Using a high pick on QB.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by irish

Looking at JC's stats vs Kitna and extrapolating out to account for JC's injury, its obvious that JC would have ended up having about an average season (assuming Kitna is really the average). So all those saying JC was playing above average, the stats dont bear that out.

I think its more than fair to evaluate whether a player is worth having given up 3 draft picks even with the little playing time JC has had. Teams doet give up 3 draft picks for player that might play 3 or 4 years down the line, they give those up for players that will be starting and making an impact by week 10. The fact that JC has sat around for 3 years and played so average when he did finally get the chance to play makes it look even more questionable as to whether he has what it takes. JC may very well end up an average starter for the Skins or some other team but the Skins didnt give up 3 draft picks for an average QB. Those are available aplenty in lower rounds or via free agency.

Fair enough, as I said before though, you CAN make the argument that JC's season getting cut 4 games short prevented his numbers from regressing back towards the mean. I mean, that idea makes sense, but it is what it is: a very pessimistic view of a season by a third year QB.

Regarding the picks, I think the nature of the franchise QB makes it so that getting one trumps most value that was given to get him. In the case of the Redskins, the issue is not whether Campbell should have been the 25th pick in the 2005 draft nor does it have much to do with Campbell in particular. For the Redskins, the alternative was drafting Campbell with the 9th overall pick in the draft...or trading the next years first round selection plus a third rounder for the pick that would become Campbell. Because Campbell graded out as a late first, early second guy for most teams, and the Redskins valued him much higher than that, it made sense for the team to use their 2006 1st rounder a year early (would have been the 23rd pick)...which is exactly what they did.

Here's the bigger point. He's was a third year player. By my measures he was above average, and by yours he was average. He's not nearly as good as he will be, which is why I think you are premature in calling this a make or break year for him. Nobody in the world thinks he's done growing, and that's not going to change if we see more of the same from him this year.