How good will JaMarcus Russell be at the Pro Level?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by GMScud

So I suppose my next question should be what in the past year has changed the way you evaluate a NFL QB prospect? Where did this knowledge come from?

I'm not asking b/c I question your evaluations, I'm asking b/c I like your posts and for the most part I agree with your assessments and opinions.

I for one thought Young would be the best of the 2006 QB draft picks. The jury is still out, but in the end I think it will be Leinart. That new stadium along with Wisenhunt and Grimm, I see Arizona emerging as a solid player in the NFC for years to come.

I got into statistical projections and correlations, mainly.

I've come to realize that most of what scouts do for a living is a complete sham for job security to make their work seem like an art, when in reality all it really is would be lazy, shoddy work.

It's not hard at all to project a QB. They all do so much at the college level, I mean we have so much data on them that there should be no excuse for missing badly on a QB prospect. It should be twice as hard to pick at any other position than QB, and for whatever reason, scouts still make mistakes at QB.

I agree with you that Leinart will be the best of the 2006 class. Along with Rivers and Roethlisberger, they will emerge as three of the top QBs in the league. Campbell should be just a stride below that class, around Carson Palmer's level. Brady Quinn should also be an upper echilon QB, but I don't think he will crack the top 5 in the league at any point in his career.

Since 2004, a plethora of great QBs have come into the league, so the teams that are going to be perenial losers from here on out are the ones who don't pick up a great young QB. That's why passing on Quinn would be such a mistake, especially for the Raiders.

It continues to baffle me that at a position as make or break as Quarterback, teams won't do everything they can to make sure they aren't taking a future bust. But that's what seperates the men from the boys, I guess.