NFL conference championship weekend

[DYoungJelly]

Originally Posted by punch it in

The True Stats Of NFL Overtime
Stats on Overtime Coin Tosses (1974-2003)

The NFL has had 325 overtime games since the rule was adopted in 1974. The results:

Both teams have had possession 235 times (72.3%).
The team that has won the toss has won 169 times (52.0%).
The team that has lost the toss has won 141 times (43.4%).
223 games were decided by a field goal (68.6%).
86 games were decided by a TD (26.5%).
One game was decided by a safety (0.3%).
There have been 15 ties (4.6%).
It seems fair but these numbers are somewhat misleading because in 1994 a rule changed moved the kickoff back 5 yards to the 30 yard line (those numbers were based on data from 1973-2003). Since then, it's been about 60%. Prior to the rule change, the coin toss had no predictive value for deciding who would eventually win the game. Since 1994, the coin flip winner has a clear advantage.

TL;DR There is a fairly significant statistical advantage for the team that wins the toss. More than 25% of teams that lost the coin toss never touched the ball. Since 1994, the team that won the overtime coin toss won the game 34.4 percent of the time on the first possession and have won about 60% of the time total.

Kevin Sheehan just said on today's podcast that since the rule change only 19.7% of games which went to overtime were won or lost on the first possession by a TD score.

The team that wins the toss does win 52% of the games but how does that matter if both teams get to possess the ball on 80.3% of overtime games?

I just don't think this is a big deal.

A coin toss didn't decide the game, KC's bottom of the barrel defense did.

There were three 3rd and 10s and Brady converted.

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one.