Cerrato Vaguely Explains Draft Strategy (with Questionable Evidence)

Vinny Cerrato = The Peter Angelos (Baltimore Orioles owner) of the NFL?

I think GTripp said it best. The core philosophy of drafting the best player available is a very sound philosophy. However the problem is the guy creating the draft board (Mr Cerrato), either conciously or unconsiously, is constantly overvaluing skill players and undervaluing the guys up front.

Personally I don't believe in coincidences and I think the BPA available explanation for the three pass catchers is a PR stunt meant to justify the fact that the Redskins drafted for a weird combination of want and need rather then truly going after the BPA. To be honest if we had really gone after the BPA we probably would have ended up with at least a new linebacker and a center, as generally those are two positions that can see more talented players fall through the cracks.

The teams track record in going after recievers since Snyder got the team is a testement to how badly the team wants a Randy Moss, T.O., or god forbid an Ocho Cinco within their ranks. Yet I hope that with all the bitching from the fans this season the team will finally start to take the status of our front lines seriously, and right now I'm hoping that come April either Michael Oher, Terrance Cody, or Michael Johnson is a Redskin. Either way this obcession with finding skill players has to be put on hold till we get our priorities in order and right now that priority is our front lines.

Keep in mind I have no objection to Vinny's 2nd round trade down. Personally I thought it was one of the great moves in the draft.

So in retrospect, knowing how the draft turned out and looking at how this season turned out I think our ideal draft should have been as follows.

34th - Jordy Nelson - WR - Kansas State - They get the big productive Reciever they want, complete with a team first attitude. Not that Thomas has this problem, then again Kelly might but he hasn't shown it since he's been here.
48th - Pat Sims - DT - Auburn - We get the big guy up the middle to help create a push and take pressure off our DE's.
51st - Jerremy Zutah - OL - Rutgers- Would have been perfect for us this year, especially considering he can play everywhere. Probably would be starting at RT this week.


I also thought the trade down effort was a great move, but I didn't care for the 2 WRs and 1 TE picks at the time. I was hoping for the WR/DT/OL combo you show!
Best assessment of this entire thread! Great job Dirtbag! Major props!

You guys realize that this team isn't going to the promise land unless they fire Vinny, and hire a new president and GM. In other words, redoing the entire front office.

Do you just block out 1998 ? Okay it was a terrible season but the guy wasn't even playing football when we picked him up . He was drafted by the chargers in 1994 was cut in 1995 played for the British Columbian lions for a while then came into the skins as the emergency starter and put up massive stats for a redskins QB ..

3,441 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions and ran in 2 more behind a very leaky cobbled together offensive line.

We offered him 12 million over 4 years ...he went to the rams ...

That was also the year we "found" Stephen Davis, though he was mostly used as a FB making holes for Skip Hicks ...

Okay I have a counter question ... did we have a glut of tall athletic WR's on the team before the 2008 draft ... ? I get your point You can if you solely go off PFW draft preview end up getting into trouble drafting BPA (see the lions), but the problem with the Lions is they did nothing to sure up the rest of the team and did nothing to really scout the players they were drafting and were wowed by the highlight reels . You cannot ignore need but really in these days of free agency unless you are picking in the top 5-7 then you shouldn't be going into the draft with a desperate need position ...

No, we did not. But I'm not talking last year. Last year WR was a need(though TE wasn't). I'm talking the philosophy in general

But my point is what if a tall athletic WR is the best available player in the upcoming draft when it's time for the Skin's to pick?

I think GTripp said it better than me ... it is a combination of need and BPA .

If you draft soley on need then you run the real risk of reaching for players of not good value .

If you go solely off BPA then you have chance of being Matt Millen .

The trick comes how you grade the players . The grade should be based on the kinds of players and ages you have on your roster and the grades players have coming out of the draft .

If you have a pro bowl starter then the grade for any player has to start low... if you have an aging average injury plagued starter then the grade at that position should start higher .

Then you have to go about grading players from the draft and how each team does that is different . Remember Parcells for example graded Cooley as a 6/7th round pick but picked Frasno in the second round ..

Usiong this year as an example the highest rated players based on the roster probably included WR,DT, OG and LB .

Had Mayo or Branden Albert fallen in the fist to 21 or within reach I am pretty confident they would have been the guy, we had shown interest in both . I think it is interesting that of all the player Vinny singled out we Calais Campbell and Philip Merling which makes me think we were at least looking at them . The FO spent time with Merling when the scouted Kelly . It is possible that the Skins were looking at Campbell at 50 .

Another problem with the draft you can target a player think he would go around a specific part of the draft and then see him picked one place ahead of you whcih meens your assesment was right but is fustrating .

OL and DL are notoriously hard to draft because thier value varies from team to team depending on what they are asked to do and the system they ran in collage . Look around the league and you see a smattering of high round picks that turn to nothing ( Jacob Rodgers - taken in the 2nd round with Parcells out of the league in 2 years) and undrafted FAs who start for years (Saturday of the Colts for example) .

I don't think we were looking specifically for a RT, i think they thought they had a guy in Heyer who could come in and be solid ... he is a one dimesnional player however and his run blocking does not compare to his pass blocking skills . any OL prospects they were looking at were primarily guards with both Thomas and Kendell reaching the end of the line.

I also don't think draft picks would have helped the line right now . I think the problem lies in overcomplicated blocking schemes and injuries to key players on the line (Samuels) . If you loose a top 5 LT the rest of the line is going to look an awful lot worse no matter who comes in to replace him .

To answer your question though if a stud athletic WR is availble when we pick he must at least be considered . To dismiss the player out of hand is irresponsible, but you have to look at who is on the roster and if you think Thomas and Kelly are the guys for the future ..