person believes that its a living baby (or what ever they call it) then they would believe this even if it is rap or incest and that makes sense. She does back her idea's with action as she gave birth to a baby with down sindrom (spelling). I read that around 80% of children found to have down cindrom are aborted. That hugh of a number really shocked me but that could be because a buddy has a child with this and I know he would have never even considered abortion.

[firstdown]

Well while this has been fun its slow at work and I'm going home. Good Day

[NM Redskin]

Originally Posted by Buster

She just gave an incredible speech and even gave credit to Ms. Clinton for furthering the progress of women. She told about her accomplishments of holding people accountable in government, her great experience and qualifications, and how her son joined the army.

She is infinitely more qualified than Obama with all of her executive experience and she has a strong set of morals on top of that. She;s a great speaker too and did nothing to trash her opponents.

McCain looks like a genius now.

[saden1]

Originally Posted by FRPLG

Not at all over McCain but Obama has no more experience than her that is relevant to me. In the end though I think experience is over-rated. No one has experience enough to do this job 100% right and piss 50% of the country.

I just thought your statement was somewhat intellectually dishonest. msheig made a better argument I think.

As to the question of abortion: pro-lifers are just that. They believe in life. A life is a life is a life to them. Killing a life is bad to them. (the previous statement should not be construed to be that of my own)

Why is my statement intellectually dishonest? I simply said McCain can't play the experience and national security card he has been playing given his VP pick. I mean look at his ads. As I have said countless times, I believe experience is overrated and overplayed. You can have all the experience in the world and still lack sound judgment and have poor policy.

[mheisig]

Originally Posted by BringBackJoeT

I didn't say anything about a "massive upheaval" of Dem voters going Republican by virtue of this pick. What seems clear (certainly at this point) is that we're in store for another very close election. Independent voters, to a cliche-like extent, have been identified as key. But from the moment Obama was declared the winner of the D primary, the McCain campaign has identified pissed off Hillary voters as a potential source of some key swing votes, and they have not made any secret of that. Have they banked on getting all 18 million? Of course not. The vast, vast majority of those were cast by dyed-in-the-wool Dems who wouldn't be swayed by a Republican female VP candidate who shares, politically, almost nothing in common with them. But again, given the potentially very small margin of victory that the winner may have, McCain's camp has obviously considered that even a small percentage of Hillary primary voters could, in this election, make a huge difference.

Sure, Gov. Palin, as you say, may "solidify" McCain's base, but she was hardly the only VP candidate who could have. And given her very obvious lack of experience (putting aside for purposes of this point how that experience measures up to Obama's), she can't be said to have been the most experienced VP candidate either. She is also from a traditionally red state (Alaska went to Bush both times), so it's not like this pick was geared toward potentially picking off blue one. So, unless I'm being extremely unfair here, it appears that what the McCain camp liked most about the independently-but-not-comparatively talented Gov. Palin is that she is a woman. What's important about that, for purposes of this campaign? The pissed off Hillary, voters, that's what. The McCain camp is very aware of the very large turnout in the Dem primaries, and understands (as does everyone) that a lot of Hillary fans thought she got screwed, which is why such a big deal was made this past week about how much enthusiasm Hillary would exhibit for Obama in Denver.

Will Gov. Palin appeal to, along with the conservative base, some soccer moms, independents, and possibly a few "greens"? No doubt. But, my point is that what McCain is really after here is just a sliver of those disaffected Hillary voters, who, given their sheer numbers, would possibly make more of a numerical difference in yet another election that will probably be decided by a 1-2% margin.

I think I agree with you in principle, I may just not agree as to the margin.

I simply can't fathom of an individual who would have voted for Hillary who would now vote for Palin. Again, the only "issue" they remotely have in common is that they're both women.

Again, I'm sure their may be a small number of people who would go from Hillary to Palin solely on that basis, but my gut feeling is the number is so infintesimally small that even in a close race (which I agree it will be) it wouldn't matter. I can't imagine that number being in the tens of thousands, let alone millions.

I suppose if the race gets down to one candidate winning by a margin of a few thousand votes than maybe it will be important, but even when elections are close they're not THAT close.

You never know though - we'll only know when the whole thing is said and done come November.

[BleedBurgundy]

Yeah, i think the only voters who go from Clinton to McCain will most likely do so out of spite for the (in their mind) slights Hillary took from Obama.

[wilsowilso]

This election is probably not going to be as close as some people think. If the conservative base stayed home in November(McCain has always struggled to appeal to Evangelicals and the like) the election might have been a landslide. This choice just gets the conservative Christian vote solidified so that the GOP doesn't get completely embarrased. The GOP doesn't have a chance to win IMO. They just need to keep it close.

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by wilsowilso

This election is probably not going to be as close as some people think. If the conservative base stayed home in November(McCain has always struggled to appeal to Evangelicals and the like) the election might have been a landslide. This choice just gets the conservative Christian vote solidified so that the GOP doesn't get completely embarrased. The GOP doesn't have a chance to win IMO. They just need to keep it close.

Not so fast my friend.....

War Room - Salon.com

You're right on about the conservative Christian vote, but the rest of your analysis is way off.

Angry Clinton supporters toast McCain, roast Obama - CNN.com

Hillary Supporters for McCain: Gov. Sarah Palin: Presidential Material

Ha! Say the Online Hillary Supporters | The Trail | washingtonpost.com

The first article is from CNN (no bastion of conservatism) and these numbers don't bode well for Obama, "But there is some bad news for Obama. The poll showed that 66 percent of Clinton supporters -- registered Democrats who want Clinton as the nominee -- are now backing Obama. That's down from 75 percent in the end of June. Twenty-seven percent of them now say they'll support McCain, up from 16 percent in late June."

Let's look at those numbers. Hillary was claiming approximately 18 million votes in the primary, for the sake of being conservative (pun intended), let's say it was only 10 million. Now polls are showing approximately 27% are favoring McCain, not staying home, favoring McCain. Being conservative again, let's say the real number is 20%, that translates into 2 million votes for McCain that are coming from the Democrat base. That is a 4 million vote swing. If those votes are in battleground areas (very likely) the media will be forecasting McCain the winner before midnight on election night.

This was before McCain's VP pick of Palin. I know the other links are just blogs, but I think many are underestimating the Hillary effect. IMO McCain will win, largely due to support from Hillary supporters (or non-support of them for Obama). It will be similar to Bill Clinton's win over Bush I, where Perot took enough of the conservative votes to allow Clinton to win.

[wilsowilso]

Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33

This was before McCain's VP pick of Palin. I know the other links are just blogs, but I think many are underestimating the Hillary effect. IMO McCain will win, largely due to support from Hillary supporters (or non-support of them for Obama). It will be similar to Bill Clinton's win over Bush I, where Perot took enough of the conservative votes to allow Clinton to win.

Obama doesn't at all need the support of these so called Hillary Clinton supporters. These are supporters from the primary election season(the tracking will change for the general election seeing as how many states allowed Republicans to actually vote in Democratic primaries). Voters that are upset enough that Clinton didn't win the nomination that they would actually cross party lines and or vote for a woman who quite literally is on the exact opposite side of the aisle on just about every major issue are actually just voters who were part of the GOP base to begin with. The only reason they were going to vote for a Democrat was simply because Hillary was a woman. It's all about core issues and the number of so called "Hillary effect" defectors that are actually true democrats who would completely disregard whatever issues are most important to their everyday lives just because they are bitter is not going to be very dramatic IMO.

Also, the choice of Palin(pro life) basically guarantees that anyone in those polls who's got concerns about the core issue that a woman should have the right to choose will vote for Obama. No matter how mad you might be nobody's giving up basic constitutionally protected rights just to prove a point.

[NM Redskin]

What will be interesting to see, is will the Hilary supporters support Palin ,after Hilary starts to slam Palin? If I was the Dems, I would send Hilary after her.