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Living Legend
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Evanston, IL
Age: 37
Posts: 15,994
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Re: Redskins: 2012 Off-Season-Free Agency/Trades
Quote:
As some guy with the internet who doesn't have anything but stats, game tape, and scout opinion to lean on, I still go way more off gut feel with regards to "is player X done as an NFL starter?" than I would like. For example: is Chris Cooley done as a starting TE in the NFL? Probably. But how much money would I actually put on that opinion? Not much. He's only going to be 30 this year. It's just that he was last an elite TE at age 26. But, by far, the most reliable figures when predicting decline are a guys age and how long he's been in the league. After that (and to back your point), it's a lot about looking for trends where they may not exist -- hunting statistical ghosts, as it were, and seeing if any vital skills are diminishing. Hines Ward doesn't catch more than half of his balls more than five yards downfield anymore, so he's probably done as a starting NFL receiver. Sometimes I get it right: I thought Torry Holt was toast after the 2008 season, and he was. Other times, I say that Brett Favre is done after that same season, and get it completely wrong.
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