Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)

I know they had to make this move, but let's not forget what put them in this position in the first place...

This is what happens when you depend on 35 year-old guy season after season who has spent 13 years at the most violent position on the football field. All this crap about being a "great locker room leader" sure sounds great now, huh? Suppose this front office hadn't ignored the defensive end position at the upper end of the draft for the past, oh, ELEVEN years?

So what we've done is replace a 35 year-old guy with a 34 year-old guy who'd rather be making movies and they've lost a high draft pick in the process.
Wonderful.

Though I can see your point....2 major factors...Jason Taylor is WAY better than Daniels...count the probowls AND we had no other legitimate option.

James, Jackson, Wilson and pick up someone off the waiver wire.

Are you out of your mind?
James in injured, Jackson is a nobody, Wilson is strictly a pass specialist.
We needed a valid starter, options were limited to zero.

I'm not thrilled about giving up a 2 but we really didn't have any other options rather than hoping one of our guys (or a FA) suddenly got 2-3 times more effective overnight

I know they had to make this move, but let's not forget what put them in this position in the first place...

This is what happens when you depend on 35 year-old guy season after season who has spent 13 years at the most violent position on the football field. All this crap about being a "great locker room leader" sure sounds great now, huh? Suppose this front office hadn't ignored the defensive end position at the upper end of the draft for the past, oh, ELEVEN years?

So what we've done is replace a 35 year-old guy with a 34 year-old guy who'd rather be making movies and they've lost a high draft pick in the process.

Wonderful.

I see your points. But it's not like Daniels has been deteriorating over the years. He's missed one game in the last three years. It's not unreasonable to think he had at least a year left. Plus, while some want to dismiss him as a practice squad scrub, the Redskins were counting on Buzbee to take a major step this year at least from a depth standpoint.

On a somewhat related note, will be interesting to see how much PT Lorenzo Alexander gets against the run on the d-line now.

I saw this news, and my eyes nearly popped out of my head.

Good work, front office.

For example, if we consider Jon Kitna to be the standard for a starting QB, with most teams having better options, (I just picked a guy who's got a readily available skill set, and doesn't do too much to hurt his team), we can estimate that Tom Brady was worth about 5 wins more than Kitna-level last year alone. Essentially saying that the Patriots, with the same schedule, same team, but Jon Kitna at QB, would have been an 11-5 team.

The value metrics are readily available at places like footballoutsiders.com (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/index.php), profootballreference.com's (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=561) blog, KC Joyner's articles (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=3470413&campaign=rsssrch&source=kc_joyner) on ESPN.com, and Brian Burke's Advanced Football Stats blog (http://www.bbnflstats.com/2008/07/why-chargers-defense-will-decline-in-08.html).

There's always going to be slight disagreement among the systems about certain players value, but generally these four sources paint me a pretty good picture of just how valuable a player is.

Anyway, I'm most concerned with how valuable a rookies' first 4 years in the league are for a few reasons: 1) it's a good indicator of how good he will be, and 2) that's how long in which his draft position will determine how much he exceeds his value by.

For a second rounder, in his 2nd-4th years in the league, we know that he's likely to be better than a replacement level player, and a key contributor on this team. Everything I've done says that a second round pick who doesn't bust out of the league, but also fails to become a superstar will be worth not quite a win per season on his rookie deal.

So I'm estimating over a large sample when I say the average second rounder is worth 2-3 wins over his rookie deal. About a third of the second round selections will be less than that, and a third will be more than that. But that's the expectation for a second round selection, and expectation is really the only thing we are dealing with here.
IMO these numbers are pretty much a wild approximation or SWAG and not useful at all, but you're quoting them like they're well accepted throughout the media and sports world. The QB rating formula is less complicated and tells you a lot more than this stuff. These ratings give little account to the DL & OL because most of what they do doesn't show on stats.

Stats are important, but the interpretations and extrapolations made from these stats tells a FO guy, GM, or coach next to nothing that they don't already know. T. Brady is better than Kitna....my 15 yr. old could tell you that. Hell, the computer programmers at EA know that. How do you account for a QB or WR who plays on a team with a bad OL, how about a good CB with a bad DL. Would Archie Manning have been a Peyton Manning if he wasn't on bad teams? Who knows? Stats are important but IMO these are taking the interpretation too far.

Bottom line is; we gave up the equivalent of probably the # 50 overall pick in the draft, under duress, for a Pro Bowl caliber player at DE. If JT is productive for two seasons, not only is he helping the pass defense, but he's given us some flexibilty in when/how we address needs at CB, DE, DT and LB in the 2009 & 2010 off-seasons.

Well, the exact win total is based on some work I've been doing to convert value to team into a win estimate.

For example, if we consider Jon Kitna to be the standard for a starting QB, with most teams having better options, (I just picked a guy who's got a readily available skill set, and doesn't do too much to hurt his team), we can estimate that Tom Brady was worth about 5 wins more than Kitna-level last year alone. Essentially saying that the Patriots, with the same schedule, same team, but Jon Kitna at QB, would have been an 11-5 team.

The value metrics are readily available at places like footballoutsiders.com (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/index.php), profootballreference.com's (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=561) blog, KC Joyner's articles (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=3470413&campaign=rsssrch&source=kc_joyner) on ESPN.com, and Brian Burke's Advanced Football Stats blog (http://www.bbnflstats.com/2008/07/why-chargers-defense-will-decline-in-08.html).

There's always going to be slight disagreement among the systems about certain players value, but generally these four sources paint me a pretty good picture of just how valuable a player is.

Anyway, I'm most concerned with how valuable a rookies' first 4 years in the league are for a few reasons: 1) it's a good indicator of how good he will be, and 2) that's how long in which his draft position will determine how much he exceeds his value by.

For a second rounder, in his 2nd-4th years in the league, we know that he's likely to be better than a replacement level player, and a key contributor on this team. Everything I've done says that a second round pick who doesn't bust out of the league, but also fails to become a superstar will be worth not quite a win per season on his rookie deal.

So I'm estimating over a large sample when I say the average second rounder is worth 2-3 wins over his rookie deal. About a third of the second round selections will be less than that, and a third will be more than that. But that's the expectation for a second round selection, and expectation is really the only thing we are dealing with here.

I'd be interested to hear what kind of analysis you're doing to strip out the covariances involved with the multiple variables driving team performance. That's the big reason sabermetrics has not caught on in football. With baseball, you can normalize your data set rather easily because in the end, it largely boils down to a pitcher vs hitter matchup, with a few variables like day vs night, score, and situation to adjust for. But in football, the QB's performance depend's upon the line's ability to block the defense, the WRs' ability to get open, the effectiveness of the running game, the score, the quarter, etcetera. It's hard enough to quantify some of these variables, and even harder to mathematically formulate the covariance quotients to effectively tease them out and normalize your data. Have you done anything on this front?

Here are my thoughts

1. We paid too much with a 2nd and a 6th....I dont know what that amounts too by draft points...but its probably close to a low 1st for 2 years max.

...

5 This one really pisses me off.....our training staff.....last year we lost tons of guys for cramps and muscle pulls...injuries attributable to hydration and stretching.....NOW we lose 2 guys that arguably could have been avoided if they were loosened up more.
I dont blame the training staff....but...this is definately a trend that has not stopped which almost killed our season last year.

6 I love the fact that JT did that dancing thing....why? because he is flexible and has zero body fat...that means he's fit and unlikely to suffer bogus "freak" non contact injuries.

Even though the cons include a weaker run d and a loss of a very valuable 2nd rounder, I hesitantly approve due to the fact that there was NO ALTERNATIVE.
But I am still pissed at the training staff for sucking so bad.


On point 1. The truth it is a 6th rounder is worth nothing on those charts. The 34th pick plus the first 6th round pick is "worth" less than the 32nd pick. Next the value of a 6th rounder in 2 years is not worth a sixth rounder in the current year according to charts. So that sixth is more like a 7th and the best 7th pick and the 33rd pick are less than the 32nd pick according to the charts. So really that 6th rounder is worth next to nothing.

Point 5. I agree. It has to do with conditioning. I would blame the players over the staff tho. It probably has to do more with their offseason programs than anything.

Point 6. yeah, I always though it was dumb of him to do that stupid dancing show. I mean he was saying on the show that he was dancing 8 9 hours a day. He is bound to have lost weight and lost muscle. A smart player would save that for retirement.
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Honestly, we were forced into making this move. We needed to. Our D-line has been shit. AC helped us move from 19 sacks in 06 to like 33 in 07. This will help us move even farther. JT will finish out his contract and Vinny said that he expects him to play longer than that with the skins. This is a great move and again i have to say our staff did a great job. How do you lose a player before i eat lunch and have the best DE of the past 8 years signed before i eat dinner? On top of that we didn't give more than other teams were offering. On top of that our organization left enough cap to make a move like this. Good job on not blowing the cap before we actually needed it.

CAN"T WAIT TO SEE JASON IN CAMP!

taylor was by far the best option, and i'm shocked how many people here are complaining that we should have kept the 2nd and let wilson ruin our season... what a terrible idea.

yeah, we need to draft a DE, but at #21 it's hard to get a great player, and they (obviously) didn't like merling all that much. I rather trade down and get players the team actually does want than settle.

we'll need to draft someone eventually though, and it is pretty silly how long the team's waited to do so...

I'd be interested to hear what kind of analysis you're doing to strip out the covariances involved with the multiple variables driving team performance. That's the big reason sabermetrics has not caught on in football. With baseball, you can normalize your data set rather easily because in the end, it largely boils down to a pitcher vs hitter matchup, with a few variables like day vs night, score, and situation to adjust for. But in football, the QB's performance depend's upon the line's ability to block the defense, the WRs' ability to get open, the effectiveness of the running game, the score, the quarter, etcetera. It's hard enough to quantify some of these variables, and even harder to mathematically formulate the covariance quotients to effectively tease them out and normalize your data. Have you done anything on this front?

yeah, i watch the game.




but i did make a neat equation if you're interested:
good players = win more games.

yay!

good players = win more games.

That is some funny sh#t!