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Originally Posted by Bubba305-ST21-
yea your right about kerrigan, i read that wrong. Your right, age is definitely something to think about but not this young imo. I just dont think it is something you can predict when a guys ability starts to fall.
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You are right, it's definitely tougher to predict player decline than player development. I do not doubt that NFL teams have advanced systems that help frame their own film evaluations in context that lead to conclusions such as "if Donovan McNabb has anything left, he's not going to be able to show it in our QB-dependant system."
As some guy with the internet who doesn't have anything but stats, game tape, and scout opinion to lean on, I still go way more off gut feel with regards to "is player X done as an NFL starter?" than I would like. For example: is Chris Cooley done as a starting TE in the NFL? Probably. But how much money would I actually put on that opinion? Not much. He's only going to be 30 this year. It's just that he was last an elite TE at age 26.
But, by far, the most reliable figures when predicting decline are a guys age and how long he's been in the league. After that (and to back your point), it's a lot about looking for trends where they may not exist -- hunting statistical ghosts, as it were, and seeing if any vital skills are diminishing.
Hines Ward doesn't catch more than half of his balls more than five yards downfield anymore, so he's probably done as a starting NFL receiver. Sometimes I get it right: I thought Torry Holt was toast after the 2008 season, and he was. Other times, I say that Brett Favre is done after that same season, and get it completely wrong.